The Heat Builds In

Brad Leave a comment

Winnipeg will see hot days ahead as an an upper ridge intensifies over the Prairies.

Winnipeg will see daytime highs climb to the mid-30s over the coming days as warmer air settles over the region. This warmth will be sustained by an amplifying upper ridge over the Prairies that will also keep conditions mainly sunny through the Red River Valley. Overnight lows will sit near 20 °C over the next couple days, then dip into the mid-teens on Sunday night as a cold front slumps into the region.

RDPS 500mb Height and Wind Speed Forecast valid 18Z Sunday July 18, 2021
An upper ridge will continue to amplify of the Prairies this weekend, extending northwards from the subtropical high over the western United States.

Winds will be breezy out of the south the next few days, picking up into the 20–30 km/h range during the day and easing at night. While conditions will be generally dry, an isolated pop-up shower or two can’t be ruled out over the coming days. The most organized chance for rain will be Sunday night when a cold front moves into the region.

Hazy conditions will persist over the coming days, with occasional periods of local smoke possible (the former being when smoke is mainly aloft with low concentrations near the ground, while the latter is when visibilities become reduced and the odour is noticeable).

The hot temperatures, relatively low dew points, and breezy winds will exacerbate the already poor fire conditions. Note that both the City of Winnipeg and the Province of Manitoba have fire bans in effect.

Long Range Outlook

Temperatures will cool slightly for Monday behind the cold front, then temperatures will rebound back towards the 30s on Tuesday. Models are starting to have a little more disagreement on how next week will progress. While all models had a significant heat wave for Winnipeg, newer model runs have become a bit more aggressive with the cooler air, keeping Winnipeg’s temperatures in the upper 20s or low 30s through much of next week. The hot weather will still be around, though, with highs climbing back into the mid- to upper-30s nearby to the west.

It’s hard to say at this point whether the new trend in the model will be right or not. If Winnipeg stays on the cooler side of this feature, then it will also mean the city will be more likely to see chances for rain or thunderstorms throughout the week. It’s impossible to discern at this point, though, so for now we’ll keep an eye on how this system evolves as the cold front slumps through the Prairies.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 13 °C.

Another Heat Wave Ramps Up

Brad Leave a comment

Winnipeg will see temperatures climbing back towards the mid-30s this week as another heat wave is set to develop over the region.

Winnipeg will move into another extended period of hot, dry weather over the coming days. An upper ridge will gradually amplify over the rest of the week, producing another broad area of clear skies with increasingly hot weather.

Before the warmer weather starts, the city will see one more “cool” day. Skies will be a bit cloudier this morning with a few showers or thunderstorms drifting into the Red River Valley. Most of this activity will pass to the south of Winnipeg, but there is a chance for the city to see a shower or thunderstorm in the first half of the day. Skies will clear for the afternoon with temperatures climbing to a high near 29 °C. Skies will stay mainly clear tonight with a low near 15 °C.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Friday July 16, 2021
Very warm temperatures will develop over the southern Prairies on Friday.

The rest of the week will bring warming temperatures and mainly clear skies. As the upper ridge amplifies, daytime highs will climb to 35 °C by Friday. Overnight lows will warm to around 20 °C. Winds will be light on Thursday, but southerlies will pick up to around 20 km/h on Friday.

Hazy skies will linger through the region this week.

Long Range Outlook

Temperatures will stay in the mid- to upper-30s through the weekend and right through next week. While there may be the periodic chance of showers or thunderstorms, little to no organized rainfall potential is in the forecast.

The hot, dry conditions will continue to worsen the drought over the region and push more regions into an extreme fire danger. While smoke plumes can be difficult to forecast beyond short time ranges, it’s highly likely that southern Manitoba will continue to see varying amounts of smoke moving through the region.

Drink lots of water, check on those who may not be able to protect themselves from the heat as well, and stay safe!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 13 °C.

Hot Weather Continues

Brad Leave a comment

Hot and increasingly dry conditions will continue to be the weather story for Winnipeg and the Red River Valley.

It’s only going to get drier across the Red River Valley this week as intense summer heat bakes the region. Winnipeg will see highs hovering around 30 or 31 °C through the first half of the week with lows in the upper teens.

Winds will be breezy out of the south today with southerly winds of 30–40 km/h picking up this morning. A trough will push across the region today, and while it supported widespread thunderstorms overnight, it will be less active as it moves into the Red River Valley. Winnipeg will see a chance of showers or thunderstorms beginning around lunch and persisting until early evening. If any thunderstorms are able to develop, they will have a small chance of producing severe hazards with primary threats of damaging wind and/or hail.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Wednesday July 12, 2021
Winnipeg’s “cooling off” this week will be to highs near 30 °C. Hotter temperatures will return later this week.

Behind this trough, winds will shift to the northwest and then ease overnight. The northwesterly flow will usher in smokier conditions to the region once again. This time, the smoke will be coming from fires burning over northern Saskatchewan.

Tuesday and Wednesday will each bring light north-northeast winds and only a few clouds. The smoke, however, will likely stick around. While near-surface conditions will improve a bit, quite a bit of smoke will likely linger aloft over the region, casting that familiar slight orange hue under hazy skies.

Long Range Outlook

Another surge of hot air will move into the region for the second half of the week. Daytime highs will climb towards the mid-30s by the end of the week with overnight lows near 20 °C. While a couple shortwaves may meander over the region, an amplifying upper ridge should also keep the clouds at bay.

The forecasts show no notable precipitation for the Winnipeg area in the second half of the week or the weekend.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 13 °C.

Hot Conditions Return to Southern Manitoba

Brad Leave a comment

An upper ridge will bring hot summer weather back to southern Manitoba this weekend.

Another very warm air mass building into the region will send temperatures in Winnipeg back into the low 30s this weekend. Alongside the heat, an upper ridge building across the Prairies will keep skies mainly clear over the next few days.

A weak ridge of high pressure draped across southern Manitoba will also keep winds light the next couple days. Winnipeg should see a bit of wind by Sunday afternoon, but only southerlies to around 20 km/h.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Sunday July 11, 2021
Manitoba will see very warm temperatures on Sunday with highs in the low 30s through most of the province.

Overnight lows will warm to around the 20 °C mark for the weekend, but humidity levels should stay fairly comfortable through the weekend.

Long Range Outlook

Forecasts show next week starting with unsettled conditions as a couple disturbances move through the region. Unfortunately no widespread rain can be guaranteed for the Red River Valley; these systems will more likely produce scattered showers and thunderstorms rather than broader areas of rain.

Forecasts show temperatures breaking back to seasonal values mid-week, then climbing back to the low 30s for next weekend.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 13 °C.