More Warm Weather With a Chance of Showers

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Temperatures will stay warm in Winnipeg through the first half of the week and the city may even see a bit of rain.

Today will start off with mixed to cloudy skies as a band of showers makes its way across southern Manitoba. This band developed overnight and may bring some rain to Winnipeg; as of writing, the band hasn’t formed yet so its exact placement is unknown to me!). It will be a narrow band situated just north of an upper-level front draped across the province. There may even be a chance of a thunderstorm. Any rain should push off to the east by midday, leaving the city with partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will climb to a high near 28 °C with northeasterly winds picking up into the 30–40 km/h range.

These winds will tap into some of the forest fire smoke from east of Lake Winnipeg, reducing air quality on Monday night into Tuesday. It shouldn’t be anywhere near as a bad as the last smoke event, but will be enough to be noticeable.

Temperatures will dip to a low near 14 °C tonight with clear skies and easing winds.

An approaching low pressure system will push temperatures higher on Tuesday with the high in Winnipeg in the low 30s. Skies should stay mainly clear for much of the day but some cloud will build into the region by late afternoon. The winds will stay light through the morning, then pick up out of the south into the 20–30 km/h range by the end of the afternoon.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Tuesday July 27, 2021
Hot weather will return to southern Manitoba on Tuesday.

Heading into the night, nocturnal thunderstorms will likely develop over western Manitoba and push eastwards. Winnipeg will see a chance for some of that activity overnight into early Wednesday morning. Temperatures will head to a low near 19 °C with southeasterly winds near 30 km/h.

Skies will gradually clear out on Wednesday with northwest winds near 30 gusting 50 km/h and a high near 29 °C. The winds will ease on Wednesday night with a low near 17 °C.

Long Range Outlook

Warm weather will continue for the rest of the week with another chance for some showers or thunderstorms on Friday. After that, temperatures will return to seasonal values with variable cloudiness through the weekend into next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 13 °C.

Comfortable Summer Weekend Ahead

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A passing cold front later today will flush out the humid conditions in Winnipeg and leave behind a rather pleasant summer weekend.

It will be another humid start to the day in Winnipeg with dew points close to the 20 °C mark. That humidity will linger through much of the day with temperatures climbing into the upper 20s. Starting with the passage of a trough early in the morning, Winnipeg will see mixed to cloudy skies with a chance of showers or thunderstorms. Much of the activity will likely miss the city, but we can hope that a bit more rain can fall within its limits.

Showers and thunderstorms will develop along a cold front pushing through the region in the afternoon. The hot and humid weather ahead of the front will give any storms plenty of energy to work with. Severe thunderstorms will be possible with primary threats of damaging hail and wind gusts. With the humid conditions, these thunderstorms will also be capable of producing torrential downpours, but they should be moving quickly enough that accumulations would likely be in the 25–50 mm range.

RDPS 2m Dew Point Forecast valid at 21Z Friday July 23, 2021
A muggy air mass will stay in place much of the day over southern Manitoba before a cold front passes and ushers in much drier conditions.

The biggest uncertainty is how the thunderstorm activity that developed overnight evolves through the morning hours as it moves towards the Red River Valley. However it goes, expect warm, humid, and mixed to cloudy skies until the cold front passes later this afternoon.

In the wake of the cold front, the biggest difference will be drier air moving in. Skies will clear out tonight with dew points dropping into the low teens by morning. Winnipeg should see a low near 17 °C.

Winnipeg will see standard summer fare this weekend. Highs will sit in the upper 20s both days with lows in the mid-teens. Winds will pick up out of the northwest on Saturday into the 30–40 km/h range. They’ll ease for the night, then redevelop near 30 km/h on Sunday.

Skies should stay mainly sunny through the weekend.

Long Range Outlook

The next week is looking like a bit of a copy and paste job. Most days will see highs in the upper 20s and lows in the mid- to upper-teens. The forecast has little rain in it, but some unsettled weather is possible; multiple disturbances will move through the province next week..

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 13 °C.

Warm and Unsettled; Hazardous Air Quality Event Ahead

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Winnipeg will continue to see hot summer conditions, but with a couple chances for some rain over the coming days. Smoke will be a significant issue as well with extremely poor air quality later today into Tuesday.

Winnipeg will see light northerly winds today in the wake of a cold front that slumped through the region overnight. Temperatures won’t cool too much today, though, with a high in the upper 20s to 30 °C. More notable will be the switch to smokier conditions in the wake of the front. The front itself has brought some smoke into the region, and the northerly winds will continue to advect smoke southwards. In the evening, a thick plume of smoke will begin moving into the region as winds shift to the northeast.

Smoke models have been very consistent in the production of this smoke plume. Forecasts show it moving in today with the worst conditions spreading from east to west through the night. While the worst will have passed for Tuesday, conditions will stay very poor through the day. People with sensitivities to air quality will want to minimize outdoor activities while most others should reduce or eliminate outdoor activities if possible.

Wildfire Surface PM2.5 Contribution Forecast valid 12Z Tuesday July 20, 2021
Much of southern Manitoba will see extremely poor air quality on Tuesday as thick plumes of wildfire smoke advect westwards across the province.

On Tuesday, a disturbance moving through the region will bring cloudier conditions to the region (not that you’d tell the difference much with all the smoke) and a chance of showers. If the region is able to get rain, that could work to help clean out the air a bit. The smoke and cloud will keep things cooler with a high in the mid- to upper 20s. A much warmer air mass is moving into the region and the overnight low reflects it. Temperatures will only drop into the low 20s in Winnipeg on Tuesday night.

There’s a small chance of showers or thunderstorms late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. After that clears, the region should see partly cloudy skies for the rest of Wednesday. Temperatures will climb back to around 30 °C. Winds will be out of the southeast for much of the day and relatively light at 15–25 km/h. These southeasterly winds will likely bring a gradual improvement to air quality through the day.

Long Range Outlook

The rest of the week looks warm with highs in the low 30s and lows in the upper teens or low 20s. Latest forecasts show the most intense part of the heat wave stalling a bit west of Winnipeg. This would put the city in a position to potentially see variable cloudiness and a greater likelihood of showers or thunderstorms. Given the intense drought over the region, any opportunities for rain will be welcome news.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 13 °C.

The Heat Builds In

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Winnipeg will see hot days ahead as an an upper ridge intensifies over the Prairies.

Winnipeg will see daytime highs climb to the mid-30s over the coming days as warmer air settles over the region. This warmth will be sustained by an amplifying upper ridge over the Prairies that will also keep conditions mainly sunny through the Red River Valley. Overnight lows will sit near 20 °C over the next couple days, then dip into the mid-teens on Sunday night as a cold front slumps into the region.

RDPS 500mb Height and Wind Speed Forecast valid 18Z Sunday July 18, 2021
An upper ridge will continue to amplify of the Prairies this weekend, extending northwards from the subtropical high over the western United States.

Winds will be breezy out of the south the next few days, picking up into the 20–30 km/h range during the day and easing at night. While conditions will be generally dry, an isolated pop-up shower or two can’t be ruled out over the coming days. The most organized chance for rain will be Sunday night when a cold front moves into the region.

Hazy conditions will persist over the coming days, with occasional periods of local smoke possible (the former being when smoke is mainly aloft with low concentrations near the ground, while the latter is when visibilities become reduced and the odour is noticeable).

The hot temperatures, relatively low dew points, and breezy winds will exacerbate the already poor fire conditions. Note that both the City of Winnipeg and the Province of Manitoba have fire bans in effect.

Long Range Outlook

Temperatures will cool slightly for Monday behind the cold front, then temperatures will rebound back towards the 30s on Tuesday. Models are starting to have a little more disagreement on how next week will progress. While all models had a significant heat wave for Winnipeg, newer model runs have become a bit more aggressive with the cooler air, keeping Winnipeg’s temperatures in the upper 20s or low 30s through much of next week. The hot weather will still be around, though, with highs climbing back into the mid- to upper-30s nearby to the west.

It’s hard to say at this point whether the new trend in the model will be right or not. If Winnipeg stays on the cooler side of this feature, then it will also mean the city will be more likely to see chances for rain or thunderstorms throughout the week. It’s impossible to discern at this point, though, so for now we’ll keep an eye on how this system evolves as the cold front slumps through the Prairies.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 13 °C.