Warm And Occasionally Unsettled Weather Continues

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Warm and mostly dry weather will continue in Winnipeg through the weekend.

Another in a series of weak disturbances will move through southern Manitoba today. It will bring mixed skies to the region with another chance of scattered showers this afternoon. Temperatures will be mild with a high near 23 °C and winds will be generally light. With the dry conditions, any showers will be capable of producing locally gusty winds up into the 50–70 km/h range. The cloud cover will break up tonight with temperatures heading to a low near 9 °C.

On Saturday, the region will see light winds with partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will head to a high near 23 °C again. By the evening, an organized low crossing the northern Prairies will push a warm front eastwards through the region. As it passes, it will bring a chance of showers to the region. The rest of the night should see partly cloudy skies and a low near 12 °C. Southerly winds will strengthen to around 20 km/h overnight.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Sunday May 16, 2021
Daytime highs of 25–30 °C will develop over southern Manitoba on Sunday.

Sunday will bring the heat to southern Manitoba. Well into the warm sector of the northern Manitoba low, breezy southwest winds of 30–40 km/h will send highs into the upper 20s. A trough will slump southwards into the region through the afternoon. It will bring a chance of showers with it, and behind it winds should diminish a bit and turn westerly. The region will see a few clouds Sunday night with diminishing winds and a low near 12 °C.

Long Range Outlook

Another organized low will start moving out of central Alberta on Monday, bringing a renewed push of warmer air into southern Manitoba. Temperatures will be very warm through the first half of the week.

By mid-week, the persistent southerly flow will bring a pool of Gulf of Mexico humidity into the northern Plains of the United States, potentially into southern Manitoba as well. As this moisture approaches, forecasts show a deep upper trough moving into western North America. These two features will combine to bring more humid and unsettled conditions to southern Manitoba in the second half of the week.

GDPS 2m Dew Point Forecast valid 18Z Thursday May 20, 2021
Forecasts show a substantial increase of humidity in the latter half of next week with dew points climbing into the upper teens.

The potential exists for significant rainfall, which would be welcome relief for the drought conditions. This unsettled period could also bring the first well-organized thunderstorm risk to the region, but if the forcing is too strong, it will favour broad areas of showers instead.

So after another warm and mostly dry 5 days, the region should see a shift into a more humid and unsettled pattern.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 20 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 5 °C.

Mild Spring Weather Arrives

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Winnipeg will enjoy pleasant spring weather with seasonably mild temperatures and a chance of showers.

Winnipeg will see warmer weather move in today as a weak area of low pressure builds east across the Prairies. Temperatures will climb to a high near 22 °C this afternoon with southerly winds into the 20–30 km/h range. Skies should stay mostly sunny through the day. It will continue to be dry; with warm weather and dew points between -5 and -10 °C, the relative humidity will drop into the 10–20% range for the afternoon. A few clouds will linger overnight as a continued southerly flow brings warmer air with a bit more moisture into the region. Winnipeg should see a low near 9 °C. There’s also a slight chance that a few showers may drift across the region overnight.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Thursday May 13, 2021
Summer-like warmth will spread across southern Manitoba on Thursday.

Thursday will be a beautiful day across many parts of the Red River Valley. Winnipeg will see a high near 24 °C with partly cloudy skies as the broad area of low pressure continues to build into the province. Dew points will be higher on Thursday, climbing above 0°C and into the low to mid single digits. While this isn’t particularly remarkable on its own, it will be a 10–15 °C increase from Wednesday. One thing that the higher dew points will allow for, though, is the likely development of some scattered showers in afternoon. Although there isn’t too much instability, an isolated non-severe thunderstorm may be possible as well.

Things will taper off in the evening with temperatures in Winnipeg heading to a low near 9 °C under partly cloudy skies.

RDPS 48-hour Accumulated QPF Forecast valid 00Z Saturday May 15, 2021
Many places across southern Manitoba will see a chance of scattered afternoon showers on Thursday and Friday.

Friday will bring much of the same to Winnipeg again with a high near 22 °C and partly cloudy skies. Some scattered showers will once again be possible in the afternoon with the risk of an isolated non-severe thunderstorm. Temperatures will dip to a low near 7 °C on Friday night with a few lingering clouds.

Long Range Outlook

Spring arrives, as they say, slowly and suddenly. While a prolonged cool pattern only came to an end yesterday, now it looks like Winnipeg will be seeing nothing but warmth for the next week. Highs of 20–25 °C are forecast well into next week with overnight lows in the upper single digits or low teens. The warmer overnight lows, in particular, should help the growing season get started across the region.

Several disturbances will move through the region through the next week, bringing a couple chances of rain with them.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 19 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 5 °C.

A Return To Seasonal Temperatures

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The seasonably cool temperatures entrenched over the Winnipeg area the past week are finally on the way out! Warmer weather will return to the region this week under sunny skies.

An upper high moving across the region will dominate the weather pattern over the coming days and bring Winnipeg plenty of sunshine. As it slides eastwards, the upper trough that had been suppling the region with cooler temperatures will shift off as well. This will allow milder Pacific air to push into the eastern Prairies.

In Winnipeg, this will mean nothing but sun and warming temperatures. The city will see ample sun over the next 3 days with daytime highs climbing from a seasonably cool 13 °C today up to 21 °C by Wednesday. Lows will also climb from around the freezing mark tonight to the upper single digits by Wednesday night.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Wednesday May 12, 2021
Seasonably warm temperatures will finally return to southern Manitoba on Wednesday.

Winds will gradually shift over the coming days. Today will bring northeast winds around 20 km/h today ahead of last Arctic ridge moving through the province. On Tuesday, winds will be light out of the south as the high slumps off to the southeast. On Wednesday, winds will pick up out of the south to around 30 gusting 50 km/h as warmer temperatures arrive.

Long Range Outlook

The rest of the work week will bring highs in the low 20s and lows of 5–10 °C. Fire conditions will deteriorate through the week as the increasing warmth combines with wind and low daytime relative humidities. A few daytime showers might be possible later in the week, but they wouldn’t amount to anything that would make any noticeable impact on the worsening drought over the region.

Canadian Drought Monitor Conditions as of April 30, 2021
Canadian Drought Monitor Conditions as of April 30, 2021

While conditions at specific locations may be a bit better than depicted here, the impacts of the drought are showing. The City of Morden has implemented water use restrictions due to severe drought conditions, the City of Winnipeg had to deal with numerous grass fires over the weekend, and Sandilands Provincial Forest now has one of the first out of control forest fires of the season. With the dry conditions continuing through the week, Municipal Burning Restrictions and Provincial Burning Restrictions may expand.

Fortunately, a pattern change this weekend will bring several days of cloudier, more unsettled conditions. Southern Manitoba will likely see accumulating rainfall from Saturday into the middle of next week. At least 5 mm of rain is likely for most areas over that period, but more than 10 mm may be possible. The exact nature and distribution of the rainfall will become more clear later in the week as the disturbances develop.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 19 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 5 °C.

Cool and Sunny Weather Continues

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Winnipeg will see plenty of sunshine and seasonably cool temperatures through the next few days.

There’s little to tell in today’s forecast as the ridge impacting the region does little but slowly drift southeast over the coming days. Winnipeg will see highs of around 12 °C through the next few days with lows hovering around the freezing mark. The city will see plenty of sunshine right through the weekend.

RDPS MSLP and 10 m Wind Forecast valid 21Z Sunday May 9, 2021
Winds will be relatively light in Winnipeg on Friday and Saturday, but will increase to around 30 km/h for Sunday afternoon.

Winds will be light today, then gradually pick up through the weekend. Out of the north the whole time, winds will pick up to around 20 km/h on Saturday and to around 30 km/h on Sunday. They will ease to light each night.

Long Range Outlook

The area of high pressure over the region will move off next week and allow temperatures to return to seasonal values. Winds will shift to the west-southwest by Tuesday with highs climbing towards 20 °C. Much of next week looks quite pleasant with plenty of sun, but there’s a chance of some unsettled conditions developing at the week’s end.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 18 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 3 °C.