Bitter Cold Continues

Brad Leave a comment

There’s no relief in sight for Winnipeg as bitter cold stays entrenched over the region this week.

Dangerously cold conditions will stay this week for the Prairies, including Winnipeg. Temperatures will be dangerous today with a high near -26 combining with westerly winds increasing to around 30 km/h. This will produce wind chill values of -45 to -50 this morning and -40 to -45 this afternoon. Temperatures will drop back towards -30 °C tonight.

Tuesday and Wednesday will offer a semblance of “relief” from the cold; the coldest core of temperatures will shift towards the Rockies and some modified Arctic air will move into Manitoba. It’s not going to be that much of a change though; tonight’s low rising to -29 °C is the start of it and Tuesday and Wednesday will both bring high around -23 °C.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 00Z Tuesday February 9, 2021
Bitterly cold temperatures are entrenched over the entire Prairies. The low over northern Manitoba will bring some cloud and marginally improved temperatures to southern Manitoba on Tuesday and Wednesday, then the colder temperatures return.

Winds on Tuesday will again hover in the 20–30 km/h range, producing wind chills near -40 early Tuesday morning that climb only to around -35 in the afternoon. Wind chills dip back into the -35 to -40 range on Wednesday night before beginning to ease on Wednesday as the winds let up. The return of “pure” Arctic air will begin on Wednesday night, with lows dropping back below -30 °C.

Long Range Outlook

Bitterly cold temperatures persist through Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. By Sunday, a shift in the upper air pattern will begin to break down the entrenched lobe of the polar vortex over the region. It will start moving off to the east and milder temperatures will begin to move in. Below seasonal temperatures will continue through the first half of next week, but highs should climb into the -15 to -10 °C range with lows eventually rising above -20 °C.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -9 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -20 °C.

Bitterly Cold Arctic Air On The Way

Brad Leave a comment

Temperatures will plummet in Winnipeg this weekend as bitterly cold Arctic air pushes across the Prairies.

Temperatures are all downhill from here as some of the coldest air on the continent begins moving into Manitoba. Extreme cold will develop over southern Manitoba in the coming days as daytime highs fall from -16 °C today to -26 °C by Sunday. Overnight lows will likewise plummet, dipping into the mid-minus 30s.

Extreme cold warnings from ECCC are a sure bet; widespread wind chills of -40 to -50 will develop over the southern Prairies this weekend. In the far northern Prairies, wind chill values may even drop into the -55 to -60 range by Sunday morning. This will be a brutally cold stretch of weather, bringing the coldest temperatures of the season so far to many parts of the Prairies.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 15Z Sunday February 7, 2021
Bitterly cold Arctic air will descend through the Prairies this weekend.

As far as the other elements of the weather go, things will trend sunnier and calmer. Winnipeg will see mixed skies today with a good chance of a few flurries. Skies will gradually clear out tonight and tomorrow, leaving mainly sunny skies for Sunday. Northwest winds will persist in Winnipeg, easing from 30–40 km/h today into the 20–30 km/h range tomorrow. Winds will be light out of the west on Sunday.

Long Range Outlook

These brutally cold temperatures are the result of the Polar Vortex; a lobe has decoupled from the main vortex over the poles and will settle over Manitoba and parts of Northwestern Manitoba. Unfortunately, it means that improvement will be slow to come. The coldest temperatures will be this weekend into early next week, followed by a slight moderation for the rest of the week.

Through next week, temperatures will likely stay 5 to 10 °C below seasonal values with some cloudier conditions possible. A return to near-seasonal conditions will be possible the week after next.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -10 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -21 °C.

Coldest Weather of the Winter On The Way

Brad Leave a comment

After one more mild day, a cold front moving through Wednesday night will usher in a prolonged outbreak of bitterly cold air. Winnipeg will likely see the coldest temperatures of the season over the coming week.

Temperatures will climb back towards the freezing point today as a brisk southerly wind pushes mild air into the region. Skies should stay mostly cloudy as temperatures climb to a high near -2 °C. Southerly winds near 30 gusting 50 km/h this morning will ease to light this afternoon as a low pressure centre moves across southern Manitoba.

As the low passes, colder air will begin to move into the region. Snow will come with it, beginning in Winnipeg sometime early this evening. Shortly after the snow, moderate northwest winds of 30–40 km/h will push into the region. Snow and local blowing snow will persist through the night as temperatures drop to a low near -14 °C. Winnipeg and the Red River Valley will likely see 5–10 cm of snow with higher amounts of 10–15 cm across the Interlake.

NAM 24hr. Accumulated Snowfall Forecast (at 10:1 SLR) valid 18Z Thursday February 4, 2021
Much of southern Manitoba will see accumulating snow on Wednesday night.

Moderate northwest winds near 40 gusting 60 km/h will mark Thursday along with mostly cloudy skies. Flurries may linger through the morning before tapering off in the afternoon. Temperatures will be near-seasonal with a high around -13 °C. The winds will ease into the 20–30 km/h range on Thursday night with a low near -21 °C. Skies will stay mostly cloudy on Thursday night.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Saturday February 6, 2021
A bitterly cold Arctic air mass will spread into the Prairies late this week and through the weekend.

The winds will pick back up into the 30–40 km/h range on Friday with highs near -17 °C. The cloud cover should finally start breaking up and give mixed skies to the region. Winnipeg will see partly cloudy skies on Friday night with a low near -29 °C and northwest winds near 20 km/h.

Long Range Outlook

A potent Arctic high will build into the Prairies this weekend and stall out over the region next week. This will bring a period of brutally cold temperatures with daytime highs in the mid-minus twenties and overnight lows into the mid-minus thirties. Wind chill values into the mid-minus 40s are likely. The coldest weather looks to be Saturday through Monday, but temperatures will continue to be below seasonal through the rest of the week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -10 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -21 °C.

Mild Start to the Week, But The Deep Freeze Looms

Brad Leave a comment

Mild, cloudy weather will stay over Winnipeg through the first half of the work week. The warmth will come to an abrupt end mid-week as bitter cold returns to the region for an extended period.

An upper ridge will support a southerly flow over the next few days, pushing mild temperatures across the province. The downside to the warmth will be fairly persistent cloud cover over much of the coming days. A few sunny breaks are possible in Winnipeg today, but skies should generally stay on the cloudier side. Temperatures will climb to a high near -6 °C today with light southeast winds picking up into the 15–25 km/h range by evening. The wind will increase into the 30–40 km/h range overnight with a low near -9 °C.

Tuesday will bring cloudy skies to the region as temperatures climb to a high near -2 °C. It will be windy with southerlies of 40–50 km/h, making it a relatively unpleasant day out in the Red River Valley. The winds will ease to 20 km/h by Wednesday morning with temperatures dipping to a low near -4 °C.

RDPS 12hr. Snowfall Accumulation (at 10:1 SLR) valid 06Z Thursday February 4, 2021
Much of southern Manitoba will see some snow on Wednesday, but ht heaviest amounts will occur north of the Trans-Canada Highway.

On Tuesday night, a low pressure system will move from eastern Saskatchewan into northern Manitoba. The warm-sector trough of this system will move through the Red River Valley on Wednesday morning, followed by some snow in the afternoon. Closely behind the snow will be an Arctic cold front surging across the Prairies. After 2–5 cm of snow, northwest winds will strengthen up to 40 gusting 60 km/h on Wednesday night. Temperatures will begin to plummet to a low near -17 °C.

Long Range Outlook

Bitterly cold air will build into the Prairie through the rest of the work week with daytime highs falling below -20 °C by Saturday. This bitterly cold air will likely stick around through next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -11 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -21 °C.