Arctic Grip Slowly Eases

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Temperatures will warm in Winnipeg over the coming days as upper-level ridging builds across the Prairies.

There’s still one more day of bitter cold ahead for the city today. The Arctic ridge responsible for the frigid temperatures will slowly shift across the province through the day. This will keep daytime highs again near the -23 °C mark with light winds and sunny skies. Temperatures will quickly dip to around -27 °C this evening, but then moderate slightly as some cloud cover arrives with a push of milder air.

Thursday will bring mixed skies to the city as some morning cloud breaks up for the afternoon. The city will get its reprieve from the cold as temperatures climb to a seasonal high near -12 °C. Winds will be light out of the southeast at 10–20 km/h. This will mark the beginning of a shift into a warmer pattern as the polar vortex consolidates over the high Arctic and Pacific begins to wash over the region. Temperatures will dip to a low near -18 °C on Thursday night with partly cloudy skies.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Friday January 29, 2021
Seasonably mild temperatures will replace the deep freeze over southern Manitoba by Friday.

A warmer air mass will continue to push into the province for Friday, bringing increasing cloudiness with it. Temperatures will climb back to seasonably warm values with a high near -8 °C and winds will pick up out of the southeast again into the 20–30 km/h range. A few flurries are possible, but any snow will likely hold off until overnight. Temperatures will dip to a low near -10°C.

Long Range Outlook

Southern Manitoba will see more cloud and light snow this weekend as an upper trough migrates across the region. Temperatures will stay warm with highs in the mid-minus single digits and early indications suggest snow accumulations of 2–5 cm around the Winnipeg area.

The mild temperatures will stick around into next week, although a return to seasonal temperatures looks possible mid-week with the passage of another low pressure system.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -12 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -23 °C.

Bitter Cold Arrives

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Extremely cold temperatures will stay entrenched over southern Manitoba through the first half of the week.

Winnipeg will see mainly cloudy skies today, supported by a weak inverted trough collapsing southwards into the United States. This cloud cover will bring a few flurries to the region, but most of it will stay south of Winnipeg. In the city, there will a chance for a bit of light snow, but mainly in the morning hours.

The cloud cover won’t help temperatures much. The main story over the coming days will be the bitter cold over the region. Temperatures won’t climb above -20 °C over the next two days, and only nudge above the mark on Wednesday. Overnight lows will be bitterly cold and dip below -30 °C both tonight and Tuesday night. Note that these overnight lows are difficult to forecast; there is a chance that temperatures could dip even colder than this, or stay a bit warmer. The difference in outcomes is subtle, but its worth noting that temperatures of -35 to -40 °C have occurred over western Manitoba into central and northern Saskatchewan. This is the air mass that will move into the Red River Valley today.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 15Z Tuesday January 26, 2021
Bitterly cold temperatures will spread into southern Manitoba over the coming days.

Extreme cold warnings will be likely as it does not take much wind to drive wind chills below -40 with these bitterly cold overnight lows.

Skies will clear out Monday night and stay mainly sunny right through Wednesday. Some cloud will begin working into the region late Wednesday as warmer air starts to move towards the province.

Long Range Outlook

The upper flow supporting the bitterly cold temperatures will collapse in the second half of the week. This will allow milder air to surge back across the Prairies and send temperatures back to seasonal or seasonably mild for the latter half of the week. Comparatively pleasant winter weather will persist through the weekend with a chance for a few centimetres of snow on Saturday.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -12 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -23 °C.

Saturday Snow Ushers In Bitter Cold

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Temperatures will rebound in Winnipeg on Saturday as a low brings light snow to the region. Things will take a turn for Sunday, though, as bitterly cold Arctic air plunges into the region as the low exits the area.

It will be a pleasant winter day in Winnipeg today with a bit of morning snow followed by mixed skies. Temperatures will sit near seasonal values with a high near -11 °C and light winds as a trough weakens over the region.

A compact low pressure system will head slide through northern Alberta today and across central Saskatchewan tonight. As it approaches Manitoba tonight, it will spread more cloud cover into the region and strengthen southerly winds into the 20–30 km/h range. Temperatures will dip to a low around -15 °C.

The low will cross Manitoba on Saturday, bringing a bit of snow to the region and milder temperatures. Winnipeg will see a high around -7 °C as the southerly winds ease into the 15–25 km/h midday and shift towards the northwest through the afternoon. This will also be the best chance for snow; once the warm-sector trough passes, snow is more likely as colder air starts pushing into the region. There’s a bit of disagreement amongst forecast models on how much snow will fall, but 2–4 cm is most likely with a chance of it ending up a bit outside of that range on either end depending on the exact track of the system.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 15Z Sunday January 24, 2021
Bitterly cold Arctic air will pour into the southern Prairies behind a low pressure system. This cold air will reach southern Manitoba by Sunday morning.

On Saturday evening, after this system passes, the wind will strengthen out of the northwest into the 30–40 km/h range. These northwesterly winds will tap into a rather cold Arctic air mass and begin dragging it into southern Manitoba. Temperatures will plummet to a low near -25 °C with clearing skies and gradually easing winds.

An Arctic ridge moving into the region on Sunday will keep things cold and sunny with winds easing to light. Temperatures in Winnipeg will recover only slightly to a high near -21 °C, then head awfully close to (if not below) -30 on Sunday night.

Long Range Outlook

The first half of next week will bring cloudier conditions as the coldest air gradually leaves the region. By mid-week, forecasts show temperatures returning to seasonably mild conditions that persist through next weekend. No major snowfalls are in the forecast.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -13 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -23 °C.

Warm And Windy Wednesday, Then Cold Again

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A potent low pressure system diving through the eastern Prairies will bring warm and windy weather to Winnipeg today. In its wake, cooler weather will slump back into the region from the north.

Temperatures will rocket back above freezing in Winnipeg today as strong westerly winds usher in a Pacific air mass. Temperatures will climb to a high near +1 °C as southerly winds of 40 gusting 60 km/h shift westerly midday and strengthen to 50 gusting 70 km/h. Stronger winds will move through to the southwest of Winnipeg where gusts in excess of 90 km/h will be possible. A rogue gust closer to 80 km/h can’t be ruled out for Winnipeg today.

Most of the precipitation associated with this system will stay north of the Red River Valley, tracking with the low centre and to its north. Areas along the Trans-Canada Highway will still likely see a bit of light snow or even a rain shower as this system moves through. The best chance for precipitation will be in the morning as the warm front pushes across the region. While skies will be mostly cloudy through the day, a sunny break or two is possible in the afternoon.

RDPS 10m Wind Forecast valid 18Z Wednesday January 20, 2021
Strong westerly winds will move through southern Manitoba today.

The winds will ease to 30 gusting 50 km/h this evening, then shift to the northwest overnight as a cold front slumps through. This will bring more cloud to the region and a chance for some light snow. Temperatures will plummet to a low near -16 °C by Thursday morning.

The cold weather will be back in force on Thursday as a ridge moves through the province. Temperatures will barely recover to a high near -15 °C as northerly winds near 30 km/h continue to funnel Arctic air into the region. Cloud will likely stick around through the morning hours, but some sunny breaks should develop in the afternoon. The clouds will clear out in the evening. Temperatures will drop to a low near -25 °C on Thursday night with light winds. A trough will begin rotating into southern Manitoba overnight, likely bringing cloud back into the region by Friday morning.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Thursday January 21, 2021
Much colder air will surge back into southern Manitoba for Thursday.

Winnipeg will see mixed skies again on Friday as that weak trough rotates across the region. Temperatures will return to seasonal values with a high near -13 °C and there’s a slight chance for some scattered flurries. Skies will stay mainly cloudy on Friday night with a low near -19 °C.

Long Range Outlook

Some more cloud and snow is likely on the way for Winnipeg on Saturday with near-seasonal temperatures. Following that, temperatures will shift to seasonably cool with partly cloudy skies. Temperatures may moderate in the second half of next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -13 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -23 °C.