Bitterly Cold Arctic Air On The Way

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Temperatures will plummet in Winnipeg this weekend as bitterly cold Arctic air pushes across the Prairies.

Temperatures are all downhill from here as some of the coldest air on the continent begins moving into Manitoba. Extreme cold will develop over southern Manitoba in the coming days as daytime highs fall from -16 °C today to -26 °C by Sunday. Overnight lows will likewise plummet, dipping into the mid-minus 30s.

Extreme cold warnings from ECCC are a sure bet; widespread wind chills of -40 to -50 will develop over the southern Prairies this weekend. In the far northern Prairies, wind chill values may even drop into the -55 to -60 range by Sunday morning. This will be a brutally cold stretch of weather, bringing the coldest temperatures of the season so far to many parts of the Prairies.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 15Z Sunday February 7, 2021
Bitterly cold Arctic air will descend through the Prairies this weekend.

As far as the other elements of the weather go, things will trend sunnier and calmer. Winnipeg will see mixed skies today with a good chance of a few flurries. Skies will gradually clear out tonight and tomorrow, leaving mainly sunny skies for Sunday. Northwest winds will persist in Winnipeg, easing from 30–40 km/h today into the 20–30 km/h range tomorrow. Winds will be light out of the west on Sunday.

Long Range Outlook

These brutally cold temperatures are the result of the Polar Vortex; a lobe has decoupled from the main vortex over the poles and will settle over Manitoba and parts of Northwestern Manitoba. Unfortunately, it means that improvement will be slow to come. The coldest temperatures will be this weekend into early next week, followed by a slight moderation for the rest of the week.

Through next week, temperatures will likely stay 5 to 10 °C below seasonal values with some cloudier conditions possible. A return to near-seasonal conditions will be possible the week after next.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -10 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -21 °C.

Coldest Weather of the Winter On The Way

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After one more mild day, a cold front moving through Wednesday night will usher in a prolonged outbreak of bitterly cold air. Winnipeg will likely see the coldest temperatures of the season over the coming week.

Temperatures will climb back towards the freezing point today as a brisk southerly wind pushes mild air into the region. Skies should stay mostly cloudy as temperatures climb to a high near -2 °C. Southerly winds near 30 gusting 50 km/h this morning will ease to light this afternoon as a low pressure centre moves across southern Manitoba.

As the low passes, colder air will begin to move into the region. Snow will come with it, beginning in Winnipeg sometime early this evening. Shortly after the snow, moderate northwest winds of 30–40 km/h will push into the region. Snow and local blowing snow will persist through the night as temperatures drop to a low near -14 °C. Winnipeg and the Red River Valley will likely see 5–10 cm of snow with higher amounts of 10–15 cm across the Interlake.

NAM 24hr. Accumulated Snowfall Forecast (at 10:1 SLR) valid 18Z Thursday February 4, 2021
Much of southern Manitoba will see accumulating snow on Wednesday night.

Moderate northwest winds near 40 gusting 60 km/h will mark Thursday along with mostly cloudy skies. Flurries may linger through the morning before tapering off in the afternoon. Temperatures will be near-seasonal with a high around -13 °C. The winds will ease into the 20–30 km/h range on Thursday night with a low near -21 °C. Skies will stay mostly cloudy on Thursday night.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Saturday February 6, 2021
A bitterly cold Arctic air mass will spread into the Prairies late this week and through the weekend.

The winds will pick back up into the 30–40 km/h range on Friday with highs near -17 °C. The cloud cover should finally start breaking up and give mixed skies to the region. Winnipeg will see partly cloudy skies on Friday night with a low near -29 °C and northwest winds near 20 km/h.

Long Range Outlook

A potent Arctic high will build into the Prairies this weekend and stall out over the region next week. This will bring a period of brutally cold temperatures with daytime highs in the mid-minus twenties and overnight lows into the mid-minus thirties. Wind chill values into the mid-minus 40s are likely. The coldest weather looks to be Saturday through Monday, but temperatures will continue to be below seasonal through the rest of the week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -10 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -21 °C.

Mild Start to the Week, But The Deep Freeze Looms

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Mild, cloudy weather will stay over Winnipeg through the first half of the work week. The warmth will come to an abrupt end mid-week as bitter cold returns to the region for an extended period.

An upper ridge will support a southerly flow over the next few days, pushing mild temperatures across the province. The downside to the warmth will be fairly persistent cloud cover over much of the coming days. A few sunny breaks are possible in Winnipeg today, but skies should generally stay on the cloudier side. Temperatures will climb to a high near -6 °C today with light southeast winds picking up into the 15–25 km/h range by evening. The wind will increase into the 30–40 km/h range overnight with a low near -9 °C.

Tuesday will bring cloudy skies to the region as temperatures climb to a high near -2 °C. It will be windy with southerlies of 40–50 km/h, making it a relatively unpleasant day out in the Red River Valley. The winds will ease to 20 km/h by Wednesday morning with temperatures dipping to a low near -4 °C.

RDPS 12hr. Snowfall Accumulation (at 10:1 SLR) valid 06Z Thursday February 4, 2021
Much of southern Manitoba will see some snow on Wednesday, but ht heaviest amounts will occur north of the Trans-Canada Highway.

On Tuesday night, a low pressure system will move from eastern Saskatchewan into northern Manitoba. The warm-sector trough of this system will move through the Red River Valley on Wednesday morning, followed by some snow in the afternoon. Closely behind the snow will be an Arctic cold front surging across the Prairies. After 2–5 cm of snow, northwest winds will strengthen up to 40 gusting 60 km/h on Wednesday night. Temperatures will begin to plummet to a low near -17 °C.

Long Range Outlook

Bitterly cold air will build into the Prairie through the rest of the work week with daytime highs falling below -20 °C by Saturday. This bitterly cold air will likely stick around through next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -11 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -21 °C.

Milder, Cloudy Weather Ahead

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An upper ridge building across the Prairies will bring warm weather and plenty of cloud to Winnipeg this weekend.

Warmer weather arrives in Winnipeg today, thawing the region from the snap of cold air that settled over the region earlier in the week. Clouds moved in overnight and are going to stick around for at least the next three days. As a result, though, temperatures will stay fairly steady. Highs through the weekend will hover near -6 °C.

The wind will pick up out of the southeast into the 20–30 km/h range today. The wind will keep up through most of the night, keeping temperatures mild with a low of just -8 or -9 °C. The winds will ease for Saturday and Sunday, allowing lows to dip into the minus teens.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Saturday January 30, 2021
Temperatures will warm back above seasonal averages across southern Manitoba this weekend.

A weak trough will move across southern Manitoba on Saturday, likely bringing some light snow with it. Nothing more than a dusting is likely with 1–2 cm possible by the end of the day. A few flurries are possible overnight into early Sunday morning, but any remaining snow will taper off by midday Sunday.

Long Range Outlook

The mainly cloudy and mild conditions will continue into mid-week. A low pressure system moving through on Wednesday will bring some more snow to the region and usher in another blast of Arctic air. Temperatures are forecast to plummet back to below-seasonal values for the end of next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -11 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -22 °C.