Tag: Above-Normal Temperatures

Warming up for the Weekend

Brad Leave a comment

A series of low pressure systems will bring mild weather to the Winnipeg area this weekend, but a cool-down with more snow will kick off next week.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 18Z Sunday March 9, 2025
Mild temperatures will spread across southern Manitoba on Sunday.

The work week will end with seasonably cool temperatures in the Winnipeg area while a warm front sits to the west, draped from northern Saskatchewan into southwestern Manitoba. Over the weekend, a pair of low pressure systems will move across the region and push warmer weather into the region.

For today, the region will see seasonably cool conditions with a high near -5 °C this afternoon. A mixed skies will give way to midday sun, then to increasing cloud in the afternoon as the warm front begins to push east into the region. Light winds will organize out of the south as the day goes on and pick up into the 15 to 25 km/h range overnight. Light snow will push through the region in the second half of the night as a weak low pushes the warm front east of the region. A light dusting of snow will taper off early Saturday morning as temperatures rise a couple degrees by morning.

Saturday will bring mild temperatures back to the region with highs climbing above freezing into the 0 to +5 °C range. Winds will ease and shift northwest for the afternoon. A few sunny breaks are possible as the day wears on.

A more organized low pressure system will eject east across the Prairies on Saturday night and track towards central Manitoba. It will draw more mild air across the southern Prairies as it spreads accumulating snow into central Manitoba. For Winnipeg and the Red River Valley, this will likely mean partly cloudy skies overnight with temperatures dipping below freezing. Winds will shift southerly again and pick up to around 20 km/h by Sunday morning.

Sunday should bring even warmer weather to the region with daytime highs potentially climbing into the 5 to 10 °C range. As the low passes by north of the region into Ontario on Sunday monring, winds will shift west-northwesterly. They will strengthen into the 30 to 40 km/h range for Sunday afternoon, making for mild but breezy conditions.

A cold front will slump south towards the region on Sunday evening and likely bring temperatures back below the freezing mark by Sunday morning. No notable snow is expected with this second system in the Red River Valley.

Long Range Outlook

Next week is shaping up to be an active one with two notable systems impacting the region. The first will be a potent low pressure system that quickly tracks through the southern Prairies on Monday. Early indications are that this system will draw a lot of warm air north with temperatures in the mid-teens on its southern flank dropping to temperatures in the -10 to 0 °C on its northern flank. This system could bring a narrow swath of significant snow to the region, but there’s a lot of uncertainty associated with it at this point.

The second system is currently forecast to develop late next week and could potentially result in the first Colorado Low of the season. If it develops as expected, it could bring as much as 10 to 20 cm of snow to southern Manitoba beginning late Friday through Saturday. It’s early, though, and there’s a lot of room for guidance to change over the next several days. For now, it’s a feature I’ll keep track of as we head into next week.

Otherwise, temperatures look to be near seasonal, but larger swings between highs and lows are possible next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -3 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -14 °C.

#Winnipeg #MBstorm #awm_snow #awm_above_normal_temperatures

Cold Front Slams Through Southern Manitoba, Brings Brief Cool Snap

Brad Leave a comment

A cold front will slam through southern Manitoba this morning and bring strong northerly winds that usher cooler temperatures into the region for a couple days.

RDPS 10m Wind Forecast valid 09Z Friday February 28, 2025
Southern Manitoba will wake up to strong northwest winds behind a cold front today.

A strong cold front has passed through Winnipeg early this morning and has brought strong northerly winds to the area. Widespread winds of 40 to 50 km/h will spread through the Red River Valley this morning, but stronger winds up to 60 gusting 90 km/h will be possible over and in the lee of Lake Manitoba. In particular, strong winds will persist through the morning hours in the corridor roughly between Portage la Prairie and the Elie region.

Blowing snow could be a concern with these winds, but the recent mild weather has glazed the top of the snow pack with ice. There may be flurries with the cold front, but any new snow will be limited. As a result, we don’t expect blowing snow to pose much of an issue this morning.

The winds will ease as the day progresses while temperatures call into the -15 to -10 °C range by the end of the afternoon. The clouds will clear out this evening as temperatures drop to around -20 °C overnight. The wind will ease to light overnight.

The forecast for the weekend is pretty simple. An Arctic high will slump into the province behind the cold front and gradually make its way southeast through the province. Saturday will bring sunny skies and light winds with highs in the -10 to -5 °C range. Temperatures will drop back down into the -15 to -10 °C range on Saturday night with light southerly winds as a warm front begins to push across the region.

On Sunday, much of southern Manitoba will see itself back into the air mass we were in before the cold front came through. Temperatures will rebound back to around 0 °C with southerly winds of 20 to 30 km/h. The warmer weather will likely bring mixed skies to the region.

Temperatures will dip back down into the -5 to 0 °C range on Sunday night with clear skies.

Long Range Outlook

Looking ahead to next week, temperatures will continue trending mild with daytime highs hovering from around or just below 0 °C to as high as the mid-single digits. No significant precipitation is in the forecast.

The mild weather of late has been a pleasant break from a lengthy stretch of cold weather this month; today’s system will bring a brief shot of cooler weather, but the warm-up will arrive before the end of the weekend!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -5 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -16 °C.

#Winnipeg #MBstorm #awm_windy #awm_benign

Warmer Weather Finally Arrives

Brad Leave a comment

Warmer temperatures have finally arrived in southern Manitoba and they’re going to stick around for a while.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 00Z Monday February 24, 2025
By Sunday evening, westerly winds will usher above-freezing temperatures into the Red River Valley.

The weakening lobe of the Polar Vortex that was entrenched over the region has finally weakened and quickly tracked out of the country. In its wake, two main pattern changes are underway: the Polar Vortex is re-strengthening further north over Canada’s High Arctic and upper ridging is building into western Canada.

These two changes will result in a major change in the weather over southern Manitoba. The most pronounced, obvious change will be a massive shift towards warmer weather.

Temperatures will climb into the -10 to -5 °C range this afternoon as breezy morning southerlies ease midday. The Winnipeg area will see mixed skies today as morning sun gives way to afternoon clouds as a warm front pushes towards the region. Temperatures will continue to climb tonight, reaching around -5 °C by Saturday morning.

This weekend’s weather will be shaped by a low pressure system that will develop in northern Alberta on Saturday. It will reach northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba border by Sunday evening with a warm front that drops south towards the Red River Valley.

This will bring more cloud to the area this weekend as daytime highs climb to around 0 °C. Winds won’t be too much of an issue this weekend either as they shift to the south and increase into the 15 to 25 km/h range. Overnight lows will warm into the -5 to 0 °C range by Sunday night.

There will be a slight chance of mixed precipitation on Sunday, though a feed of drier air from the south could eat away at anything that tries to fall over Winnipeg or areas south.

Long Range Outlook

The first half of next week will bring mild weather, then the region will shift towards seasonal values in the second half. Winnipeg will see variable cloudiness through the week; a train of weak disturbances will slide through every couple days, bringing a chance for a wintery mix of precipitation. At this point, no significant accumulations of snow or rain are expected in the Red River Valley next week, save for a chance of 4 to 8 cm of snow near the end of the week.

Looking further ahead, the long-range pattern looks to favour near-seasonal temperatures with no major storms on the horizon.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -6 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -17 °C.

#Winnipeg #MBwx #awm_above_normal_temperatures

Arctic Grip Weakens Over Southern Manitoba

Brad Leave a comment

The bitter cold that’s been entrenched in the region for over a week will finally give way with temperatures gradually warming to above-seasonal values.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Wednesday February 19, 2025
Although change is on the way, it will be cold across the southern Prairies on Wednesday morning.

Winnipeg’s weather is in for a change this week as a lobe of the Polar Vortex exits the region. It will weaken substantially over the next couple days, then rapidly shift east out of the country through the second half of the week.

As a result, there will be little change through the first half of the week, and substantial change in the second.

Over the next few days, as the weakened portion of the polar vortex dissipates, temperatures will gradually rise. By Thursday, daytime highs in Winnipeg will increase from near -20 °C to the mid-minus teens. Overnight lows will follow, rising from the -30 to -25 °C range into the minus teens.

A sprawling (and weakening) Arctic high will dominate the surface pattern, bringing sunshine and light west-northwest winds.

Long Range Outlook

While Thursday will mark the beginning of a pattern change, it will become more pronounced to end the week. The remnants of the Polar Vortex will rapidly shunt east, allowing an upper ridge to build into the Prairies from the Pacific. This will push much milder air across the region, sending daytime highs well above seasonal normals.

Daytime highs will climb to near-seasonal values on Friday, then warm closer to 0 °C on the weekend. For areas west of the Red River Valley, above-freezing temperatures are probable; we’ll have to wait to see how much mild air is able to scour into the Red River Valley to see how warm Winnipeg is able to get.

ECMWF 2m Temperature Forecast valid 00Z Sunday February 23, 2025
Much warmer weather will sweep across the Prairies this weekend, with daytime highs climbing to 0 °C or higher for most regions.

The above-seasonal temperatures will continue right through next week.

With this change, the region will shift closer to the storm track. No major systems are expected, but occasional bouts of light snow or even a wintery mix will be possible beginning this weekend and through much of next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -7 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -18 °C.

#wx_below_seasonal_temperatures #wx_above_seasonal_temperatures
#Winnipeg #MBwx