Tag: Above-Normal Temperatures

Hot Summer Weather Ahead

Brad

The heat will slowly build over Southern Manitoba in the coming days as the region heads towards a very hot weekend.

GDPS 500 mb Height Forecast (with Anomaly) valid 12Z Wednesday July 13, 2022
The forecast 500 mb heights with the climatological anomaly overlaid shows a strong upper ridge building across Manitoba on Tuesday.

This week will see an upper ridge building into and strengthening over the Prairies. As it does, conditions will stabilize as temperatures slowly climb.

Southern Manitoba will see a sunny start to the day give way to mixed skies. Temperatures will climb into the upper 20s across the region with a bit of a northerly breeze. Some lingering instability will result in a few scattered showers that will move through the Red River Valley in the afternoon with the risk of a thundershower. Skies will clear in the evening as temperatures head to a low in the mid-teens.

Wednesday will be a beautiful day across the region with sunshine, light winds out of the south and a high in the upper 20s. Temperatures will fall to a low in the upper teens on Wednesday night.

On Thursday, an upper disturbance lifting northeastwards across the Prairies will bring some cloud to the region along with increasing heat and humidity. Temperatures should climb to the 30 °C mark with breezy southerly winds developing. The humidity will gradually climb through the day, likely beginning to feel a bit muggy by the end of the day. Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region in the evening, and with the heat and humidity present there could be a risk of severe weather.

Long Range Outlook

The upper ridge will rebound and strengthen heading into the weekend, bringing increasing sun and even warmer weather. Daytime highs will climb into the low to mid-30s for the weekend under sunny skies. The humidity will likely be moderate to high which will help keep overnight lows mild near 20 °C.

The heat will continue into Monday before the upper ridge begins to break down, bringing slightly cooler weather and the chance of rain back to the region.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 13 °C.

Hot and Humid Summer Weather Comes to Southern Manitoba This Weekend

Brad

The heat will gradually amplify across southern Manitoba over the coming days as a hot and humid air mass builds into the province.

NAM 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Sunday June 19, 2022
Very hot and humid conditions will move into Southern Manitoba by Sunday.

After a couple cool, windy, and showery days across the region, summer weather is quickly rebounding back into southern Manitoba. Driven by an intensifying upper ridge, Winnipeg will see near-seasonal conditions today quickly heat up into the weekend.

It will be a beautiful day in Winnipeg today with temperatures climbing to the mid-20s under sunny skies. Winds won’t be much of an issue, swinging around to the east for the afternoon and picking up to around 20 km/h. Humidity will stay comfortable through the day with dew points around 10 °C. Temperatures will drop into the mid-teens tonight with some cloud moving into the area as a warm front approaches.

Saturday will bring a cloudy start to the day with some showers or thunderstorms possible through the morning into midday. Some sunny breaks will develop in the afternoon as temperatures head to a high in the upper 20s. Winds will strengthen out of the southeast to around 40 km/h with gradually increasing humidity. The dew point will climb into the mid- to upper-teens by the end of the day as the warm air continues to push into the region. Temperatures will stay very warm on Saturday night, only dropping into the low 20s with a gradually diminishing wind.

Sunday will bring dangerous heat to southern Manitoba as the mercury soars and very humid conditions develop. With partly cloudy skies, temperatures on Sunday will climb into the low to mid-30s across most of southern Manitoba. As this happens, dew points will rise rapidly as the day warms up, increasing from the mid-teens up into the 20–25 °C range through the morning. This heat and humidity will produce humidex values of 40–45, making for weather that can be dangerous to be exposed to for extended periods.

In preparation for the heat, ensure that if you have air conditioning its in working order. Limit your exposure to the heat on Sunday, drinking plenty of water and ensuring you can find breaks to cool off whether it be indoors, shade, or other cooling opportunities such as city-run splash pads (great for the kids!). If you know anyone at risk for heat-related illnesses such as elderly individuals, those without air conditioning or access to cool spaces, or some with other forms of chronic illnesses, organize a plan to check in with them or provide some way of cooling off. Be sure to check out more information about preparing for and managing heat-related illnesses.

Sunday night will also stay very warm with overnight lows only dipping into the low 20s. Some showers or thunderstorms are likely on Sunday night, but they will likely avoid the Red River Valley. They should develop well to the west-northwest and likely pose a more notable risk to the Parkland and Interlake regions.

Long Range Outlook

Hot weather will continue on Monday, but it won’t be quite as extreme as seen on Sunday; highs in the low 30s will combine with dew points easing into the upper teens. This will produce humidex values of 35–40, which when combined with the second night of very warm lows may still be an issue for some. Conditions will turn more unsettled for the rest of the week as cooler air brings more seasonal conditions back to the region.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 24 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 11 °C.

Wind and Blowing Snow Usher in Warmer Weather

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The Red River Valley will see another period of strong winds and blowing snow as a surge of mild Pacific air moves into the region.

Before the warmth arrives, though, the region will see another cold day today. Recovering from our cold morning, highs will climb to around -22 °C today under mainly sunny skies. The wind will stay light through the day as an Arctic ridge slumps over the region.

RDPS 10m Wind Forecast valid 12Z Wednesday January 26, 2022
Strong southerly winds will develop over the Red River Valley on Tuesday night.

Conditions will deteriorate tonight as southerly winds strengthen. With warmer air pushing in from the west, southerly outflow winds from the Arctic high will intensify. The wind will pick up to around 30 km/h by midnight, then to 50 gusting 70 km/h by Wednesday morning. These strong winds will combine with the loose snowpack to produce widespread blowing snow across much of the Red River Valley. White-out conditions will be possible in some areas. The worst of the blowing snow will likely be between 5 AM and 10 AM Wednesday morning, followed by improving conditions midday. Temperatures will rise close to the mid-minus teens by the time the sun comes up on Wednesday morning.

Temperatures will continue to rise as the wind and blowing snow eases. A warm front pushing through the region will shift winds towards the west through the day with a high climbing above freezing on Wednesday afternoon. The region should see a fair amount of cloud, but little by way of any notable snowfall.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Wednesday January 26, 2022
Very mild temperatures will move through the Red River Valley on Wednesday afternoon.

A cold front will then slump through the region on Wednesday evening, shifting winds back to the north with some flurries. A bit of blowing snow is again possible on Wednesday night, but with after a mild day and with slightly weaker winds near 40 gusting 60 km/h, it shouldn’t be as extensive or severe as seen earlier in the day. Temperatures will head back into the -15 to -20 °C range for Thursday morning.

The Winnipeg area will see seasonably cool temperatures for the rest of the work week. Highs will sit near -15 °C with lows dipping into the -20 to -25 °C range. The city should see partly cloudy skies, but more cloud cover will work into the region on Friday evening.

Long Range Outlook

Cloudier conditions will move into the Red River Valley this weekend with seasonably mild conditions. A near-seasonal temperature trend will continue into next week with skies likely staying on the cloudier side.

The general long-wave pattern shows a consistent shift of the polar vortex back to the high Arctic. This should mean that, for the next little while at least, the extremely cold Arctic outbreaks should come to an end!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -12 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -23 °C.

Sunshine and Mild Early-Winter Warmth Ahead

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Benign and pleasant early winter weather will settle in for Winnipeg this weekend.

The broad shift in the upper-level weather patterns we talked about earlier this week are underway. Gone is the Arctic vortex locked over Hudson Bay, allowing an upper ridge to build eastwards off the Pacific. This will be the dominant weather feature for the next couple days before it flattens out for the end of the weekend. Instead of being replaced by an upper trough and the associated cold air that comes with it, though, a generally zonal to west-southwest flow will develop aloft, continuing to spread mild temperatures across the southern Prairies.

As a result, Winnipeg’s forecast is quite pleasant for the days ahead. Right through the weekend into next week, the area will see daytime highs in the -5 to 0 °C range. A couple of these days may even see temperatures climb above freezing. Overnight lows will be similarly mild, generally falling in the -5 to -10 °C range.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Sunday December 12, 2021
Very mild December temperatures will spread across the southern Prairies this weekend. Most areas will see highs above freezing on Sunday.

Winds will be light for the region today, but for the weekend southerly winds around 20–30 km/h will develop. The windiest conditions should end up over the western Red River Valley where the escarpment can interact with the westerly component to the winds and produce slightly breezier conditions.

Along with these pleasant conditions will be plenty of sunshine; the Winnipeg area will see mainly sunny skies through the weekend. Some cloud cover will begin moving in next Monday and Tuesday.

Long Range Outlook

The next disturbance to impact the region will move through in the middle of next week. Forecasts show it could bring around 5 cm of snow to the region followed by breezy northwest winds and return to more seasonal temperatures. The overall weather pattern after that looks somewhat unsettled with a chance for more snow on Friday/Saturday and potentially again to start off the next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -9 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -19 °C.