Winnipeg will see a single day of cooler than normal temperatures before they begin to soar back to 30°C and above for the weekend.
Temperatures will be cool today in Winnipeg as a high pressure system moves through the province behind the cold front that passed through on Tuesday morning. The high will clear out any remaining cloud and bring very light northeasterly winds to the region. Winnipeg should see a high near 22°C, followed by a low near 10°C tonight.
Thursday will be a transition day for Winnipeg. Near-seasonal temperatures will return to the region as a low pressure system develops over the western Prairies. This developing low will bring moderate southerly winds back to the region, drawing a more summer-like air mass northwards out of the American Plains. Winnipeg will see mixed skies with a high near 27°C, but that southerly wind increasing to 40 gusting 60 km/h will put a bit of a damper on things. Much of southern Manitoba will see a chance of showers or thunderstorms Thursday evening into the overnight as the low pressure system approaches. Winds will ease a bit into the 20 to 30 km/h range as temperatures head to a low near 18°C.
By Friday, Winnipeg will be back into full-fledged summer mode. The city will see partly cloudy skies as temperatures climb to a high near 32°C. Winds will be lighter than on Thursday, out of the south at just 15 to 25 km/h. Temperatures will remain warm on Friday night with a low near 19°C.
Long Range Outlook
The warmth that moves in on Friday will mark the beginning of a prolonged period of above-seasonal temperatures.
NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid August 8 to 15, 2018
Broad upper-level ridging will develop over the coming week as the subtropical high moves into the central United States. This will sustain a broad dome of very warm air that will easily be spread into our region. Winnipeg will see highs in the low 30s this weekend, followed by upper 20s to mid 30s next week. Lows will remain warm in the upper teens.
Rain-wise, forecasts are showing a high probability of dry conditions. That said, thunderstorms are tricky things, and several upper disturbances rippling through over the coming weeks will bring a few chances for showers or thunderstorms.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 26°C while the seasonal overnight low is 13°C.
The summer heat will continue through the remainder of the work week with daytime highs climbing above 30°C.
A broad upper-level ridge building eastwards across the Prairies will continue to produce hot summer weather. While Winnipeg won’t see heat warnings like much of the northern Prairies are seeing1, that’s not to say that it won’t be hot. Temperatures will soar with daytime highs close to 30°C over the next several days. Overnight lows will also remain fairly warm with values in the upper teens.
Hot temperatures will be in place for Winnipeg and the Red River Valley for the summer solstice on Thursday
Sunshine will be in abundance for the Red River Valley today and tomorrow. Some cloud will begin working into the region late Thursday as a low pressure system starts eastwards out of Alberta and across southern Saskatchewan. On Friday, skies will become mixed over the region and light southerly winds will bring more humid conditions to Winnipeg. By Friday evening, the chance for showers or thunderstorms will begin to creep back into the region.
Long Range Outlook
Saturday will continue to bring a chance of showers or thunderstorms to Winnipeg with mixed skies, but conditions will settle Sunday into the first half of next week. Temperatures will remain warm with highs in the upper 20s or low 30s and overnight lows in the upper teens.
It seems that the arrival of the summer solstice this year will be a marker for an extended stretch of hot summer weather!
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 24°C while the seasonal overnight low is 12°C.
That’s largely because the criteria vary from region to region across the Prairies. In Manitoba, areas in the south require 2 consecutive days with highs of 32°C or greater with a low of 16°C or warmer between them. In northern Manitoba, the criteria is slightly lower with daytime highs of only 29°C needed. ↩
Temperatures will soar into the low 20’s today and challenge a long-standing daily record high . Temperatures will then cool for the weekend as a low pressure system tracks through the region, but will still remain seasonably mild with daytime highs in the mid-teens.
Today will be a gorgeous day with temperatures soaring towards record values as very mild air – shown well by 850 mb temperature anomalies of 15 to 20°C above seasonal – moves into southern Manitoba. This mild air is being drawn northwards by a broad area of low pressure strengthening over Alberta. In addition to the warmth, strong southerly winds will develop across the Red River Valley today, reaching a peak near 40 gusting to 60 km/h through the afternoon.
850mb temperatures are forecast to be over 15°C above normal over southern Manitoba.
The southerly winds and mild temperatures aloft will result in daytime highs climbing into the low 20’s today; in Winnipeg, the high should reach 23°C, or perhaps a tad warmer, challenging the current record daily high of 23.9°C set in 1958. Clouds will build into the region through the day, going from sunny skies this morning to mixed skies this afternoon. Tonight should bring variable cloudiness and a low near 15°C. While the overnight low will likely remain higher than the record warmest daily minimum temperature of 12.2°C set in 1953, Winnipeg won’t break a record due to this morning’s chillier low near 7°C.
Winnipeg will see more cloud on Saturday with mixed skies in the morning giving way to mainly cloudy conditions in the afternoon as a low pressure system moves through. Temperatures will be cooler than Friday, but still much warmer than seasonal as highs climb to around 18 or 19°C. Southerly winds of 20 to 30 km/h wills shift to the west-southwest behind a cold front pushing through in the morning. There will be a chance of showers along the cold front as well as a bit later in the afternoon, but at this point it looks like the odds are relatively low. Winds will persist at 20 to 30 km/h overnight as temperatures dip to a low near 6°C.
Several American models show the potential for a few isolated showers on Saturday across southern Manitoba.
Sunday will bring some sunshine back to Winnipeg with any remaining cloud from Saturday’s system clearing out in the morning. Temperatures remain warmer than seasonal with highs near 15 or 16°C as winds shift back to the south ahead of yet another low pressure system zipping across the southern Prairies. Cloud will begin to build back in through the afternoon with a slight chance of showers returning Sunday evening into the night. Lows will dip down to around 7°C.
Long Range
Next week will kick off with a return to seasonal temperatures with northwesterly winds predominant through the Monday and Tuesday. The remainder of the week looks like a bit of a temperature rollercoaster with unsettled conditions, however details remain fuzzy at this point. That said, it looks like much of the week will bring variable cloudiness and a few chances for rain (or snow!) as the storm track slumps southwards.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 9°C while the seasonal overnight low is -2°C.
Strong to severe westerly winds will be out in full force today behind a cold front now pushing into Ontario. These winds are being created by a very potent fall storm over Northern Manitoba which is also bringing up to 25 cm of snow and blizzard conditions to the most northern regions of the province. The remainder of the week looks beautiful, however, with temperatures rebounding quickly back to well above-seasonal values.
Early morning cloud will quickly push eastwards this morning as very strong westerly winds move into the Red River Valley behind a cold front racing eastwards into Ontario. While skies will be sunny, it won’t be a particularly pleasant day out there as winds quickly increase to 50-60 km/h with gusts of 85-95 km/h. Winds will be just a bit lighter to the south of Winnipeg and a bit stronger to the north of Winnipeg. There will be a few areas that may see wind gusts in excess of 100 km/h: areas just downwind of the Riding Mountains and the Turtle Mountains, the Manitoba Lakes (Manitoba, Winnipegosis, Winnipeg), and across portions of the southern Interlake. These strong to severe winds will diminish quickly in the evening hours as temperatures cool and the low pushes off to the northwest.
Strong to severe (darker purple, red) westerly winds will move across southern Manitoba today behind a cold front associated with a potent fall storm moving through northern Manitoba.
All in all, about 9-12 hours of strong to severe winds are expected, so it will not be surprising if damage to buildings occurs. While the sustained winds may be below the EC³ warning criteria, once winds reach the 60 km/h, the stress incurred on buildings across numerous hours can cause structural failures. Hopefully the worst will just be some missing shingles, but recalling the May 18, 2015 wind storm, significant damage can occur with gusts to 90+ km/h. In that storm, winds were over 50 km/h for 20 hours, which we won’t see this time, but the strongest winds occurred in a 6-hour stretch where winds were maintained in excess of 60 km/h. While this isn’t the same storm, and thus we can’t expect the same outcome, it’s entirely possible that we may see damage that looks familiar.
So, other than the wind, temperatures will fall to around 13°C today as cooler air surges in from the northwest. That said, I don’t think there’s any room for complaints when temperatures remain above-seasonal behind a cold front in October. Lows will dip down to around 3°C with light winds and just a few clouds.
Tuesday will be just a tad breezy by comparison, as another warm front pushes into the region and brings southerly winds of 20 gusting to 40 km/h. Temperatures will climb to a high near 18°C under partly cloudy skies. Winds will remain out of the south at 20-30 km/h on Thursday night as skies become mixed and temperatures dip to a low near 8°C.
Temperatures will climb around 15°C above seasonal values on Friday as another surge of very mild air pushes through the province.
Friday will be a late-season “scorcher” in Winnipeg. Despite mixed skies, temperatures will soar to a high near 21°C on Friday afternoon. While we probably won’t be challenging the record high of 23.9°C set in 1958, it may end up coming close if we get enough sunshine. Winds will once again be in place out of the south at 30-40 km/h with some gustiness on top. Expect a low near 13°C on Friday night with winds continuing out of the south to southwest and increasing cloudiness.
Long Range
A second low pressure system will move through Friday night into Saturday, bringing more cloud, cooler temperatures, and a slight chance of showers on Saturday afternoon. While there may be some clearing on Saturday evening/night, more cloud is expected to move in on Sunday ahead of the next low pressure system cross the Prairies. Temperatures will remain above-seasonal throughout the weekend, but after a cold front pushes through on Sunday evening, a west to northwesterly flow will set up for the next few days, bringing seasonal temperatures back to the region.
The extended forecast looks relatively dry, but one wildcard is Saturday and Sunday. Overall, it seems models have having a hard time resolving exactly what kind of low will move through the region, the timing of it, and how much precipitation it will produce. Some models produce little rain with the low coming through — the GFS has essentially no precipitation for much of the Red River Valley — others, such as the GDPS, produce as much as 10-15 mm of rain. The solutions seem to be flipping around quite a bit right now, so it’s hard to pin down exactly what to expect. We’ll certainly be keeping an eye on it and have more details in Friday’s forecast.
Otherwise, next week looks like it will bring variable cloudiness to Winnipeg and the Red River Valley with the occasional chance for some rain showers.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 9°C while the seasonal overnight low is -1°C.
