Tag: Above-Normal Temperatures

Hot And Hazy Start to the Weekend, Cool End

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An approaching low pressure system will bring hot and hazy weather to Winnipeg before a cold front passing Saturday brings a risk of thunderstorms and ushers cooler conditions back into the region.

Winnipeg will continue to see hazy skies today as the over 500 fires that have led to a state of emergency in British Columbia continue to send plumes of some eastwards into the Prairies. The thickest smoke has left the region and winds aloft should keep the main smoke track further north across the central and northern Prairies. Plenty of haze and stagnant high-level smoke will remain in the area with some limited visibility restrictions.1 The significant thinning of the smoke will let the sun shine much more strongly and send daytime highs in the region up into the low 30s. Winds will be out of the south at just 10 to 15 km/h.

Winds will increase out of the south to around 20 km/h tonight as temperatures dip to a low near 15°C under mixed skies.

Saturday should be a scorcher of a day…assuming the smoke can stay away. If we see the sun, then temperatures will soar to a high near 33°C with winds out of the south-southwest at 30 gusting to 50 km/h. Winnipeg will see partly skies in the morning, then a bit more cloud in the afternoon. Some forecasts show some elevated convection developing on Friday night and spreading across portions of western Manitoba and the Interlake. If that does form, it will likely remain north of Winnipeg but will bring some cloud and chances for showers to portions of the province through the morning hours.

A low pressure system crossing the Prairies will likely bring unseasonably warm conditions to the region on Saturday
A low pressure system crossing the Prairies will likely bring unseasonably warm conditions to the region on Saturday

A cold front will push through the Red River Valley late in the afternoon and through Saturday evening, bringing with it the chance for some showers or thunderstorms. At this point, there looks to be minimal chances for severe weather with under 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE forecast and bulk shear values near 20 kt.

The potential pitfall for Saturday’s forecast will be if thicker smoke once again moves into the region. It’s hard to tell at this point whether or not it will. Most guidance suggests it will primarily remain further north, but cold fronts can concentrate smoke ahead of them, so we’ll simply have to wait and see. If thicker smoke ends up returning, temperatures will be cooler and the chances for showers or thunderstorms diminish.

For Saturday night, Winnipeg will see winds diminish and temperatures head to a low near 16°C with a slight chance of showers continuing overnight.

Sunday will bring mostly cloudy skies to the region as an upper trough swings through. A small chance for showers is likely to continue into the morning, followed by clearing skies through the afternoon. Temperatures will be much cooler with a high near 23 or 24°C as northerly winds of 30 gusting 50 km/h move into the region. Temperatures will head to a low near 12°C on Sunday night under clear skies.

Long Range Outlook

Southern Manitoba will be under a northwesterly flow through the first half of next week which should bring clearer skies and near-seasonal temperatures. An upper-level ridge will push eastwards mid-week, bringing warmer weather back to the region alongside the potential for more smoke.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 25°C while the seasonal overnight low is 12°C.

  1. Many places in the air mass we’ll find ourselves in today saw visibilities of 8 to 16 km through the day yesterday. ↩

Hot Weather Returns

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After a very brief cool-down, Winnipeg will see temperatures soar back into the 30s as a hot and hazy air mass returns across the Prairies from British Columbia.

A warm front pushing eastwards across southern Manitoba today will send temperatures in Winnipeg back towards 30°C this afternoon. With low humidity and winds out of the south-southwest around 20 km/h, it will be a rather nice summer day out there. Skies will remain sunny today, however a little haze may move into the Red River Valley this afternoon.

With this spell of warm weather, upper-level winds will once again be transporting smoke eastwards from the British Columbia forest fires. At this point, it looks like the worst of the smoke will remain west of the Red River Valley, particularly over Alberta and Saskatchewan. Winnipeg will likely see hazy conditions move in for Thursday, though, and southwestern Manitoba may see a more concentrated smoke event.

Winnipeg will continue to see clear skies tonight as winds taper off and temperatures drop to a low near 17°C.

Thursday will bring partly cloudy skies to Winnipeg but the more noticeable thing will be the persistent haze entrenched over the region. Temperatures should climb to a high near 30°C again with winds out of the northeast at 15 to 20 km/h. Temperatures will then head to a low near 17°C on Thursday night under clear skies.

Hot conditions will be back in place across the southern Prairies on Friday
Hot conditions will be back in place across the southern Prairies on Friday

By Friday, all indications are that even warmer weather will move into the region, pushing daytime highs to around 33°C under sunny, hazy skies. Winds will pick up out of the south-southwest to around 20 km/h through the day with a few clouds moving in for the evening. Winnipeg will see a warm night with a low near 19°C and increasing cloudiness.

Long Range Outlook

Saturday looks to bring another hot day with mixed skies and a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours. Cooler temperatures will move in for Sunday, kicking off a week of mostly near-seasonal temperatures and benign weather. After this roller coaster of temperatures over the past week, a week of not to too hot and not too cold sounds pretty good!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 25°C while the seasonal overnight low is 12°C.

Possible Record-Breaking Heat Moves Into Southern Manitoba

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Winnipeg will [likely] see record-breaking temperatures over the coming 3 days as a heat wave develops over the province.

Winnipeg will be scorching under the influence of a potent upper-level ridge this weekend. This potentially record-breaking warmth will pose a danger to those who have sensitivities to the heat, especially as overnight lows warm up in the low 20s. With little relief from the heat, it will be important to remain hydrated limit outdoor activities as much as possible late in the morning through the afternoon when the sun is at its highest.

So, how hot will it be? Today will be the initial day of significant heat in the region with temperatures increasing to a high near 35°C under sunny skies. Winds will increase to 15-20 km/h this afternoon. Temperatures will remain mild tonight with a low near 19°C.

Saturday will see even more heat build into the region as winds pick up out of the south to around 30 km/h. Temperatures will climb to a high near 36°C under sunny skies. Saturday night will see a very warm low near 23°C. Sunday appears to be even warmer than Saturday with southerly winds of 20 to 30 km/h continuing. Winnipeg should see a high near 37°C. A passing low pressure system on Sunday night will allow slightly cooler air to begin building back into the region. This should allow temperatures to dip to near the 20°C mark on Sunday night.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Saturday August 11, 2018
Hot temperatures in the mid- to upper-30s will be in place across southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba on Saturday

Fortunately, humidity levels will remain fairly average throughout this event. Strong evapotranspiration may lead to slightly humid conditions in the mornings, but as it quickly warms up the moisture should mix out of the boundary layer and return to more average values. Make no mistakes, though, it’s still going to be extremely hot.

Potential to Break Record Highs

This heat wave will spread significant heat that could potentially break records every day over the coming three days.

Record Temperatures in Winnipeg, MB for August 10-12

DateRecord Maximum TemperatureRecord Warm Minimum Temperature
Aug 1035.2 (1988)20.0 (1947)
Aug 1134.9 (1978)18.9 (1949)
Aug 1235.0 (1972)21.1 (1928)
Record maximum and record warm minimum temperature records for Winnipeg, MB valid as of August 9, 2018

Today will be a close one with daytime highs and overnight lows forecast near the existing records. Both Saturday and Sunday, however, show a strong likelihood of breaking both daytime maximum temperature records as well as record warm overnight lows. These records are derived from ECCC’s official observation database for Winnipeg and are inclusive from 1873-2017.

Long Range Outlook

As mentioned before, a low pressure system with a cold front will move through the region on Sunday night. It looks like the passage of the front will remain dry, but it should bring a return to near to slightly below-seasonal temperatures. Another warm-up into the upper 20s or low 30s is possible in the latter half of next week.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 26°C while the seasonal overnight low is 12°C.

Heat Wave Builds Across Southern Manitoba

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Temperatures in Winnipeg will soar for the remainder of the week as a heat wave builds across southern Manitoba.

Winnipeg will see mainly sunny skies over the next few days as a potent upper-level ridge builds into the region. This feature will send temperatures soaring with daytime highs in the low to mid-thirties through the remainder of the week. Dew point values will remain average, so fortunately mugginess won’t come into play with the heat. Overnight lows will remain warm but not excessively so. Winnipeg should see a low near 17°C tonight and increase to a low near 19°C on Friday night.

A potent upper-level ridge will spread well above-seasonal temperatures across the Prairies through the second half of the week.

That said, by Friday into the weekend, several days of highs near 35°C will result in significant heat stress. If you’re sensitive to heat, it would be best to ensure that you’ve prepared as much as you can by the end of the week. The hottest weather will occur Saturday into Sunday with overnight lows even climbing up into the low 20s.

Long Range Outlook

The relief from the heat is forecast to arrive with a cold front passing through on Sunday night. It looks like there’s a small chance of showers or thunderstorms as it moves through. Behind it, seasonal temperatures will return to the region with generally pleasant weather expected through the first half of the week.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 26°C while the seasonal overnight low is 13°C.