The heat that has been basking southern Manitoba in temperatures well above typical seasonal values will continue through the second half of the week as the upper-level ridge is reinforced and spreads eastwards across the Prairies.
The next few days will be warm, but today will be by far the warmest. Likely record-setting daytime highs will be seen today as the temperature climbs to around 17°C under mainly sunny skies. Winds will be out of the south to southwest at 20-30 km/h. Winnipeg’s record high for November 9th is 14.4°C (set in 1923), so it’s almost a certainty Winnipeg will setting a new record high today.
Temperatures will dip to around 6°C tonight under partly cloudy skies.
Thursday will bring slightly cooler temperatures courtesy a cold front that sweeps through the city early tomorrow morning. Highs will top out around 11°C near Winnipeg and then drop to a low near -1°C tonight under partly cloudy skies.
Friday will be the coolest day of the three as temperatures climb to a high near 6°C under a ridge of high pressure moving through the province. A few clouds will be around through the day and winds will be light. Temperatures will drop to a low near 3°C on Friday night.
Long Range
Temperatures will rebound back into the low teens for the weekend and the start of next week, although skies will be cloudier than these next few days. The chance for precipitation stays low for the next several days. All in all, very pleasant November weather continues!
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 1°C while the seasonal overnight low is -8°C.
Gusty northwesterly winds will flush out the warm air mass that has brought record-setting warmth to the Prairies over the past few days, however the air that moves in behind is still quite warm and above-normal temperatures will continue through the week.
Record High Temperatures Set on Sunday
Several high temperature records were broken yesterday across Southern Manitoba:
New Record High Temperatures Set on November 6, 2016 in Manitoba (Based on weather summary issued by EC at 4:50PM November 6, 2016)
Location
Temperature (°C)
Old Record (°C)
Winnipeg
17.0
16.7 (1975)
Brandon
18.0
17.8 (2009)
Berens River
19.0
16.7 (1916)
Fisher Branch
14.6
14.0 (1981)
Gillam
9.5
7.8 (1975)
Gretna
14.3
13.6 (2010)
Island Lake
18.0
15.0 (1975)
Norway House
13.0
12.2 (1975)
Pinawa
17.9
17.8 (1975)
Sprague
18.1
17.8 (1975)
The Pas
15.0
14.4 (1975)
Additionally, with dewpoint temperatures climbing up to 12.2°C at the airport, Winnipeg officially had its most humid November day on record, beating out the old record of 11.6°C set on November 5, 1956.
The high dewpoint values were evident as moisture in the air spontaneously condensed onto cool pavement through the evening hours.
In fact, it was so humid that most roadways and sidewalks were wet as the humidity in the air condensed onto the cooler pavement, in some places making things so wet that it appeared like it had rained.
Cooler Start to the Week
Today will be a very windy day courtesy of a strong pressure gradient building into the region behind a low pressure system moving through early this morning. Winds will pick up this morning out of the northwest to about 40 km/h with gusts up in the 60-70 km/h range. Otherwise, we’ll see just a few clouds this morning before skies clear out, and then a bit of afternoon cloudiness returning. Temperatures will continue relatively mild, though, with a high near 11°C.
Skies should clear out overnight as temperatures dip to a low near 0°C with diminishing winds.
Tuesday will be a nicer day with a high once again near 11°C and light winds out of the south to southwest. Skies should be partly cloudy. Expect a low near 5°C on Tuesday night under mainly clear skies.
Wednesday will see warmer air once again return to the region. First, there’s a few suggestions that some fog patches may show up early in the morning, but if they were to develop, they would burn off quite quickly, so they wouldn’t be a concern outside of the early morning hours. After that, southerly winds of around 15-20 km/h will redevelop and help temperatures climb to a high near 14°C under fairly sunny conditions. Skies will remain mostly clear overnight as temperatures dip to a low near 7°C.
Long Range
Above-seasonal temperatures continue through the remainder of the week, however the second half of the week is looking a little cooler with highs in the 5-10°C range and with some more cloud cover.
NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid November 14-21, 2016
Looking even further down the road, it appears that the general pattern of above-seasonal temperatures will remain in place into the last third of the month with the NAEFS alongside other guidance suggesting high probabilities of above-normal temperatures. It also continues to look quite dry through this period as well. A beautiful November continues!
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 1°C while the seasonal overnight low is -7°C.
The arrival of warmer weather was delayed due to an extensive fog bank that developed on Wednesday night and persisted through Thursday as fog, mist and overcast skies. Fortunately, that cloud has now been shunted eastwards by a warm front pushing eastwards across the Prairies and the warmer weather promised in our last blog post will arrive today.
Weather Setup
The main feature that will dominate the weather over the coming days is an upper-level ridge establishing itself over the Prairies.
The 500mb height anomalies reveal just how unusual an upper ridge of this strength in November is.
The upper ridge will bring temperatures 10-15°C above normal by Sunday.
This feature will draw highly unseasonal warmth across the entire Prairies and send temperatures over 10°C above normal for this time of year. Alongside the warmer weather, generally dry conditions will persist in areas where the upper-level ridge is established.
Forecast
Today will bring the first of the warmer days as westerly to southwesterly winds bring milder Pacific air eastwards into Southern Manitoba. Skies will be mixed as a weak disturbance brings some mid- to upper-level cloud to the region in the afternoon. Daytime highs in Winnipeg & the Red River Valley will top out around 13°C. Skies will remain fairly cloudy overnight as temperatures dip to a low near 4°C.
Saturday will be a very nice day with partly cloudy skies, light winds out of the south and temperatures climbing to around 15°C. Skies will remain fairly clear on Saturday night with temperatures dipping to near the 6°C mark.
Sunday will see increasing cloud in the afternoon as a disturbance moves up from the Dakotas into southern Manitoba, bringing with it a chance of showers overnight into Monday morning. It will be quite warm, though, with highs climbing up to around 16°C.
Long Range
After Sunday night’s disturbance, a southwesterly flow redevelops over the Prairies and the mild weather returns and persists until the weekend.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 2°C while the seasonal overnight low is -6°C.
A highly anomalous November weather pattern will set up through the remainder of the week, bringing an extended stretch of warm and dry weather to the Red River Valley.
Today will be the last cool, cloudy day for the next while, all thanks to a building 500mb ridge that will dominate the weather pattern for at least the next 5-7 days. Before that happens, though, we’ll need to power through a large deck of stratus cloud working across the Prairies. As a result, today will be fairly cloudy, perhaps a few sunny breaks here and there, with temperatures topping out at a slightly above-seasonal 6°C.
There’s a very slight chance of an afternoon/evening rain shower today as a weak impulse moves over the Red River Valley, but if it were to happen, it would be short-lived and not produce any measurable accumulation. Skies will clear overnight as temperatures drop to around 1°C.
Thursday will bring significantly nicer weather as a large upper-level ridge builds into the Prairies:
An upper-level ridge will build over the Prairies beginning Wednesday evening through Saturday.
This will bring more sun to the region as our mostly cloudy skies are replaced by partly cloudy skies both Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will also be well above seasonal with high temperatures in the 12-15°C range. While these are over 10°C above normal, they likely won’t be record-setting, as the record high temperatures are surprisingly warm for the beginning of November:
Record High Temperatures in Winnipeg for November 2-4
Date
Record High
Year Set
November 2
21.7°C
1903
November 3
18.8°C
2008
November 4
20.0°C
1975
Winds will be relatively light both Thursday and Friday at just 10-20 km/h.
Long Range
The long-range forecast is looking quite pleasant overall. Warm temperatures will continue to dominate the weather story throughout the first half of November as the upper-level ridging continues over the Prairies.
This forecast of 500mb heights for November 11th shows the highly anomalous heights over the Canadian Prairies.
There may be dips in the temperature here and there with the occasional passing disturbance, most likely back to slightly above-seasonal values, but the upper-level ridge will rebound and push milder air back into the region. Conditions should remain fairly dry through this period as well.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 5°C while the seasonal overnight low is -5°C.
