Our November “heatwave” will continue into early this week as temperatures remain well above normal. However, change is coming later this week as a strong low pressure system ushers in a much cooler air mass.
This Week
Today will be fairly nice in southern Manitoba. High temperatures will be near the 10C mark in most areas with mainly sunny skies to start the day. Clouds will begin rolling in as the day progresses, in association with a low pressure system pushing in from the west. This system may bring some light showers to southern Manitoba this evening and tonight, but no major accumulations are expected. Stiff southerly winds will be in place during the day with values of 30 km/h gusting to 50 km/h.
A nice Tuesday is expected, with mainly sunny conditions and “hot” temperatures yet again. The mercury should rise near the 10C mark, which is more than ten degrees warmer than normal for this time of year. Winds will be strong again though, with a westerly flow of 30 km/h gusting to 50 km/h.
Slightly cooler weather appears likely for Wednesday as another low pressure system begins pushing up from the south. As a result, skies will be mainly cloudy with a chance of showers or flurries throughout the day. Winds will be easterly at 20-30 km/h.
Long Range
Models have consistently advertised a strong low pressure system passing through the northern US later this week. This exact track of this system remains unclear, but it appears quite likely that it will usher in a much cooler pattern to southern Manitoba from late this week into the weekend.
While the current GDPS forecast has this storm completely missing Southern Manitoba, the GFS clobbers the region with heavy snow.
Should the system take a northerly track we will also have to contend with heavy precipitation, in addition to the cooler temperatures.
A cold front that passed through yesterday will try to cool things off in Winnipeg, but the heat won’t be kept down for long with well above-normal temperatures bouncing back into the region for the weekend.
A cooler air mass will be in place over Winnipeg today, ushered in by a series of cold fronts which passed through the region on Thursday. Today’s high temperatures will sit around 6°C across Winnipeg & the Red River Valley under sunny skies. While this is 7°C cooler than yesterday and 12°C cooler than Wednesday’s high of 18.8°C, a high of 6°C is still well above the seasonal average high of 0°C.
The wind will begin to pick up out of the south this afternoon, first to 20-30 km/h and then strengthen to 30-40 km/h tonight as a warm front pushes across the Red River Valley. Temperatures will dip to a low near 3°C.
Saturday will bring milder air back to Southern Manitoba. With the warm front off to our east, mainly sunny skies, and light winds, the high of 12 or 13°C will feel quite pleasant. Temperatures will drop to a low near 4°C on Saturday night.
The heat continues on Saturday with temperatures forecast to be over 10°C above normal.
Sunday will bring mixed skies as a cold front sweeps through midday. Temperatures will reach a high near 11 or 12°C before the front comes through, and then the winds will pick up out of the northwest to 20-30 km/h. It doesn’t appear that the passage of the front will bring any rain to the region, but a very light sprinkle can’t be ruled out.
Temperatures will drop to a low near 0-1°C on Sunday night.
Long Range
It appears that the unseasonably warm and dry weather will continue for quite a while yet, with most outlooks showing no sign of significant abatement until next weekend. The biggest sign of change looks to be a system expected to track into our region on Friday November 18th. Models diverge on the general outcome of this system, with two primary possibilities:
A quick-moving system that slides through over 12-18 hours and produces 10-20 mm of rain over Southern Manitoba.
A significantly slower outcome: a potent Colorado Low that could potentially produce a blizzard over Southern Manitoba.
It’s still very early to speculate much on this, but the one thing that looks fairly certain is that, no matter which solution, it will mark a shift in the overall weather pattern that will bring temperatures (generally) back towards seasonal values.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 0°C while the seasonal overnight low is -8°C.
The heat that has been basking southern Manitoba in temperatures well above typical seasonal values will continue through the second half of the week as the upper-level ridge is reinforced and spreads eastwards across the Prairies.
The next few days will be warm, but today will be by far the warmest. Likely record-setting daytime highs will be seen today as the temperature climbs to around 17°C under mainly sunny skies. Winds will be out of the south to southwest at 20-30 km/h. Winnipeg’s record high for November 9th is 14.4°C (set in 1923), so it’s almost a certainty Winnipeg will setting a new record high today.
Temperatures will dip to around 6°C tonight under partly cloudy skies.
Thursday will bring slightly cooler temperatures courtesy a cold front that sweeps through the city early tomorrow morning. Highs will top out around 11°C near Winnipeg and then drop to a low near -1°C tonight under partly cloudy skies.
Friday will be the coolest day of the three as temperatures climb to a high near 6°C under a ridge of high pressure moving through the province. A few clouds will be around through the day and winds will be light. Temperatures will drop to a low near 3°C on Friday night.
Long Range
Temperatures will rebound back into the low teens for the weekend and the start of next week, although skies will be cloudier than these next few days. The chance for precipitation stays low for the next several days. All in all, very pleasant November weather continues!
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 1°C while the seasonal overnight low is -8°C.
Gusty northwesterly winds will flush out the warm air mass that has brought record-setting warmth to the Prairies over the past few days, however the air that moves in behind is still quite warm and above-normal temperatures will continue through the week.
Record High Temperatures Set on Sunday
Several high temperature records were broken yesterday across Southern Manitoba:
New Record High Temperatures Set on November 6, 2016 in Manitoba (Based on weather summary issued by EC at 4:50PM November 6, 2016)
Location
Temperature (°C)
Old Record (°C)
Winnipeg
17.0
16.7 (1975)
Brandon
18.0
17.8 (2009)
Berens River
19.0
16.7 (1916)
Fisher Branch
14.6
14.0 (1981)
Gillam
9.5
7.8 (1975)
Gretna
14.3
13.6 (2010)
Island Lake
18.0
15.0 (1975)
Norway House
13.0
12.2 (1975)
Pinawa
17.9
17.8 (1975)
Sprague
18.1
17.8 (1975)
The Pas
15.0
14.4 (1975)
Additionally, with dewpoint temperatures climbing up to 12.2°C at the airport, Winnipeg officially had its most humid November day on record, beating out the old record of 11.6°C set on November 5, 1956.
The high dewpoint values were evident as moisture in the air spontaneously condensed onto cool pavement through the evening hours.
In fact, it was so humid that most roadways and sidewalks were wet as the humidity in the air condensed onto the cooler pavement, in some places making things so wet that it appeared like it had rained.
Cooler Start to the Week
Today will be a very windy day courtesy of a strong pressure gradient building into the region behind a low pressure system moving through early this morning. Winds will pick up this morning out of the northwest to about 40 km/h with gusts up in the 60-70 km/h range. Otherwise, we’ll see just a few clouds this morning before skies clear out, and then a bit of afternoon cloudiness returning. Temperatures will continue relatively mild, though, with a high near 11°C.
Skies should clear out overnight as temperatures dip to a low near 0°C with diminishing winds.
Tuesday will be a nicer day with a high once again near 11°C and light winds out of the south to southwest. Skies should be partly cloudy. Expect a low near 5°C on Tuesday night under mainly clear skies.
Wednesday will see warmer air once again return to the region. First, there’s a few suggestions that some fog patches may show up early in the morning, but if they were to develop, they would burn off quite quickly, so they wouldn’t be a concern outside of the early morning hours. After that, southerly winds of around 15-20 km/h will redevelop and help temperatures climb to a high near 14°C under fairly sunny conditions. Skies will remain mostly clear overnight as temperatures dip to a low near 7°C.
Long Range
Above-seasonal temperatures continue through the remainder of the week, however the second half of the week is looking a little cooler with highs in the 5-10°C range and with some more cloud cover.
NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid November 14-21, 2016
Looking even further down the road, it appears that the general pattern of above-seasonal temperatures will remain in place into the last third of the month with the NAEFS alongside other guidance suggesting high probabilities of above-normal temperatures. It also continues to look quite dry through this period as well. A beautiful November continues!
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 1°C while the seasonal overnight low is -7°C.
