Tag: Above-Normal Temperatures

Warmer Weather Finally Arrives

Brad Leave a comment

The arrival of warmer weather was delayed due to an extensive fog bank that developed on Wednesday night and persisted through Thursday as fog, mist and overcast skies. Fortunately, that cloud has now been shunted eastwards by a warm front pushing eastwards across the Prairies and the warmer weather promised in our last blog post will arrive today.

Weather Setup

The main feature that will dominate the weather over the coming days is an upper-level ridge establishing itself over the Prairies.

This feature will draw highly unseasonal warmth across the entire Prairies and send temperatures over 10°C above normal for this time of year. Alongside the warmer weather, generally dry conditions will persist in areas where the upper-level ridge is established.

Forecast

Today will bring the first of the warmer days as westerly to southwesterly winds bring milder Pacific air eastwards into Southern Manitoba. Skies will be mixed as a weak disturbance brings some mid- to upper-level cloud to the region in the afternoon. Daytime highs in Winnipeg & the Red River Valley will top out around 13°C. Skies will remain fairly cloudy overnight as temperatures dip to a low near 4°C.

Saturday will be a very nice day with partly cloudy skies, light winds out of the south and temperatures climbing to around 15°C. Skies will remain fairly clear on Saturday night with temperatures dipping to near the 6°C mark.

Sunday will see increasing cloud in the afternoon as a disturbance moves up from the Dakotas into southern Manitoba, bringing with it a chance of showers overnight into Monday morning. It will be quite warm, though, with highs climbing up to around 16°C.

Long Range

After Sunday night’s disturbance, a southwesterly flow redevelops over the Prairies and the mild weather returns and persists until the weekend.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 2°C while the seasonal overnight low is -6°C.

Extended Period of Unseasonal Warmth On The Way

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A highly anomalous November weather pattern will set up through the remainder of the week, bringing an extended stretch of warm and dry weather to the Red River Valley.

Today will be the last cool, cloudy day for the next while, all thanks to a building 500mb ridge that will dominate the weather pattern for at least the next 5-7 days. Before that happens, though, we’ll need to power through a large deck of stratus cloud working across the Prairies. As a result, today will be fairly cloudy, perhaps a few sunny breaks here and there, with temperatures topping out at a slightly above-seasonal 6°C.

There’s a very slight chance of an afternoon/evening rain shower today as a weak impulse moves over the Red River Valley, but if it were to happen, it would be short-lived and not produce any measurable accumulation. Skies will clear overnight as temperatures drop to around 1°C.

Thursday will bring significantly nicer weather as a large upper-level ridge builds into the Prairies:

An upper-level ridge will build over the Prairies beginning Wednesday evening through Saturday.
An upper-level ridge will build over the Prairies beginning Wednesday evening through Saturday.

This will bring more sun to the region as our mostly cloudy skies are replaced by partly cloudy skies both Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will also be well above seasonal with high temperatures in the 12-15°C range. While these are over 10°C above normal, they likely won’t be record-setting, as the record high temperatures are surprisingly warm for the beginning of November:

Record High Temperatures in Winnipeg for November 2-4
Date Record High Year Set
November 2 21.7°C 1903
November 3 18.8°C 2008
November 4 20.0°C 1975

Winds will be relatively light both Thursday and Friday at just 10-20 km/h.

Long Range

The long-range forecast is looking quite pleasant overall. Warm temperatures will continue to dominate the weather story throughout the first half of November as the upper-level ridging continues over the Prairies.

This forecast of 500mb heights for November 11th shows the highly anomalous heights over the Canadian Prairies.
This forecast of 500mb heights for November 11th shows the highly anomalous heights over the Canadian Prairies.

There may be dips in the temperature here and there with the occasional passing disturbance, most likely back to slightly above-seasonal values, but the upper-level ridge will rebound and push milder air back into the region. Conditions should remain fairly dry through this period as well.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 5°C while the seasonal overnight low is -5°C.

More Wet Weather on the Way

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More rain is in store early this week as a well-developed low pressure system pushes across southern Manitoba. Accumulations will be relatively small in the Red River Valley, but more significant to the north and west.

A strong low pressure system will bring rain to southern Manitoba today
A strong low pressure system will bring rain to southern Manitoba today

This Week

Rain will move into southern Manitoba today in association with a strong low pressure system coming out of Montana. Light rain will likely begin in the Red River Valley this morning, continuing into the afternoon. Models show a break in the rain during the evening hours, which might just provide a good window for trick-or-treating. Regardless of whether it’s raining or not, temperatures will be favourable for the youngsters to be outdoors, with temperatures hovering in the mid-single digits. Total rainfall of 2-5 mm is expected today, with another 2-5 mm tonight. Parts of western Manitoba and the Interlake can expect total accumulations ranging from 10 to 25 mm.

Today’s weather system will still be lingering over Manitoba on Tuesday, with some showers remaining possible through Tuesday morning. A drier flow should develop by Tuesday afternoon, signalling an end to the precipitation. Temperatures will remain relatively normal for late October, with high temperatures in the mid to upper single digits in southern Manitoba. Winds will be breezy out of the west at 20-30 km/h.

Nicer weather should arrive for Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure builds over the region. Mainly sunny skies and temperatures around or just below 10C are expected. Wednesday’s nice conditions should signal the beginning of a significant warm spell which should last into next week. Winds should be relatively light thanks to the surface ridge.

Long Range

Medium- to long-range models have been strongly hinting at a significant warm-up beginning mid to late this week. An anomalously strong upper ridge of high pressure is expected to build over Central North America, signalling a period of well-above seasonal conditions for Manitoba. Given that our normal high is 4C, we can easily expect temperatures of 10-15C. It is not impossible that we reach the upper teens once or twice when the “heat” peaks sometime over the weekend or next week. Models strongly suggest that this above-seasonal pattern will exist for most, if not all, of the first half of November.

An unusually strong upper-level ridge will build over Manitoba by next weekend
An unusually strong upper-level ridge will build over Manitoba by next weekend

Friday’s Disturbance Leads To Cooler Weekend

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Cooler, more seasonal temperatures will push into Winnipeg & the Red River Valley this weekend behind a low pressure system that will bring rain to portions of Southern Manitoba on Friday.

Today will bring a low pressure system, talked about in Wednesday’s forecast, through the province. In that post, we discussed how there was uncertainty in the track of the low, and that it seemed like much of the rain associated with it would fall across the Interlake. With the system imminent now, it’s become readily apparent that it will indeed primarily affect areas to the north of Winnipeg, at least for much of the day today.

Today will be a cloudy one across Winnipeg & the Red River Valley with light winds and temperatures climbing to a high near 12°C. Late this afternoon, winds will pick up out of the northwest to around 30 km/h, bringing with them a chance of some rain as a cold front sweeps southwards across the province. No significant accumulations are expected in Winnipeg, unlike the further north where 15-25 mm are possible along a west-east line running from Swan River eastwards across the Northern Interlake and Berens River.

With the gusty northerly winds and light showers tonight will come dropping temperatures. Lows should sit near 2°C tonight with winds tapering off towards Saturday morning. With the cooler temperatures and northwesterly winds, there may also be more persistent shower activity in the lee of Lakes Manitoba & Winnipeg as a result of weak lake-effect precipitation.

Light shower activity is expected across Southern Manitoba on Friday night.
Light shower activity is expected across Southern Manitoba on Friday night.

Saturday will be a mainly cloudy day with light winds and a much cooler, more seasonal high near 6°C. Expect continued cloud cover on Saturday night with lows near 1°C.

Sunday will start off cloudy but will likely bring an occasional sunny break in the afternoon. Temperatures will continue seasonal with a high near 8 or 9°C, but the wind will be more noticeable as it picks up out of the south to around 30 km/h once again. There’s a slight chance that it could end up even slightly windier than that, with sustained winds near 40 km/h, but at this point guidance suggests winds will be closer to the 30 km/h mark.

Expect a low on Sunday night near 5°C under partly cloudy skies.

Long Range

Guidance continues to be fairly consistent in a low pressure system moving through the province on Monday that will bring a soaking rain to much of Southern Manitoba. It’s a bit early for exact numbers, but general amounts 10-25 mm have been consistently produced by guidance over the past several days. After that system moves through, an upper ridge will build into the southern Prairies and…

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid November 4, 2016 to November 11, 2016
NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid November 4, 2016 to November 11, 2016

Dry weather with an extremely high likelihood of above-seasonal temperatures will be on the way for Southern Manitoba, alongside much of North America, through the second half of next week. So hang tight, it looks like we have some beautiful November weather ahead!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 6°C while the seasonal overnight low is -4°C.