After a couple cooler and unsettled days, sunnier skies and warmer weather will build back into southern Manitoba this weekend.
Significantly warmer temperatures will begin to spread east across the Prairies on Saturday.
To wrap up the work week, Winnipeg will start the day with mixed skies and a slight chance of showers. A weak disturbance over the region this morning will bring that chance of unsettled weather, but it will dissipate as the day wears on. Winnipeg will likely see mixed skies continue into the afternoon as temperatures climb to around 20 °C.
Temperatures will head to a low in the 5–10 °C range tonight with light winds and clear skies.
Heading into the weekend, an upper ridge will build across the Prairies, bringing heat back to the region. Southerly winds will increase into the 20–30 km/h range on Saturday with highs pushing back into the mid-20s. The city should see partly cloudy to mixed skies through much of Saturday, but no chance of rain.
Winds will ease on Saturday night as skies clear and temperatures head down into the low teens.
On Sunday, temperatures will climb back up into the upper 20s with light winds and sunny skies. It will cool down overnight back to the low teens again.
Long Range Outlook
The upper ridge will continue to pump heat into the region to start next week, sending daytime highs close to around 30 °C. Much of next week will bring seasonably hot conditions with highs mainly in the 25–30 °C range.
There’s little to no chance of rain until the second half of the week, but the most likely chance for rain will develop towards the weekend when the upper ridge begins to break down and cooler temperatures begin to push back into southern Manitoba.
Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 20 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 8 °C.
An energetic and dynamic weather system lifting through the Prairies will bring hot and humid weather to Winnipeg this weekend. As it passes through on Sunday, severe thunderstorms will be possible across the region.
Hot and humid weather will build into the southeastern Prairies this weekend.
Now that the morning fog and stratus has burnt away, it will get cooking over the Red River Valley. Temperatures will climb close to 30 °C with dew points close to 20 °C making it feel like the upper 30s through the afternoon.
Heading into the night, a low pressure centre will develop over southern Alberta and begin moving northeast. As it forms, it will begin to lift a warm front northwards out of the United States. This will bring partly cloudy conditions to the region overnight with strengthening southerly winds. Winds in Winnipeg will likely reach around 20 km/h by early Saturday morning, then quickly strengthen into the 30 to 40 km/h range as it warms up.
Saturday will bring mixed skies to Winnipeg with a high in the low 30s. Dew point values should sit in the high teens, though an axis of ≥ 20 °C dew points is forecast to lie immediately west of the Red River Valley. This again will result in humidex values in the upper 30s through much of Saturday.
It will be a hot, muggy night on Saturday night with overnight lows dipping only into the low 20s. The breezy southerly winds should continue through the night under partly cloudy skies.
Severe Thunderstorm Threat Develops on Sunday
The system moving through the Prairies, in addition to the heat and humidity here, will bring multiple rounds of potentially severe thunderstorms to the broader region. Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over southwestern Saskatchewan; these storms will blossom into an area of showers and thunderstorms that track northeast across southern Saskatchewan overnight. On Saturday, another round of severe thunderstorms are possible beginning near the Manitoba/Saskatchewan border in the afternoon and spreading northeast across the Interlake through the night. Much of this activity is expected to stay north of the Trans-Canada Highway corridor in the Red River Valley, but isolated thunderstorms look possible in SW Manitoba.
By Sunday, though, it becomes the Red River Valley’s turn for thunderstorm activity. Sunday will likely be the warmest, muggiest day of the three with highs in the low 30s and dew points climbing into the low 20s, making it feel a lot closer to 40. The southerly winds will weaken in the afternoon as a warm-sector trough moves into the region.
For the enthusiasts out there: both the dynamic and thermodynamic setup for Sunday points towards a potent thunderstorm risk. The heat and humidity will drive MLCAPE values to over 2,500 J/kg, while late the day the right entrance to a 50 knot jet streak at H500 slides over the region. Surface winds ahead of the warm-sector trough are solid at 15 knots out of the SSE, but winds become weak and disorganized between the trough and the cold front. Bulk shear values are roughly 30 to 35 knots. MLLCL values are forecast to be moderate, roughly around 3,000 feet. Lastly, PWAT values will climb above 45 mm with Bunker storm motion values around 15 to 20 knots out of southwest.
An axis of significant amounts of instability, capable of producing dangerous thunderstorms, will develop over the Red River Valley on Sunday.
The result of all that is that there is a potent thunderstorm risk that will develop on Sunday afternoon. Either the warm-sector trough or approaching cold front could be drivers for initiation, and both will be capable of producing dangerous thunderstorms capable of producing all modes of severe weather: very large and damaging hail, wind gusts of 90 to 120 km/h or higher, tornadoes, and torrential downpours capable of localized flash flooding.
All storms will have a roughly equal chance of producing damaging hail or wind gusts. There is a non-zero tornado threat across the region, though it will likely be maximized south of Winnipeg; a weak low centre is forecast to develop over northwestern North Dakota and weaken as it tracks northeast; if it holds together it could result in a stronger, more backed surface flow towards the southwestern Red River Valley that could enhance the tornado risk. Every thunderstorm will produce very heavy rainfall, but relatively high storm motions will likely limit the amount of rain a single storm gives to any one place. Widespread amounts of 20 to 50 mm are possible with the thunderstorm activity. If an area happens to have multiple thunderstorms pass over them, or a storm lingers for a longer period, then accumulations of 50 to 125 mm will be possible.
The thunderstorm activity will track east into the evening, pushed along by an advancing cold front moving through the region. Temperatures will head back down into the upper teens with a moderate northwest wind overnight.
Long Range Outlook
Next week will be an unsettled one for the region with seasonal temperatures. Monday should be pleasant, then cloud and showers will be possible on Tuesday as the region is clipped by a system moving through the Dakotas.
Showers and thunderstorms will again be possible on Wednesday evening through Thursday as another low pushes into the Prairies.
And that’s it for today! Stay safe in the heat, enjoy what you can, and make sure to check on anyone you know who’s more vulnerable (especially on Saturday night).
Beautiful summer weather will continue in Winnipeg, though a disturbance passing mid-week could bring showers to the region.
It will be a hot day in the Red River Valley on Tuesday with highs near 30 °C.
Warm and sunny weather will continue in Winnipeg thanks to an upper ridge that remains in place over the region. This will leave Winnipeg today in a southerly flow between an area of high pressure over NW Ontario and a developing area of low pressure in southern Alberta.
As a result, it will be another hot day in Winnipeg as temperatures climb to the 30 °C mark with southerlies up to around 20 km/h. Skies will become mixed today as cloud cover left over from a disturbance in Saskatchewan drifts through the region. Temperatures will dip into the mid-teens tonight with light winds and a few clouds.
Wednesday will be another pleasant day with temperatures climbing up into the upper 20s and southerlies up into the 20–30 km/h range. A mainly sunny start to the day will give way to a few clouds in the afternoon. All in all, a beautiful day.
Wednesday night will bring a change in the weather as a low pressure system begins to track east across the Prairies. It will spread cloud into Winnipeg on Wednesday night with lows down to around 20 °C.
Thunderstorms will likely develop along this system’s warm-sector trough on Wednesday night, beginning over Montana and southern Saskatchewan and pushing into Manitoba in the early morning hours.
This will bring a chance of showers or thunderstorms to the Winnipeg area on Thursday morning. The chance will steadily s drop from mid-day onwards with sunny breaks developing in the afternoon. Southerly winds up to around 20 km/h will shift southwesterly by the end of the day. The cloud cover will keep temperatures cooler with a high in the mid-20s.
Long Range Outlook
Summer heat will return to end the week with daytime highs near 30 °C on Friday through Sunday. Dew point values will persist in the upper teens, making for slightly muggy conditions that feel closer to the mid-30s. And to top it off, Winnipeg should see plenty of sunshine throughout the weekend!
Enjoy that summer warmth while it’s here!
Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 24 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 11 °C.
Hot and humid conditions will continue this week in Winnipeg with the occasional chance of thunderstorms.
It will be a hot and humid day across southern Manitoba with daytime highs in the low 30s.
We’re back! This hiatus was longer than originally thought, but between minor burn-out with work, minor health concerns, travel, and a busy family schedule, there wasn’t much left in the tank by the time I could sit down and write. Things are in a better spot now, though! I’m rested — I was fortunate to be able to take much of July off — and the schedule is calming down. I hope to be back to writing twice weekly, but we’ll see how the summer schedule goes. That said, I’m starting this post off wanting to write instead of feeling like I have to write, which is a good start.
And what a day to get back at it. It will be a hot one in Winnipeg today as a low pressure system pushing into central Manitoba draws a hot air mass into the southern reaches of the province. Daytime highs will climb into the low 30s in the Red River Valley with muggy conditions as dew points climb back above 20 °C. The heat and humidity will combine to make it feel closer to 40 this afternoon.
Heading into the evening, a trough of low pressure will begin digging into this hot and humid air mass from the west. The environment over southern Manitoba will be primed for strong to severe thunderstorms. It will be an extremely unstable air mass characterized by MLCAPE values in excess of 2,500 J/kg and winds over the region will produce 20 to 30 knots of deep shear and be favourable for discrete supercell development. If any thunderstorms are able to develop along this trough, it is likely that they will quickly become severe thunderstorms capable of torrential rain, large hail, damaging wind gusts, and pose a low risk of a tornado.
All that said, though, it remains a low risk. By late in the day, a mid-level axis of warm air will be positioned over the region, and warm air aloft will work against the development of thunderstorms. With the potential potency of thunderstorm activity later today and its uncertainty, be sure to stay aware of any alerts that may be issued later today by the Meteorological Service of Canada.
If thunderstorms develop, the activity could persist into the overnight period, weakening as the night goes on.
Tomorrow will be another mainly sunny and hot day. The trough of low pressure will linger in the region, but much of the Red River Valley will sit west of it; this will give northwest winds to much of the region, bringing a slight easing of the humidity as dew points drop back into the upper teens. Daytime highs will climb back into the upper 20s with partly cloudy skies. There is a slight risk of a thunderstorm later in the day, but much of the instability will have shifted east and the likelihood looks low.
Thursday will bring sunny skies to the region as temperatures head back into the low 30s. The humidity will likely continue to ease, making for a less muggy day than the region will see today.
All three nights — tonight, Wednesday night, and Thursday night — will bring lows in the upper teens or low 20s and light winds.
Long Range Outlook
Friday will bring more heat and sunshine to the region with daytime highs near 30 °C, but with less humidity than seen through the earlier parts of the week. Sometime Friday night or early Saturday, a cold front will push through southern Manitoba and bring a chance of showers or thunderstorms. Behind it, conditions will settle and temperatures will return to seasonal values.
A stretch of seasonal temperatures is expected to persist through the weekend and into next week. This, unfortunately, could result in forest fire smoke from western Canada spreading into southern Manitoba. It’s too early to tell, but keep in mind that those cooler temperatures could come with degraded air quality.
Stay cool today, check on those you know who don’t have A/C, and have a good week!
Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 13 °C.
