I apologize for the brevity of this post, but with an illness sweeping through the house, I haven’t had too much time to elaborate on the coming days. That said, we have a nice weekend ahead with mild temperatures and plenty of sunshine!
Today will be a pretty nice day with mixed skies and a high near 19°C. Winds will be a bit more prominent out of the south at around 20 km/h with some gusts on top of that this afternoon. Winnipeg will see a thicker band of cloud move through overnight and with it will come a slight chance of some light showers. Temperatures will dip down to about 12°C tonight.
Tomorrow will see morning cloud clearing out as temperatures climb to a high near 21°C. Winds will once again be out of the south at around 15-20 km/h. Expect a low near 13°C.
Sunday will be another nice day with partly cloudy skies and a high near 22°C. Winnipeg will see more cloud move in on Sunday night as a series of disturbances begin moving into the region, bringing several days of unsettled weather to the region to start next week.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 15°C while the seasonal overnight low is 3°C.
The sunny weather is arriving later than expected in Winnipeg no thanks to persistent low cloud that simply wouldn’t leave the region despite clear skies working in on either side of the Red River Valley. With that behind us, though, the warm weather arrives today alongside plenty of sunshine for what will be the start to a beautiful weekend in the Winnipeg area.
A fairly pleasant day is on the way today with the sun finally making an appearance, sending temperatures well above normal and close to record values. The mercury will climb towards the 10°C mark this afternoon, slightly short of the record value of 12.8°C that was at in 2012. The wind will be fairly gusty out of the south this morning and will shift to breezy out of the west behind a warm front that passes through midday.
Skies will be mixed as some remnants of yesterday’s low cloud clear out and are replaced by variable cloud from the warm front moving through the region. We will see sunshine today, particularly once the drier westerly winds kick in and flush out any remaining moisture stuck in the Valley.
The overnight low is expected to dip down to around -1°C tonight under partly cloudy skies and diminishing winds.
Saturday will be the nicest day of the of the weekend with partly cloudy skies, relatively light winds and very mild temperatures. The daytime high on Saturday will climb to around 10-11°C, a potentially record-breaking high for March 12th.
Mild air continues to flow over Southern Manitoba on Saturday night as southerly winds increase ahead of an incoming trough of low pressure. Winds will increase to around 30-40km/h late Saturday. The warmer air moving in alongside the wind will keep overnight lows fairly mild; the temperature will dip only to 2 or 3°C on Saturday night.
The GDPS precipitation forecast for Sunday afternoon into the evening.
Sunday will be a mild day but the weather will turn cloudier and potentially wet. A trough of low pressure moving into the province will result in a cloudier day with a high once again near 11°C. Heading into the afternoon, the chance for some rain will increase throughout the Red River Valley and areas east. Significant rainfall is not expected[1], but for the areas that end up seeing any precipitation, a few mm may be possible. The cloud will help temperatures remain very mild on Sunday night with temperatures expected to dip to near 4°C.
New Record Temperatures?
We have the potential of breaking some record temperatures over the next few days, particularly on Saturday and Sunday.
Daily Record High and Record Warm Minimum Temperatures for Winnipeg, MB
Date
Record High
Record Warm Min
March 11
12.8°C (2012)
2.8°C (1878)
March 12
9.7°C (2012)
2.5°C (2012)
March 13
12.2°C (1902)
1.6°C (1995)
Saturday’s high near 10°C will challenge the 3 year old record from 2012. Saturday night’s low near 2 or 3°C combined with Sunday night’s low near 4°C may challenge the record warmest low temperature for March 13, which currently sits at 1.6°C and was set in 1995.
Sunday’s high temperature is not expected to reach the current record of 12.2°C set in 1902. The low near -1°C on Friday night will prevent the record warm low temperature for March 12th of 2.5°C set in 2012 from being broken.
Long Range: Mild & Unsettled
Heading into next week the forecast is for continued warmth for the first half of the week and then a return towards seasonal values through the second half.
GDPS forecast temperatures for Winnipeg, MB
Regarding precipitation, most of any potential will be tied up in a mid-week low pressure system that will usher in the cooler temperatures. It appears like it will be a complex mess of multiple low pressure systems merging into a vortex over Northern Ontario, so at this point it would be an exercise in futility to try and make any guesses on what any one place will see from that system. It’s probably safe to say that there will be a chance for rain changing to snow mid-week.
But, before then, enjoy the spring warmth!
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -2°C while the seasonal overnight low is -12°C.
Although, as shown above, the GDPS is forecasting convective elements that could produce 10-20mm of rain, I’m not convinced at this point that potential will be realized. I’ll post an update in the comments below if Sunday looks like it may produce some heavier showers. ↩
Temperatures will be cooler behind yesterday’s Colorado Low that grazed the southeastern portion of the province, however the mercury won’t be dipping much. Today will be the coolest day of the week and yet temperatures will still remain above seasonal for mid-March. The cooler weather will be short-lived before another surge of warm air that will bring spring weather to the Red River Valley, potentially threatening record high and record warm minimum temperatures!
Today will be a relatively cool day with the temperature climbing to the freezing mark with a light south-southeasterly wind. Skies will be mixed through the day with a bit of sun and a few cloudy periods, particularly mid-day into the afternoon. Much of the cloud will clear out tonight as temperatures dip to near -6°C.
After today, though, the heat starts moving eastwards and temperatures will soar to 10-15°C above normal for mid-March. Thursday will bring partly cloudy skies[1] and daytime highs climbing towards the 6°C mark with light southerly winds continuing. If temperatures manage to eke just a degree or so higher, there will be a chance of breaking Winnipeg’s record high temperature for March 20th.
Daily Record High and Record Warm Minimum Temperatures for Winnipeg, MB
Day
Record High
Record Warm Minimum
Thursday March 10
6.7°C (1902)
0.6 (1878)
Friday March 11
12.8°C (2012)
2.8°C (1878)
The mercury will dip to around 3°C on Thursday night with southerly winds strengthening to around 30km/h. This mild overnight low will set Winnipeg up for another potentially record-breaking day on Friday, where partly cloudy skies will give way to temperatures climbing into the low teens. The daytime high on Friday will likely sit near 11°C, however throughout the entire city the temperature could easily be in the 10-15°C range. The airport is typically on the cooler side, so it will be a bit of a nail-biter as to whether we break the record high of 12.8°C set in 2012.
The GDPS is forecasting 850mb temperatures over 20°C above normal for Friday morning.
Depending on how fast things cool off in the evening, we may also see the record warm minimum temperature for March 11 be broken as well. The record is currently 2.8°C set in 1878, which will require a temperature warmer than that through Thursday night and a temperature remaining warmer than than until midnight on Friday night.
In addition to the warmth, of note particularly for Friday is the potential for unseasonably high dewpoint values. While the GDPS is fairly conservative with dewpoints remaining near the 1°C mark, several other models are showing dewpoint values rising into the upper single digits. There are two main stories if the elevated dewpoints do indeed show up:
We could break the record high dewpoint in Winnipeg for March 11, which currently sits at 6.0°C set in 2012.
There would be huge amounts of snow melt. The process of snow melt is limited when dewpoint values remain below 0°C for a variety of thermodynamic reasons. As the dewpoint climbs above 0°C, melting becomes significantly more efficient. By the time the dewpoint climbs to even +4 or +5°C, snow melt can be enormous if combined with mild temperatures. If these elevated dewpoints arrived for Friday with a high in the low teens, then almost certainly a dramatic portion of the remaining snow pack in the Red River Valley would be gone by this time next week.
Long Range: Warm, Warm, Warm!
The long-range forecast looks quite simple: continued warmth.
CPC 6-10 Day Temperature Probability Outlook valid March 14-18, 2016
Long-range forecasts show a high likelihood of the mild weather continuing well into next week. This will mean that daytime highs in the 5-10°C range, if not even warmer, will be commonplace through the next week.
This warmth, combined with little-to-no expected precipitation through the period, will continue to rapidly erode the snow pack over the Red River Valley, further enabling milder temperatures to develop. Spring-like weather has arrived!
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -3°C while the seasonal overnight low is -13°C.
There’s a slight risk of seeing cooler temperatures and more cloud if a system tracking through the Prairies slumps a bit further south, but at this point it looks like much of the cloud will remain to our north. ↩
2015 brought a huge assortment of wild weather to Southern Manitoba. From torrential rains, damaging wind storms, tornadoes, and above-normal temperatures to snow storms, there wasn’t much waiting between significant weather events. Here’s our top 10 weather stories of 2015!
#10 – Parade of Snowstorms Just Before Christmas
Three snowstorms dumped a total of 40 cm of snow from December 16th to 23rd in Winnipeg.
The biggest snowstorm occurred on the 16th and 17th, dumping 20 cm. Strong winds helped carve drifts up to two-feet deep in some spots. 18 cm fell on December 16th alone at the official Charleswood station, breaking the old record of 8.4 cm in 1942 for the day.
Snowfall totals from the December 22-23, 2015 snow storm
With all the snow in mid December, travel was dramatically impacted. Residential streets were difficult to navigate and numerous vehicles were reported stuck in the snow. Thanks to the snowfall, snow depth in Winnipeg sat at 30 cm on Christmas morning; this was the deepest snow pack on Christmas Day in 15 years (since a 30 cm depth in 2000). In total, 44.0 cm of snow fell in Winnipeg in December, 83% above normal and the 12th snowiest December on record since 1872.
#9 – Dry Winter and Warm January
After a frigid start to January, a warm spell blessed southern Manitoba with above normal temperatures. A 17-day streak of above normal temperatures occurred from January 14 to 30. During this period, daily highs averaged -1.9°C and daily lows averaged -12.1°C, about 10°C warmer than normal. 6 days in the period exceeded the freezing mark and 6 days never saw temperatures dip below -10°C. The warmest days were January 22 and 23 when temperatures soared to 3.7°C and 3.1°C at the airport respectively. It was warmer inside the city with highs between 4 and 6°C. Some parts of southern Manitoba never even dipped below freezing on January 23. The extended warm spell melted what little snow was on the ground. By January 31, snow depth in Winnipeg was 12 cm, the 12th thinnest on record for the day since 1941. Gloomy skies and freezing drizzle were also common during the warm spell.
In the end, January averaged -13.7°C, tied with 2010 for 19th warmest since 1873.
Overall, it was a very dry winter. Only about 31 mm of precipitation fell from December to February, the 9th driest winter on record since 1872. 44.4 cm of snow fell, the 29th least snowy winter.
#8 – A Summer of High Humidity
With an average dewpoint of 13.6°C (June to August), summer 2015 tied with 1996 for 4th most humid summer on record in Winnipeg since 1953. 22 days from June to August saw dewpoints exceed 20°C, the 2nd most since 1953 and well above the normal of 10 days.
Dewpoint temperatures in July specifically averaged 16.1°C, the 2nd most humid July and month on record since 1953. The 1981-2010 normal is 14.2°C. An 8-day streak with dewpoints over 20°C occurred mid month. A maximum dewpoint of 24.1°C was achieved on July 12, breaking the old record of 23.9°C in 1955 for the day. 14 days saw dewpoints over 20°C, tied with 1957 for most on record in July since 1953.
A 5-day heat wave hit southern Manitoba in mid August. Temperatures exceeded 30°C and on some days 32°C. August 14 was the hottest day with some records broken, including in Brandon with a high of 36.6°C. Four days with dewpoints over 20°C accompanied the heat wave. Dewpoint temperature peaked at 24.5°C in Winnipeg on August 15, shattering the old record of 21.7°C in 1972 for the day. It was also the latest occurrence of dewpoint over 24°C since 1953. High minimum temperature records were also broken in Winnipeg (21.2°C) and Morden (22.0°C).
#7 – Summer in September
September began with a three-day heat wave as temperatures exceeded 30°C and in some cases 32°C. Oppressive humidity accompanied the heat which is unusual for September. The main records broken during the heat wave are listed below. Note: temperature records go back to 1872 while dewpoint and humidex records go back to 1953.
Record high minimum of 21.0°C on the 3rd was also the second highest in September.
Two high dewpoint and three high minimum dewpoint records were broken, including:
High dewpoint of 23.1°C on the 3rd was also just shy of the all-time September high of 23.4°C in 1983 and was the second highest in September.
A high minimum dewpoint of 18.7°C on the 3rd was also an all-time high for September.
Humidex reached 42.0 on the 3rd, the second highest in September. This, along with a humidex value of 40.1 the previous day, were only two of six occurrences of humidex over 40 in September since 1953.
Strong thunderstorms on the 4th and 5th ended the heat wave with a bang. Severe storms between 1 and 8 am on the 4th dropped dime to toonie size hail southeast of Winnipeg and northwest of Minnedosa. Strong thunderstorms moved up the Red River Valley in the afternoon. The Winnipeg area saw 30 to 50 mm of rain in under an hour, causing severe street flooding. Wind gusts over 80 km/h also caused some damage. With more rain later on, daily totals sat between 40 and 60 mm. The airport recorded 41.1 mm, breaking the record of 36.8 mm in 1872. Heavy thunderstorms moved up the Red River Valley again on the 5th, dumping 15-40 mm of rain southeast of Winnipeg.
Another 30°C day occurred on September 13. Winnipeg reached 31.6°C, just shy of the record of 31.7°C in 1927. Records were broken along the US border including in Morden and Pilot Mound where highs of 33.8°C and 33.3°C occurred.
It was the 6th warmest September on record since 1872 in Winnipeg with an average mean temperature of 15.8°C. It was also the second warmest since 1949. Dewpoint temperatures averaged 9.8°C, the 3rd most humid September since 1953.
#6 – A Very Early Spring
April-like temperatures arrived by the second week of March. Record highs were achieved on the 14th and 15th. Winnipeg reached 13.2°C on March 14, breaking the old record of 11.4°C in 1981. A high of 14.3°C the following day was just shy of the record of 14.4°C in 2012. The warmest temperatures occurred along the US border. Morden reached 18.3°C on the 14th and 17.6°C on the 15th, the earliest occurrences of temperature over 16°C on record since 1904. The high of 18.3°C on March 14 broke the old 2012 record by an impressive 7.1°C! Nights were unusually mild as well. A morning low of 6.7⁰C in Winnipeg on March 15 was the warmest morning low for so early in the year since 1953.
The winter snow pack disappeared in Winnipeg by March 15, tied with 1995 for third earliest snow melt since 1955. This was a day later than in 2012 and a day earlier than in 2010.
In the end, March averaged -3.0°C, 2.8°C warmer than normal and the 20th warmest March since 1872. Even thunderstorms with small hail occurred on March 30 west and north of Winnipeg. No thunder was heard in Winnipeg but small hail fell in the south end with some convective showers.
#5 – Active Thunderstorm Season in Southern Manitoba
Manitoba had the greatest number of reported tornadoes and waterspouts in Canada for 2015. In addition, Manitoba had the most severe hail and severe thunderstorm rain reports of the three Prairie provinces.
At least 11 tornadoes and waterspouts occurred in Manitoba in 2015, the most in more than 5 years. Two events brought worldwide attention: at least 2 tornadoes and waterspouts on July 18 near Matlock and at least 3 tornadoes on July 27 in southwestern Manitoba(3 tornadoes were mentioned in Justin Hobson’s chase story).
On July 18, a landspout tornado near Matlock travelled over Lake Winnipeg, becoming a waterspout. The storm produced at least one other waterspout and they occurred simultaneously. The storm and funnels were photogenic and photos spread around the world on social media.
Only a few farms and highways experienced damage. Environment Canada sent a damage survey team to investigate. The worst damage they saw was from a high-end EF-2 tornado (winds close to 200 km/h). It is entirely possible that the tornadoes may have been even stronger, but because they weren’t hitting anything significant it is impossible to tell.
Hail was also a big story this summer across southern Manitoba. The greatest proportion of severe hail reports were in August thanks to extreme nocturnal activity mid and late month. Significant hail events occurred on August 12, 22 and 28.
Along with parts of southern Alberta, southern Manitoba had the greatest concentration of severe thunderstorm warning days as seen in the map below. The Minnedosa warning region of southwestern Manitoba saw 19 days in 2015 with a severe thunderstorm warning, the most of all warning regions in Canada.
#4 – May Long Weekend Storm
A Colorado Low slammed southern Manitoba during the May Long Weekend. Heavy rain, damaging wind, large waves on the lakes and snowfall occurred.
The rain in Winnipeg began late on Saturday May 16 and persisted the entire day on Sunday May 17. 35-50 mm fell in the city. 31.3 mm fell at Winnipeg airport on May 17 alone, breaking the old record of 22.9 mm in 1903 for the day. Heavier rains fell to the southwest with 50-90 mm from Morden to Carman to Melita. Significant overland flooding occurred with many farm fields underwater.
Strong winds ripped the roof off of The Bridge Church in Winnipeg, MB. Photo via @CTVNewsBen.
Large tree snapped by strong winds in Winnipeg at Corydon & Nassau. Photo via @MattCundill.
Photo of a downed tree in Winnipeg, MB. Photo via @mikki_co.
Large tree down in Winnipeg Beach on Spruce Ave. Photo via @SeanLedwich.
A semi-truck blown by strong winds blocking the Trans-Canada Highway into Portage la Prairie. Photo via @ctvwinnipeg.
High waves due to the strong winds associated with this weekend’s Colorado Low in Gimli, MB. Photo via @OlleBear.
The rain was accompanied by sustained winds of 47 to 63 km/h at Winnipeg airport for 22 consecutive hours. Wind gusts were between 80 and 95 km/h. A peak gust of 93 km/h was recorded in Winnipeg. The wind damaged property, caused power outages and uprooted trees. In addition, larges waves and storm surge occurred on Lake Manitoba and Lake Winnipeg.
On Monday May 18, snow and strong wind occurred. Snow fell throughout the night, ending in the morning. The cold and wind combined to produce wind chill values of -9. Between a dusting and 3 cm of snow fell in Winnipeg, depending where you were. 2.5 cm was measured in Charleswood on May 18 alone, just shy of the old record of 3.0 cm in 1963. A snow depth of 2 cm in the morning observation broke the old record of trace cm. The snow melted in the afternoon. This was the latest spring snowfall in Winnipeg since 2002 when a trace cm fell on May 23 and the latest snowfall accumulation since 1969 when 0.3 cm fell on June 12. Prior to this year, snow had fallen on May 18 only 4 times since 1872. Heavier snow fell west of the city with a swath of 10-15 cm from Boissevain to McGregor to Teulon to the Gimli area.
#3 – August 22-23 Severe Thunderstorms and Heavy Rain
Significant thunderstorms and heavy rain pummelled Winnipeg and the surrounding area on August 22 and 23. Due to extreme nature of the event and the large area affected, the event is considered number three in the Top 10 series.
The event began overnight on August 22 when severe thunderstorms developed north of a warm front. The bulk of the storms remained north of Winnipeg, sparing the city from the worst of the event.
The city got a spectacular lightning show, while the cottage-country north of Winnipeg and a few towns northwest of the city took the brunt of the storms. Very large hail fell from Westbourne to Teulon to Matlock to Beaconia to Silver Falls. The largest hail stone reported was 10 cm in diameter, located near Silver Falls. Significant and widespread damage occurred as a result. Locally 40-50 or more mm of rain also fell within an hour, causing overland flooding. The following table gives a chronology of storm reports from the event.
Table: Chronology of storm reports from the overnight thunderstorms of August 22
Approx. Time
Location
Event
2:00 am
Westbourne
Nickel to golf ball size hail.
4:15 am
Teulon
Quarter size hail with significant accumulation. Tree, garden and vehicle damage occurred. 43 mm of rain in 1 hour caused overland flooding. Mounds of hail still remained on the ground hours after the storm.
4:45 am
Matlock
5 cm diameter hail.
5:15 am
Grand Marais
Gold ball size hail.
5:30 am
Beaconia
Baseball size hail punched holes in roofs and totalled almost every vehicle left outside during the storm. 50+ mm of rain also fell within an hour.
5:45 am – 6:00 am
Pine Falls, Powerview and Silver Falls area
Nickel to softball size hail. One photo showed a 10 cm diameter hailstone.
Heavy thunderstorms developed again midday in the Red River Valley. Winnipeg was particularly hard hit by these. 50 mm fell in less than 1 hour in parts of the south end. Nickel to toonie size hail, wind gusts to 80 km/h and frequent lightning also occurred, making for quite a storm to remember. Numerous streets and underpasses flooded and some were impassable. Water seeped into and flooded parts of St Vital Mall. Lightning caused a few fires and wind snapped branches.
Rainfall totals from the August 22-23 storms
The afternoon thunderstorms also dumped some large hail in other areas. Nickel to quarter size hail fell in Oakbank, Winkler and Jessica Lake. Training thunderstorms continued to pummel southeastern Manitoba late afternoon and evening, dumping significant rainfall. Rain from these also spread into the Winnipeg area and Red River Valley. Wrap-around rain around the low pressure system continued to drench south and southeastern Manitoba in the overnight and morning on August 23. Two-day rainfall totals were significant. Widespread totals of 50 to 110 mm occurred throughout the Red River Valley, southeastern Manitoba and the Interlake. In Winnipeg, close to 75 mm fell in southern sections of the city. At Winnipeg airport, about 46 mm fell. 38.4 mm of this fell on August 22 alone, breaking the old record of 38.1 mm in 1959 for the day.
#2 – Warm and Moist Fall
All three fall months (Sep, Oct & Nov) finished in the top 30 warmest on record since 1872 in Winnipeg: September was 6th warmest, October tied 30th warmest and November tied 16th warmest. It was the 4th warmest fall on record since 1872 with an average mean temperature of 7.3°C, tied with 1953 and 2009. Brandon also had a 4th warmest fall on record (since 1890), averaging 6.2°C.
In October, the warmth peaked during the Thanksgiving weekend. Record warmth was seen along the US border with highs near 28°C in Pilot Mound, Morden and Sprague. Winnipeg reached a non-record maximum of 24.6°C on the 11th. Even some weak thunderstorm activity occurred in the evening on the 11th, ahead of a strong low pressure system which produced damaging winds the following day.
A 25-consecutive day streak of above normal temperatures occurred from October 26 to November 19. During this time, 10-consecutive days from October 27 to November 5 never dropped below freezing. Warmth and humidity returned mid November before winter-like conditions arrived. Temperatures exceeded 10°C from the 14th to 16th with a maximum of 13.1°C on the 15th. Unusually high humidity also occurred with dewpoints reaching 9.4°C on the 16th and 9.3°C on the 17th, both record highs and the latest occurrences of dewpoint over 9°C on record since 1953. Thanks to the high humidity, a record high minimum temperature of 5.3°C was achieved on the 16th, the latest minimum above 5.0°C since 1872.
Dewpoint temperatures averaged 3.2°C in fall 2015, t he second most humid fall on record since 1953. November dewpoint temperatures in particular averaged -2.9°C, the highest on record, beating the old record of -3.0°C in 1981.
Thanks to warm conditions, the first accumulative snowfall was on November 18 in Charleswood, Winnipeg’s official station for snowfall. This was the 4th latest first snowfall accumulation of the season since 1872. It was also a month later than the normal of October 18. In addition, no snowfall was recorded in October, only the 16th time this has occurred since 1872.
#1 – Amazingly Warm Start to December
Remarkable warmth started December across southern Manitoba. 8 to 10 days in the first half of the month exceeded the freezing mark in Winnipeg, above the normal of 4 days for the month. 14-consecutive days from the 3rd to 16th never dropped below -9°C at Winnipeg airport, amazing when you consider this was close to the normal high. Temperatures reached 7°C downtown and 4°C at the airport on the 3rd, one of the warmest days of the month. The only record broken during the warm spell was on December 9 when a high of 5.6°C at the airport broke the old record of 5.1°C in 1990.
December started with such warmth that the grass still needed to be cut in Morden, MB.
The warmth was most impressive where there was no snow cover. 3 to 7 cm of snow was leftover from November in the Winnipeg area and this limited temperature. Areas without snow cover southwest of the city and in southwestern Manitoba were much warmer. Many locations reached double digits and in some cases more than once. In Morden, four days exceeded 10°C, three of which were record highs. The high of 14.2°C on December 4 was the third warmest on record in December since 1904. Some thermometers reportedly reached 15°C, more typical of late September or early October. No snow was on the ground at the time. A similar milestone was reached in Brandon with a high of 11.1°C on the 4th, the third warmest temperature in December since 1890.
The first half of December (December 1 to 15) averaged -3.0°C at Winnipeg airport, the second warmest first half of December on record since 1872. The warmest was in 1913 with an average of -2.1°C. The month as a whole averaged -8.1°C, tied with 2011 for 9th warmest December since 1872.
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