We’ll see some shower activity today as a frontal zone remains stalled through southern Manitoba. Conditions will improve rapidly by Tuesday however, as sunny skies return.
A frontal zone in southern Manitoba will bring some rain showers to the region on Monday
Monday
We will receive some light rain today as a frontal zone is draped through southern Manitoba. Rainfall accumulations will be small in general, not amounting to more than a few millimetres in most cases. Despite the rain, temperatures will climb into the low teens under mainly cloudy skies and light winds.
Tuesday
Tuesday looks to be a beautiful day as temperatures climb into the mid to upper teens under mainly sunny skies. Winds will remain as we sit under a surface high, making for very nice conditions!
Wednesday
Wednesday looks to be even nicer than Tuesday, as temperatures climb into the low twenties under mainly sunny skies. Winds will be a bit stronger than on Tuesday, but not by a lot. An approaching low pressure system will be responsible for pumping these increasingly warm temperatures into Manitoba.
Long Range
Weather models suggest we’ll continue to see above-seasonal temperatures for the remainder of the week. Further out into the long-range the forecast is a bit uncertain, so I won’t delve into that right now. Get out and enjoy what should be a great week (aside from Monday)!
The unseasonably warm weather that’s been in place over Southern Manitoba will remain for a couple more days before a big shift in the weather pattern behind a low pressure system passing through on Sunday that will bring cooler air back to the region for next week. The shift in conditions will be quite a shock to the system after a pleasant stretch of above-normal temperatures looks to be replaced with the potential of a return to…snowier conditions.
Today will be a fairly pleasant day in the Winnipeg area. On Wednesday we had mentioned the possibility that today might be another very windy day but, thankfully, it looks like the system that guidance suggested would be a bit of a trouble-maker has ended up weaker and further north than it appeared earlier in the week. As such, we’ll see slightly warmer temperatures with a high near 18°C with somewhat breezy northwesterlies developing to around 30 gusting 50km/h. Tonight will bring mainly clear skies and a low near 3°C with light winds.
Saturday is looking like another beautiful day as warm air surges northwards ahead of Sunday’s low pressure system. Winds will be a bit breezy out of the south to southeast at around 20–30km/h in the morning but will likely taper off a bit into the afternoon, making for an exceptionally pleasant sunny afternoon with a high near 20°C and fairly calm winds. Unfortunately, it’s all downhill from there. Cloud will move in on Saturday evening and through the overnight period as a low pressure system pushes northwards out of the Central Plains of the United States. Expect a low near 6°C.
Sunday Brings Showers & Transition to Cooler Weather
Forecast 1000–500mb Thickness Sunday into Monday
Sunday will mark the transition into a cooler air mass as a fairly complex pattern change gets underway. The weather will be dominated by two primary features: a low pressure system lifting north-northeast out of the Northern Plains of the US and a shortwave moving into Manitoba from Saskatchewan. The two systems will undergo a complex merging and look to stall out a bit over Northern Ontario. This stalling out will resulting in an amplification of the long-wave trough developing over the region resulting in a plunge of colder air southwards over the Eastern Prairies. This is reflected very nicely in the above graphic which shows the forecast 1000–500mb thicknesses[1] plunging behind the low pressure system.
So what does that mean for Sunday? Well, there’s a bit of ambiguity as to what will happen here in Winnipeg as a lot will depend on the exact timing of and how the two systems merge. We’ll definitely see cloudy skies, likely see a very good chance of showers through the day. Precipitation will fall as rain for most of the day, but likely switch over to snow sometime in the early evening. Snowfall amounts won’t be big, however a couple cm are certainly possible.
The high on Sunday will be near 10°C with a slight northwesterly breeze. Temperatures will drop just below freezing on Sunday night. Rainfall totals of 5–10mm are possible with 2–3cm of snow possible on Sunday night.
Long Range
Heading into Monday, it looks like the Red River Vally will see flurries, highs near the freezing mark and blustery northwest winds. After that, the rest of the week looks fairly quiet with little in the way of precipitation expected. Daytime highs through much of the week will be more than 5°C below the seasonal values of 11–12°C.
The 1000–500mb thickness is the distance, or thickness, between the 1000mb level (near-surface) and 500mb level (averages around 18,000ft and is often considered the steering flow for weather systems). Higher thickness values correlate to warmer temperatures and lower thicknesses correlate to colder temperatures. ↩
Dry weather is increasingly becoming the predominant weather story for our region as an extended period of little-to-no precipitation develops. Through March, the Winnipeg airport reported only 13.8mm of precipitation, barely over half of the normal of 24.5mm[1]. So far, half-way through April, we’ve seen just 2.0mm of precipitation, well off the pace of the normal of 30.0mm. This is all in addition to coming off the 9th driest meteorological winter on record. The dry weather has led to a fatality due to a brush fire in the RM of Rhineland, a fire that temporarily closed rail lines in Winnipeg near the Perimeter Highway and Wilkes Ave.[2] and the cancellation of Manitoba burning permits.
The problems are even worse south of the border, though, with some areas in North Dakota seeing record dryness. On Monday, the NWS Grand Forks office tweeted a new record for Grand Forks:
Since October 1, 2014, the NWS in Grand Forks has 1.89 inches of precipitation. Ranking as the #1 driest ever during this stretch. #dry
They followed it up by also mentioning that Fargo has seen it’s 3rd driest October-April stretch. The dry weather has created an excessive fire hazard in the region and has resulted in numerous “Red Flag” warnings.[3]
Unfortunately, little relief is in sight. The warm, windy weather will continue over the coming days with no significant precipitation.
Today will be another very warm day; our forecast high of 22°C is over 10°C above normal for this time of year. The warmth will come along side very strong southerly winds, though, with sustained winds strengthening to 50–60km/h and gusts possibly as high as 90km/h. Environment Canada issued a wind warning at 11:51PM last night anticipating the strong winds. Winds will remain strong into the evening before diminishing overnight. There will be some cloud moving in overnight associated with a cold front moving through as the temperature drops to around 6°C. There’s a very slight chance of a few sprinkles overnight into early Thursday morning, but at this point it looks like any amounts, if they were to occur, would be insignificant.
Thursday will be a relatively quiet day. Temperatures will remain mild with highs near 16°C, but the more notable aspect of the day will be the calm winds thanks to a ridge of high pressure over the region. Expect cloud to move in on Thursday evening as we drop to a low near 6°C again.
The GDPS shows Winnipeg on the edge of an area of accumulating showers on Friday.
Friday’s main weather story will be a low pressure system slumping through Southern Manitoba. It will bring an area of showers with it, however at this point general model consensus is that Winnipeg will likely see a few sprinkles, but the accumulating rainfall of a few mm will remain further north in the Interlake. As the system passes, a cold front will sweep through the Red River Valley and usher in strong northwest winds to around 40 gusting 60km/h. The temperature will climb to near 14°C under more cloud than sun. Skies will clear and winds diminish heading into the evening as the temperature heads to a low of about 3 or 4°C.
Long Range
In general, the weather continues to look warm and fairly dry. No significant precipitation is expected in the next 10 days across the Southern Prairies and Northern Plains. Any chances for rain in the 4–10 day period look pretty uncertain at best as different models are tracking fairly divergent solutions. The warm weather looks to stick around until next week before some cooler weather may begin moving in.
Warm weather will continue this week as temperatures remain well above seasonal values.
Mild weather will continue in southern Manitoba on Monday
The Week Ahead
Monday
Today will be mild, but breezy. High temperatures will sit in the low teens with a gusty west wind. Skies should remain mainly sunny, making for a generally nice day.
Tuesday
A developing low pressure system to our west will give us south-easterly winds for Tuesday. This southerly flow will also draw up some warmer air, pushing high temperatures into the upper teens. Skies are expected to be a mix of sun and cloud as an upper disturbance passes through the region.
Wedensday
Wednesday looks to be the warmest day of the week as high temperatures climb into the 20s once again. These warm temperatures will be the result of a stiff southerly flow ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Skies are expected to be mainly sunny, but with a gusty south wind.
Long Range
The long range forecast continues to look warm. However, a cold front will pass through southern Manitoba late on Wednesday, ushering in slightly cooler conditions for Thursday. Medium-range models suggest that above-normal weather will stick around until at least the beginning of the weekend, which will mean high temperatures remaining well into the teens. Further out in the long range it appears another cold front may pass through later on the weekend, which may cool us down temporarily, but it’s too soon to say for sure.
