Tag: Above-Normal Temperatures

The Melt Begins

Scott Leave a comment

The spring snow melt will begin in earnest this week as temperatures soar to above-seasonal values.

Monday will be above-seasonal as a mild westerly flow moves across the Prairies
Monday will be above-seasonal as a mild westerly flow moves across the Prairies

Monday

Monday
5°C / -2°C
Mix of sun and cloud

Today will be well above-seasonal with high temperatures reaching into the mid single digits. We’ll see skies that are a mixture of sun and cloud as some mid and upper cloud streams through from the north-west. Since there will be a lot of snow melting, some fog patches may develop overnight due to the increase in moisture. It will most certainly be another bad day if you happen to be made of ice!

Tuesday

Tuesday
4°C / 0°C
Mainly sunny

Tuesday will see similar conditions to Monday. Temperatures will once again be in the mid single digits with a westerly wind. Skies should be mainly sunny making for yet another beautiful day.

Wednesday

Wednesday
3°C / 0°C
Mainly cloudy

Some clouds will roll in for Wednesday, but temperatures will remain mild. Highs should be in the low to mid single digits under mainly cloudy conditions. We may even see a light rain or snow shower, but accumulations will be minimal. Wednesday will be a gloomier day, but warm nonetheless.

Long Range

The long range forecast continues to look very good. Models suggest that we will see above-seasonal temperatures stick around until at least mid-March. Given the warm weather expected this week, it’s likely that most of our snow will disappear quite quickly. Once the snow is gone the ground will be less reflective, allowing more sunlight to be absorbed, giving us systematically warmer temperatures. Sounds pretty good, doesn’t it!

Mild & Cloudy Weather Ahead

Brad Leave a comment

The warmer weather has finally made its way to Manitoba with temperatures expected to climb well above normal today. The surge of warmth is thanks to a weak low pressure system pushing through the Interlake today which also bring some light snow to Southern Manitoba today. Above-normal temperatures will persist through the remainder of the week in what will be a very pleasant mid-January break from the cold.

Wednesday

-3°C / -8°C
Snow beginning this morning.

Thursday

-5°C / -18°C
Mixed skies with a chance of flurries.

Friday

-5°C / -8°C
Mainly cloudy, light snow likely

Today’s weather will be driven by a low pressure system tracking through the Interlake region. Light snow will spread eastwards across Southern Manitoba through the morning period with most areas seeing the snow taper off by mid-afternoon. Generally, a couple cm of snow is expected, however slightly higher amounts of 3–4cm may fall through the Interlake. Winds will be gusty out of the south at 30–40km/h until the evening when the winds will diminish and shift to the southwest. Expect a high near –3 or –2°C today.

This 12hr. precipitation totals panel from the RDPS shows 1-2.5mm of precipitation over Manitoba today, equivalent to anywhere from 1 - 3cm of snow.
This 12hr. precipitation totals panel from the RDPS shows 1–2.5mm of precipitation over Manitoba today, equivalent to anywhere from 1 – 3cm of snow.

The clouds may break up a bit overnight, however it should remain on the mostly cloudy side. Our low temperature will fall to around –8°C.

Thursday will bring mixed skies and a slight chance of flurries as a weak frontal boundary works through the Red River Valley. Highs will sit near –5°. Skies should clear out on Thursday night, allowing temperatures to drop significantly to around –18°C for a low.

More cloud returns on Friday as another low pressure system works into the province. Not much snow is expected with it, but light snow over much of Southern Manitoba looks likely. Highs will climb to around –5°C with lows on Friday night at around –8°C.

The milder, somewhat cloudy weather is expected to persist through the weekend before returning to more seasonal values[1] for next week.

  1. Normal daytime highs are around –13°C for this time of year in Winnipeg.  ↩

Staying Warm Until Christmas

Scott Leave a comment

Warm weather will stick around until Christmas, a nice break for the holidays.

Mild conditions are expected in southern Manitoba on Monday
Mild conditions are expected in southern Manitoba on Monday

Monday

Monday
0°C / -4°C
Light snow

Today will be very mild, but with some snow. A low pressure system off to the south will generate some light snow in southern Manitoba during the day, with accumulations of generally around 2cm expected. Given the mild temperatures, most snow should melt quickly off treated roads, making for mostly wet, as opposed to slippery, conditions.

Tuesday

Tuesday
-1°C / -8°C
Light snow

More light snow is expected on Tuesday as the system to the south remains in place. Accumulations of around 2cm will once again be possible. Temperatures will remain mild though, making for a decent day.

Wednesday

Wednesday
-3°C / -10°C
Mainly cloudy with chance of flurries

A slight chance of flurries will linger on Wednesday, but any additional accumulations should be small. A breezy south wind will develop, keeping temperatures mild.

Long Range

Conditions should remain mild until Christmas, but after that a major pattern change is coming. Models suggest that our first major arctic blast in several weeks will move in on Boxing Day. That might have many folks doing their post-Christmas shopping online, as opposed to venturing out into an unfamiliar chill.

The NAEFS is predicting below-normal temperatures in the 8-14 day time period.
The NAEFS is predicting below-normal temperatures in the 8-14 day time period.

More Mild Weather

Brad Leave a comment

Another spell of above-normal temperatures are on the way to the Red River Valley this weekend with daytime highs possibly reaching above freezing by the beginning of next week. Closer to Christmas, temperatures will return to seasonal values before cooler air slumps southward for the end of December.

Friday
-6°C / -9°C
Cloudy with periods of light snow
Saturday
-4°C / -7°C
Cloudy
Sunday
-2°C / -4°C
Mixed skies with a chance of flurries

Today marks the beginning of the warmup as cloud ahead of an approaching warm front blankets the province almost entirely. Here in the Red River Valley, light snow will likely be fairly widespread thanks to favourable temperature profiles throughout the lower levels of the atmosphere. As is typical in these situations, don’t expect any real accumulation. Temperatures will climb to an above-seasonal –6°C or so with light winds. Temperatures dip down to around –9°C tonight with mainly cloudy skies.

Saturday will be another cloudy day with temperatures climbing to around –4°C under mainly cloudy skies. The main difference will be that light snow won’t be nearly as likely, although a few isolated flurries are possible. Winds remain light and temperatures dip to around –7°C on Saturday night under cloudy skies.

Sunday will start…you guessed it, mainly cloudy once again with temperatures beginning to edge even warmer; the daytime high on Sunday will likely be around –2°C. The cloud may begin to scatter out in the afternoon providing a brief reprieve from the cloudy skies.

Some flurries are once again possible, however any real threat for snow will hold off until the overnight hours where a low pressure system passing to our south will potentially bring a band of snow across the Red River Valley with a couple of cm accumulation.

Snowy(-ish) Return to Winter

Looking ahead to next week, the weather pattern will be dominated by a large low pressure system developing over the eastern half of the United States & Canada. The Red River Valley will be positioned on the back-side of the strengthening low, locking us into northerly winds that will begin pulling Arctic air southwards through the Prairies.

The GFS 850mb temperature forecast valid on Christmas eve shows a trough of cold air plunging southeastwards behind a strongly tilted, major storm system centered over Ontario.
The GFS 850mb temperature forecast valid on Christmas eve shows a trough of cold air plunging southeastwards behind a strongly tilted, major storm system centered over Ontario.

With the cooler air plunging southwards, daytime highs will cool off to the mid-minus teens for the second half of the week. Snowfall is a little uncertain at this point for us, but it doesn’t look like much will be seen here, making for a cool and blustery, but not particularly stormy, Christmas. It is worth noting that this storm system will have dramatic impacts on the eastern half of the country, including Toronto & Montreal, so if you have travel plans for the holidays that involve flying in that direction, be prepared for potential delays.