Tag: Above-Normal Temperatures

Fire crews were kept busy with a grass fire near the west perimeter Monday evening.

Dry & Mild Weather Continues

Brad 1 Comment

Dry weather is increasingly becoming the predominant weather story for our region as an extended period of little-to-no precipitation develops. Through March, the Winnipeg airport reported only 13.8mm of precipitation, barely over half of the normal of 24.5mm[1]. So far, half-way through April, we’ve seen just 2.0mm of precipitation, well off the pace of the normal of 30.0mm. This is all in addition to coming off the 9th driest meteorological winter on record. The dry weather has led to a fatality due to a brush fire in the RM of Rhineland, a fire that temporarily closed rail lines in Winnipeg near the Perimeter Highway and Wilkes Ave.[2] and the cancellation of Manitoba burning permits.

The problems are even worse south of the border, though, with some areas in North Dakota seeing record dryness. On Monday, the NWS Grand Forks office tweeted a new record for Grand Forks:

They followed it up by also mentioning that Fargo has seen it’s 3rd driest October-April stretch. The dry weather has created an excessive fire hazard in the region and has resulted in numerous “Red Flag” warnings.[3]

Unfortunately, little relief is in sight. The warm, windy weather will continue over the coming days with no significant precipitation.

Today will be another very warm day; our forecast high of 22°C is over 10°C above normal for this time of year. The warmth will come along side very strong southerly winds, though, with sustained winds strengthening to 50–60km/h and gusts possibly as high as 90km/h. Environment Canada issued a wind warning at 11:51PM last night anticipating the strong winds. Winds will remain strong into the evening before diminishing overnight. There will be some cloud moving in overnight associated with a cold front moving through as the temperature drops to around 6°C. There’s a very slight chance of a few sprinkles overnight into early Thursday morning, but at this point it looks like any amounts, if they were to occur, would be insignificant.

Thursday will be a relatively quiet day. Temperatures will remain mild with highs near 16°C, but the more notable aspect of the day will be the calm winds thanks to a ridge of high pressure over the region. Expect cloud to move in on Thursday evening as we drop to a low near 6°C again.

GPDS 12hr. QPF valid 00Z April 18th, 2015
The GDPS shows Winnipeg on the edge of an area of accumulating showers on Friday.

Friday’s main weather story will be a low pressure system slumping through Southern Manitoba. It will bring an area of showers with it, however at this point general model consensus is that Winnipeg will likely see a few sprinkles, but the accumulating rainfall of a few mm will remain further north in the Interlake. As the system passes, a cold front will sweep through the Red River Valley and usher in strong northwest winds to around 40 gusting 60km/h. The temperature will climb to near 14°C under more cloud than sun. Skies will clear and winds diminish heading into the evening as the temperature heads to a low of about 3 or 4°C.

Long Range

In general, the weather continues to look warm and fairly dry. No significant precipitation is expected in the next 10 days across the Southern Prairies and Northern Plains. Any chances for rain in the 4–10 day period look pretty uncertain at best as different models are tracking fairly divergent solutions. The warm weather looks to stick around until next week before some cooler weather may begin moving in.

  1. Based on the 1981 – 2010 climate normals.  ↩
  2. Pictured above; credit to Christopher Stanton / Global News.  ↩
  3. Red flag warnings are issued when weather conditions combine with dry hydrological conditions to present an extreme fire hazard.  ↩

Warm Weather Continues

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Warm weather will continue this week as temperatures remain well above seasonal values.

Mild weather will continue in southern Manitoba on Monday
Mild weather will continue in southern Manitoba on Monday

The Week Ahead

Monday

Today will be mild, but breezy. High temperatures will sit in the low teens with a gusty west wind. Skies should remain mainly sunny, making for a generally nice day.

Tuesday

A developing low pressure system to our west will give us south-easterly winds for Tuesday. This southerly flow will also draw up some warmer air, pushing high temperatures into the upper teens. Skies are expected to be a mix of sun and cloud as an upper disturbance passes through the region.

Wedensday

Wednesday looks to be the warmest day of the week as high temperatures climb into the 20s once again. These warm temperatures will be the result of a stiff southerly flow ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Skies are expected to be mainly sunny, but with a gusty south wind.

Long Range

The long range forecast continues to look warm. However, a cold front will pass through southern Manitoba late on Wednesday, ushering in slightly cooler conditions for Thursday. Medium-range models suggest that above-normal weather will stick around until at least the beginning of the weekend, which will mean high temperatures remaining well into the teens. Further out in the long range it appears another cold front may pass through later on the weekend, which may cool us down temporarily, but it’s too soon to say for sure.

Wednesday? Beautiful, No Foolin’! Thursday? Not So Much…

Brad Leave a comment

Some of the warmest weather so far this year will move into the region today, drawn eastwards by a fairly strong spring storm moving through the Central Prairies. The warmth is not meant to last, though, as a strong cold front pushes through and brings below-normal temperatures for the remainder of the week.

Wednesday
16°C / 2°C
Windy with sunny breaks this afternoon

Thursday
⇓ -2°C / -12°C
Cloudy & windy; chance of showers or flurries

Friday
0°C / -8°C
Mainly sunny & cool

Today will be quite a warm day thanks to very mild air over our region; 925mb temperatures are expected to climb to around 9°C, which should translate to daytime highs near 15 or 16°C once we sunshine this afternoon. Speaking of sunshine, while today is starting off cloudy, we should the cloud cover break up this afternoon as the dry slot associated with the Central Prairie low moves across Southern Manitoba. Alongside the sunshine and clearing will be fairly gusty westerly winds to 30–40km/h with gusts as high as 60km/h. The winds will taper off in the evening as we head to an overnight low of around +2°C.

RPDS 3hr. QPF & MSLP valid Thursday, April 2, 2015
The RPDS shows an area of light precipitation moving through the Red River Valley on Thursday with a relatively tight pressure gradient that will produce gusty northerly winds.

Thursday will be a significantly less pleasant day as a cold front pushes through Southern Manitoba, bringing with it cooler temperatures, gusty northerly winds and a fairly good chance for some shower or flurry activity. Temperatures in Winnipeg will slide through the morning, settling near –1 or –2°C for much of the afternoon as gusty northerly winds to around 40km/h tap cooler air from the north. The best chance for any shower or flurry activity would be through the morning & early afternoon. Skies will clear out Thursday evening as we head to a low near –12°C.

Friday will be a benign weather day for Winnipeg & the Red River Valley, but temperatures will be well below normal. Daytime highs will only be around +1 or +2°C through the Red River Valley, which is a few degrees below normal for this time of year. Fortunately, winds will be light and with that increasingly strong April sun shining, it won’t feel so bad. Expect temperatures to drop to around –8°C on Friday night with partly cloudy skies.

Quiet Weekend Ahead

The weekend is looking fairly quiet for Winnipeg with seasonal to slightly below-seasonal temperatures and a few clouds. A ridge of high pressure building in from the Arctic looks to keep most disturbances to the south of Winnipeg, however with the main frontal zone setting up near the U.S. border and a few shortwaves rippling along, areas along the U.S. border in Southern Manitoba may see a few showers or flurries through the weekend. Nothing significant is expected.

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Outlook (issued 12Z March 31, 2015)
The NAEFS 8-14 day temperature anomaly forecast show above-seasonal warmth returning to Manitoba.

In the longer range, it looks fairly likely that we’ll see a return to above normal temperatures through the second week of April as the storm track shifts back further north; while above normal temperatures will return, it looks like much of the warm weather will be associated with weather disturbances, making it likely that we’ll see more of a “roller coaster” temperature pattern than a prolonged period of warm, dry weather. Only time will tell, though! For now, expect a few cool days and then a stretch of near-seasonal temperatures.

Shot of Cold Air Incoming

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The mild, dry weather we’ve experienced over the past week and a half continues for a couple more days before a powerful cold front sweeps through Southern Manitoba on Thursday night, bringing much colder temperatures to the region. Fortunately, the cool-down is expected to be short-lived with temperatures returning to seasonal values by the end of the weekend.

Wednesday
7°C / -3°C
Mainly sunny

Thursday
8°C / -8°C
Partly cloudy

Friday
-4°C / -15°C
Mainly sunny & breezy

Today will be another beautiful day with a high near 7 or 8°C, light winds and just a bit of cloudiness. Temperatures will drop to around –3°C tonight with light southerlies and mainly clear skies. Tomorrow looks quite nice as well with partly cloudy skies and a high near 8°C. Unfortunately, a big change is swinging through on Thursday night.

A potent cold front will swing through Winnipeg & the Red River Valley overnight Thursday, bringing with it a chance for some flurries and much cooler air. Winds won’t be too bad through Thursday night, perhaps to around 20km/h or so. Expect a low somewhere in the –8 to –10°C range.

Much cooler weather will persist through Friday and Saturday. Friday will be quite an unpleasant day as northerlies strengthen through the day to around 30–40km/h by late afternoon. The temperature will only climb to around –4°C for a high which will make it the coldest day since March 6th when the mercury topped out at +0.8°C. Temperatures will plummet into the mid-minus teens on Friday night as those strong northerlies really tap into the colder Arctic air plunging southwards.

Cool, Dry Weekend Ahead

This coming weekend will be dry and generally cool as a ridge of Arctic high pressure dominates the weather over the Red River Valley. Saturday will see highs near –6°C or so while the high on Sunday manages to climb back up towards the 0°C mark.

Record Snow Pack Loss

As of Sunday (March 15th, 2015), Winnipeg’s snow pack officially fell to 0cm. This was thanks to a dramatic melt that took much of Southern Manitoba from snow-covered to bare ground in just a few days thanks to a surge of record-setting warm air.[1]

MODIS imagery revealing significant snow pack melt in Southern Manitoba
MODIS satellite imagery reveals the dramatic melting of the snow pack over much of Southern Manitoba in under a week.

A snow depth of 0cm on March 15th ties for the 3rd earliest snow melt on record since 1955, trailing 2012 by just one day:

Top 11 Earliest Snow Melts (1955 – Present)
Rank Date of 0cm Snow Depth Year(s)
1 February 28 2000
2 March 14 2012
3 March 15 1995, 2015
5 March 17 1981
6 March 18 1973, 2010
8 March 21 1994, 1999
10 March 26 1961, 1984

The early melt was icing on the cake for Winnipeggers wary of a repeat of the never-ending winter of 2013/14. The winter of 2014/15 was effectively 4 months long – from mid-November to mid-March – of which 2 months of it was unseasonably mild. Not bad at all.

  1. On Saturday March 14th, 9 communities in Manitoba set record highs: Winnipeg, Portage la Prairie, Gretna, Dauphin, Brandon, Melita, Pilot Mound, Pinawa, and Sprague.  ↩