Tag: Above-Normal Temperatures

Unsettled Pattern Continues

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Residents in the Red River Valley have barely had time to get the shovels out after Wednesday’s snowfall and Thursday’s blowing snow/blizzard, but more snow and wind is on the way as another system tracks through today. The unsettled weather will continue through the weekend with a brief improvement on Saturday followed by more unsettled weather on Sunday.

Friday
-8°C / -10°C
Increasing cloud in the afternoon then snow. 4-8cm accumulation.

Saturday
-7°C / -9°C
A mix of sun and cloud. Blowing snow in the morning. Chance of flurries.

Sunday
-5°C / -20°C
Light snow developing through the day.

Another Shot of Snow Tonight

More snow is on the way later today through tonight as another low pressure system dives southeastwards through the province. Before that, though, we’ll see mainly sunny skies with relatively light winds out of the south at only around 20-30km/h by the afternoon. The temperature should climb up to around -8°C in Winnipeg while areas closer to the U.S. border may see the temperature get as high as -5°C or so.

Expected storm-total snowfall amounts by Saturday morning.
Expected storm-total snowfall amounts by Saturday morning.

Cloud and snow will stream in fairly quickly from the northwest later this afternoon as the low pressure system begins slumping southwards through the Interlake. The heaviest snowfall will fall before midnight with lighter flurries persisting thereafter into the early morning. The snow will taper off by tomorrow morning with totals generally between 4-8cm through Winnipeg & most of the Red River Valley.

Blizzard conditions may develop in the southwestern Red River Valley thanks to the funnelling effect of the western escarpment.

Winds won’t be as strong as Wednesday through the snowfall event – around 30km/h gusting to 50 or so in Winnipeg and the eastern Red River Valley and a little bit stronger in the western Red River Valley at around 40 gusting 60km/h. There will be some blowing snow through the overnight period, but I don’t think we’ll see anything as extensive as on Wednesday night into Thursday. The one caveat may be the southwestern Red River Valley[1] where blizzard conditions may develop thanks to a funnelling effect of the western escarpment. Winds may climb up to 50 gusting 70km/h which should be enough to produce a widespread white-out. The strong winds will move in overnight and taper off midday tomorrow.

Nice Start to Weekend, Snowy End

Skies will clear out early Saturday morning with any blowing snow hanging on a little longer until the winds die down. Otherwise we’ll see mixed skies with a high near -7°C with fairly light winds. There will be a slight chance of a flurry or two, but no accumulations are expected.

We’ll drop to an overnight low of just -9°C[2] as more cloud cover begins working it’s way in ahead of another disturbance on it’s way. There will be a continued chance for some isolated flurries overnight.

Sunday will be a mainly cloudy day with snow developing through the afternoon. We’ll climb up to a high of around -5°C. The snow will taper off through the evening on Sunday with some breezy northerly winds producing some blowing snow through the Red River Valley. At this point it doesn’t look too bad, fortunately. Skies will clear Sunday night and we’ll drop to an overnight low of around -20°C.

We’ll continue on an unsettled track through next week as very cold Arctic air begins pushing it’s way back into the region. It seems like we’ll be seeing overnight lows near -30 to -35°C in the latter half of the week, so enjoy the upcoming mild weather!

  1. Areas near Carman, Altona, Winkler, Morden, and Emerson are most likely.  ↩
  2. An overnight low that’s warmer than our normal daytime high for January 17th!  ↩

Mild Weekend Welcome, But A Mixed Bag Otherwise

Brad Leave a comment

Temperatures over the next few days will be positively balmy for early January in Winnipeg as daytime highs near -5°C over the next few days keep us well over the normal high of around -13°C for this time of year. The warm temperatures are a welcome reprieve from the bitter cold that has gripped the province over the last month, but the other aspects of the weather will be a bit of a mixed bag over the next few days as multiple low pressure systems move through the region.

Friday
-5°C / -15°C
Cloudy with flurries beginning midday. Clearing overnight.
Saturday
-7°C / -12°C
Mixed skies and a bit cooler.
Sunday
-3°C / -15°C
Mixed skies with a chance of flurries in the morning and evening.

Today will be a pleasant day with fairly light winds and a high of around -5°C. Skies will remain cloudy through the day and we’ll likely see some scattered flurries develop through the Red River Valley midday as a very weak low pressure system pushes through. This evening will see any remaining flurries push off to our east with clouds scattering out overnight as we drop to a low of around -15°C.

Saturday will be a slightly cooler, thanks to a weak ridge passing over the Red River Valley, but nice day with a mixed sky and a high near -7°. We’ll drop only to around -12°C Saturday night as a warm front moves through the area associated with an incoming clipper system from Alberta. A band of light snow should push through the Red River Valley overnight into early Sunday morning with no real significant accumulations other than perhaps a couple centimetres here or there; the bulk of the snowfall will remain in the Interlake where around 2-5cm of snow is expected. Perhaps the bigger impact of the system will be the strong winds that move into the region on Saturday night; we’ll see them increase out of the south to 40 gusting 60km/h which will likely produce some blowing snow on highways throughout the Red River Valley.

After things clear out on Sunday morning we’ll actually be in for quite a nice day with a high near -3°C. Skies will be mixed for much of the day before more cloud moves into the area in the evening hours as a cold front slumps southwards towards the Red River Valley. The chance for some light flurry activity will re-emerge on Sunday evening with the passage of the cold front but as with the rest of the features this weekend, no significant amounts are expected.

Warmer weather is expected to continue through much of next week. A storm system is currently forecast to move through on Wednesday night, which could bring blizzard conditions to the Red River Valley thanks to very strong northwesterly winds, will likely bring cooler weather for the week’s end. We’re no longer in a relatively static upper-level pattern, though, so the cold air will continue trundling off to the east fairly quickly instead of sitting around here for a prolonged period.

More Mild Weather Ahead

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Southern Manitoba will see seasonably warm temperatures today as mild air streams into the region aloft.
Southern Manitoba will see seasonably warm temperatures today as mild air streams into the region aloft.

The Red River Valley will bask once again in above-normal temperatures as another shot of warm air pushes up from the south. We’ll have mixed skies and a somewhat stiff southerly wind accompanying the warmer temperatures, but it should still be fairly pleasant for mid-November nonetheless.

Today

Friday

7°C / -1°C
A mixed sky; mild and windy.

We’ll see mixed skies develop today with some patchy fog throughout the Red River Valley this morning which means, especially when combined with some ice on the roads, drivers – especially highway driving – should take care if travelling through the earlier hours of the morning. Winds will increase to 30–50km/h out of the south by midday as the warmer air pushes in. Temperatures will climb to around 6–7°C, perhaps a degree higher if the clouds break up sooner than later, for a daytime high some 10°C above normal! More cloud will roll in tonight as another disturbance begins pushing into Central Manitoba. A band of snow will set up through the Parkland region eastwards through the northern Interlake, but here in the Red River Valley we’ll just see increasing cloud through the night as we drop to a low of only around –1°C.

The Weekend

Saturday

4°C / -3°C
Cloudy & mild.

Saturday will bring more mild weather despite having mostly cloudy skies through the day. Precipitation is unlikely for us; at this point it appears that everything or to our east. If the entire setup ends up a little further west, we might see a very slight risk of a shower, but as I said, I think that’s quite unlikely. Other than that, Saturday will be quite an uneventful day here in Winnipeg. Winds will be light as we sit in the middle of a large surface trough stationed over the area.

Sunday

↘ -5°C / -12°C
A mix of sun and cloud.

Sunday will see cooler air to our NW finally pushing back into the region. Our temperature will drop to near –5°C through the morning hours and then remain there for the rest of the day. Sunday night will see the true return of the Arctic air as temperatures dip all the way into the minus teens. Winds will be out of the northwest at 20–30km/h. No precipitation is expected. Or is it?

12hr. Precipitation accumulations from the NAM heading into Sunday morning.
12hr. Precipitation accumulations from the NAM heading into Sunday morning.

While most models are pushing the system that will be in the area the next few days off to our east as it intensifies on Sunday, the NAM has hinted at it not pushing off quite so quickly. In one of its solution, the system intensifies further west, developing an area of heavy snow right on top of the Red River Valley. If this solution panned out, that would mean easily 10–20cm of snow by the end of Sunday. At this point, though, I don’t quite have enough faith in the NAM to say it’s likely. There’s overwhelming consensus throughout every other Canadian and European model that things will move off to the east, to the point where this solution of the NAM can’t be looked at as anything more than an anomaly.

Sometimes these interesting little anomalies end up being the right answer though, so we’ll definitely be keeping an eye on things and providing updates if things trend towards a snowier solution on Sunday.

One Warm Day Before Flurries

Brad Leave a comment

Southern Manitoba will bask in temperatures well above-normal today before a cold front slumping southwards across the Prairies pushes through on Thursday, bringing seasonal weather back to the region.

Wednesday

9°C / -2°C
Warm and windy under a mixed sky.
Thursday

0°C / -6°C
Cloudy with flurries.
Friday

5°C / -4°C
Warming up with under a mixed sky.

Today

We’ll see a beautiful – albeit windy – day today as warm air washes over the Red River Valley. We’ll see winds out of the west at 30–50km/h as our temperature soars almost a whole 10°C above normal for this time of year to a daytime high of 8 or 9°C. We’ll see a mixed sky, but no precipitation is expected and this will almost certainly be the warmest temperatures in the area for the next long while.

Thursday

Our warm weather will be relatively short-lived, however, as a cold front dipping southwards across the Prairies pushes through on Thursday morning. With it’s passage, we’ll see much cooler daytime highs of only around 0°C under cloudy skies. The wind will be out of the northwest at 20–40km/h. We’ll also see flurries through the day, but no accumulations are expected. The flurries will taper off overnight as we drop to around –6°C.

Friday

Friday will see the return of warmer air as a rapidly deepening low pressure system north of 60 draws warmer air northwards over the Eastern Prairies. We’ll see our temperature here in Winnipeg climb to around 5°C with south/southwesterly winds developing through the day to 20–40km/h.

All in all not a bad few days to have in mid-November. We may see our first significant accumulating snow this weekend if a complex of low pressure systems align properly, but at this point there’s far too much uncertainty to say that much of a risk yet. We’ll see how things develop through the week and report back on Friday!