Tag: Above-Normal Temperatures

Hot Weather Continues

Brad Leave a comment

The hot weather in place over the Red River Valley will stick around through the rest of the week, although a few more weak disturbances will bring in a little more cloud alongside the risk of a few showers or thunderstorms.

Wednesday

31°C / 18°C
A mix of sun and cloud. Humid.
Thursday

28°C / 18°C
A mix of sun and cloud. Humid. Slight chance a shower or thunderstorm.
Friday

27°C / 17°C
Mainly sunny. Chance showers or thunderstorms Friday night.

Today

We’ll see another hot and humid day today as temperatures climb into the low 30’s again with dew points hovering around 19–20°C. No precipitation is expected although we’ll see a mix of sun and cloud associated with a weak frontal system that wills be in the area.

Thursday

Tomorrow will be an interesting day; at this point it looks like we’ll see a fair amount of cloud in the morning before clearing out for the afternoon as an area of showers and thunderstorms moves across North Dakota and perhaps portions of the southern Red River Valley. Should this system push further north, there would be a slight chance of showers in the morning here in Winnipeg, but at this point I think that we’ll stay dry. Things will be pleasant in the afternoon as we climb to a high around 28°C before a weak upper-level cold front pushes into the Red River Valley. As it sweeps through in the evening, there will be a chance of some showers or thunderstorms pushing into the Red River Valley alongside it. Most regions in the RRV will see a chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the evening and overnight hours. Things will move out overnight as we drop to a low around 18°C.

Friday

Friday will be a beautiful day with mainly sunny skies and a high around 27°C. The humidity will drop off through the day as we heat up and are able to mix some of the remaining moisture near the surface out. There’s little threat of precipitation until the evening and overnight hours as low-pressure system pushes into Southern Manitoba, where thunderstorms will be possible with this system along a trough that will push through the Red River Valley. Depending on how things set up, there may be a slight risk of a severe thunderstorm with this system, so we’ll be sure to keep an eye on how things are setting up.

The Long Weekend

A preliminary look ahead through the long weekend looks beautiful. Skies should clear on Saturday morning and after that, it looks like nothing but sun, sun and more sun all the way through Monday. Highs look to be in the mid-to-upper 20’s, generally between 25–28°C with overnight lows dipping down to around the 12–13°C mark thanks to significantly less humidity in the air mass behind Friday night’s low pressure system.

Above-Normal Temperatures Continue

Brad Leave a comment

The above-normal temperature streak we’ve seen the past few days will continue through the rest of the week – albiet at a slightly moderated level – until a more unsettled pattern develops for the weekend.

Today & Tomorrow

Wednesday

26°C / 11°C
Mainly sunny.
Thursday

26°C / 13°C
Sunny.

We’ll see mainly sunny skies the next couple days as a ridge of high pressure slides across the province in the wake of the cold front that pushed through last night.

This ridge of high pressure will bring a break from the 30°C+ weather we’ve had the past couple days, bringing us back down to closer-to-seasonal temperatures in the mid–20’s. We should reach about 26°C each day which is still a couple degrees warmer than the seasonal average of 24°C for this time of year. The evenings will be quite cool, generally near 10–12°C although temperatures could potentially dip into the single-digits tonight in some areas.

Friday

Friday

27°C / 17°C
A mix of sun and cloud; slight chance of showers or thunderstorms.

We’ll see a regime change come Friday as a leading impulse approaches the province ahead of a developing long-wave upper trough over the west coast. A southerly flow will redevelop ahead of this impulse pushing moisture northwards out of the Northern Plains back into Southern Manitoba; as such, we’ll see a noticable increase in humidity as temperatures climb to around 26–28°C.

Precipitation is a bit of a wildcard at this point; some models bring a wide area of rain and thundershowers into the Red River Valley in the morning and persisting through much of the day until the impulse moves into NW Ontario while others keep much of the rain north of the RRV in the Interlake and bring thunderstorms in during the evening hours.

I think that most of the precipitation will push north of the city, but I certainly can’t rule it out at this point. We’ll definitely see a mix of sun and clouds, though. It looks like a chance for thunderstorms will persist through much of the evening and into the overnight period as well.

Long-Range Outlook

This weekend we’ll see warm, humid and generally unsettled weekend ahead with showers and thunderstorms likely Saturday & Sunday in Southern Manitoba.

NAEFS 8-14 Day Outlook initialized 2013-08-20 12Z

The NAEFS 8–14 day outlook shows slightly above-normal temperatures persisting in the 1–2 week timeframe.

Looking to next week, we will continue to see above-normal temperatures as a slack or southerly flow persists. We’ll also see dew points in the high teens making it feel relatively humid as well. After a month of below-normal temperatures, it looks as if we get to enjoy a late summer after all!

Mild and Settled

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This week will start out mild, with little in the way of active weather.

image

NAM model predicted 500mb winds showing a slack flow through Southern Manitoba

A relatively stagnant flow will prevail over Manitoba for much of this week as the main storm track remains well to our south. This will give us seasonably mild temperatures and little if any precipitation.

Monday
image
Mainly sunny
-2°C / -16°C
Tuesday
image
Mainly sunny. Chance of flurries overnight.
-1°C / -8°C
Wednesday
image
Mainly cloudy. Chance of flurries.
-4°C / -18°C

Monday and Tuesday

Monday will be a pleasant day, with temperatures in the low minus single digits in most areas. There may be a few readings up near the zero degree mark in localized patches. There will be a light to moderate south wind through the day, but it won’t be particularly noticeable in most urbanized areas.

Tuesday will be almost identical to Monday, with temperatures once again generally around or just below zero. There may be patches of fog in Southern Manitoba again on Tuesday morning, but they will dissipate with daytime heating in the morning. The south wind from Monday will die off for the most part, making it a non-factor. A passing weather system may bring us some light snow on Tuesday night into Wednesday, but accumulations will be small.

Wednesday

As that system passes by on Wednesday morning, a weak cold front will go through, dropping temperatures slightly. This won’t prompt any kind of significant cool-down, but it will switch the wind to a slightly brisker northerly flow. Temperatures won’t change much however, with high temperatures in the low to mid minus single digits.

Long Range

In the longer range there is little to talk about. It appears we’ll cool down a bit towards week’s end, but otherwise models show no real trends over the next 7-10 days. No significant warm-ups are in the forecast, nor are there are major weather systems in the forecast. Unfortunately, this also means there is still no sign of spring…but at least there’s no sign of a nasty winter pattern returning either.

Warming Up This Weekend; Snow for Sunday

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Another low pressure system developing over the Yukon Territory will push milder air into Manitoba tomorrow and return us to normal-becoming-above-normal temperatures by the end of the weekend. This low pressure system will slide southwards through the province on Sunday, bringing some light snow with it.

4AM Satellite Composite

North American composite satellite image showing the surge of warmer air pushing into the Alberta. Image valid for 4AM CST.
Today

Mostly cloudy with periods of light snow.
-13°C / -18°C

The Red River Valley will be mainly cloudy today as a mass of stratus pushes down from Central Manitoba, sliding southwards into North Dakota, bringing periods of light snow throughout the Red River Valley. Temperatures will climb to around –13°C this afternoon and temperatures will drop to around –18°C tonight as skies clear this evening.

Saturday

Saturday

Mix of sun and cloud. Patchy flurries in the afternoon.
-6°C / -8°C

The warm front will push across the Red River Valley through Saturday afternoon, pushing our daytime highs up to an above-seasonal –6°C. Skies will become a mix of sun and cloud as the warm front moves in which, when combined with 850mb temperatures sitting near –10°C, will produce some scattered flurries across the Red River Valley. Skies will completely cloud over on Saturday night with temperatures falling to and remaining steady near –8°C.

Sunday

Sunday

Light snow beginning in the afternoon. 2-4*cm*.
-3°C / -7°C

Sunday will be the most active day of the bunch as this low pressure system finally pushes through. Temperatures will climb up to around –3°C as light snow pushes in midday. This system will not be particularly intense; total snowfall accumulations for the afternoon look to be only a couple cm. The light snow will persist through much of the night with another cm or two falling by morning as temperatures dip to about –10°C. Overall it looks like the Red River Valley will see less than 5cm of snow total with this system.

Some disagreement does exist within the models, in particular pertaining to the intensity of this system; the Canadian GDPS is, in particular, quite gung-ho on making this quite a potent system. It’s hard to tell what to make of it, considering it’s the outlier when compared to the other major models and this is the first significant weather system since CMC upgraded the GDPS on Wednesday claiming an improvement to the output “usually seen only once a decade.” Should the GDPS solution be the correct one, the forecast for Sunday should still hold up, save for the potential for a little more snow (closer to 4–6cm instead of 2–4cm). Monday, on the other hand, would likely be a significant winter storm with close to 10cm of snow falling and blizzard conditions through the Red River Valley (excluding the City of Winnipeg). The other models have just a couple cm of snow for Monday with breezy northwesterly winds, but nothing that would produce more than some local blowing snow. Right now, I think that the GDPS is digging the low out of SK too much and has it pushing too far south which would intensify the low too much and end up producing too much snow & wind. It looks more reasonable for a couple cm of snow and some breezy north winds producing just some local blowing snow.

So we’ll have an increasingly warm and mainly pleasant weekend ahead; Monday looks to be a wild card at this point, but holds the potential to be a significant winter storm event. We’ll post updated information as we get closer to the event in the comments below. Enjoy the long weekend!