Tag: Below-Normal Temperatures

Cooler Weather Settles In

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Just like that, fall weather has arrived in the Red River Valley with temperatures over 10 °C cooler than seen on the weekend.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Friday October 4, 2024
The first freeze of the season could arrive by Friday morning.

Today marks the start of fall weather in southern Manitoba, courtesy a much cooler air mass brought in by yesterday’s cold front and very gusty winds. This change reflects a major shift in the large-scale weather pattern; the upper ridge over the Prairies has collapsed, and a quasi-stationary upper low is becoming established over the western coast of Hudson Bay. This change will result in a more west to northwest flow aloft over Manitoba, ushering in seasonal conditions for this time of year.

The result will be a week filled with daytime highs in the mid-teens and overnight lows dropping into the 0 to 5 °C range with a risk that we may see the first frosts of the season.

For a bit more detail, today will bring cloudier conditions with lighter winds than yesterday. A high pressure system passing to the south will spread southwest winds of 20 to 30 km/h into the region as temperatures climb into the mid-teens. A weak disturbance slumping southeastwards across the Prairies will keep conditions cloudy tonight; this will ensure that the overnight low stays mild (for this week) at around 10 °C.

Another cold front will sweep through on Wednesday, bringing gusty northwesterlies and cooler temperatures back to the region. With the cooler temperatures moving in and the prolonged northwesterly flow, some lake-effect showers may develop. Winds will likely keep these north of Winnipeg, but worth noting the possibility for areas in the northern Red River Valley.

A ridge of high pressure will push into the province behind the front, bringing clearing skies and sending overnight lows to near-freezing for the rest of the work week. A widespread freeze could be possible over southern Manitoba overnight Thursday into Friday morning.

Long Range Outlook

A moderating trend will develop over the weekend across southern Manitoba with daytime highs heading back towards the upper teens. Overnight lows will also follow the warming trend, likely heading back into the 5–10 °C range through the weekend.

The region will see variable cloudiness, but little to no precipitation is expected.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 15 °C while the seasonal overnight low is +3 °C.

Tuesday’s Cool, Showery End Leads to Warmer Weather

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One last band of showers will move through on Tuesday evening, capping off a cool June day. Fortunately, warmer weather will return for the rest of the week.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Thursday June 20, 2024
Despite the cooler Tuesday, early-summer warmth will return for the second half of the week.

Another upper-level disturbance will cross southern Manitoba later today and bring another wave of showers across the Red River Valley. This will cap off a day where temperatures struggle to get past the mid-teens as northerly winds and cloudy skies stay entrenched over the area.

Fortunately the winds will ease tonight with clearing skies as a broad area of high pressure spreads east across the Prairies. Temperatures will dip down into the 5–10 °C range once the showers clear out.

For Wednesday and Thursday, more pleasant conditions will return as a west-southwest flow redevelops across the region. Daytime highs will climb into the low 20s on Wednesday, then into the mid-20s for Thursday. Winds will pick up out of the west into the 20–30 km/h range on Wednesday, ease, then pick up out of the south into the 20–30 km/h range on Thursday.

Both days will bring a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms to the region, but they will likely be focused along a west-east trough line that will likely set up from western Manitoba across the southern Interlake region. It’s unlikely that Winnipeg will see any of that activity and both days should be pleasant in the city.

Long Range Outlook

Looking further ahead, cloudier skies will likely return to the region on Friday. A deep upper trough developing over western North America will support the development of a low pressure system over the American Plains that will then lift northeast later Friday into the weekend.

This system would likely bring a wave of thunderstorms and showers to southern Manitoba on Friday night into Saturday, with the worst weather ending Saturday morning and cooler, showery conditions possible afterwards.

Daytime highs would likely sit in the mid-20s on Friday, drop to around 20 °C on Saturday, then bounce back up to the mid-20s on Sunday. This system could produce another notable rainfall across southern Manitoba with localized accumulations of 30 to 60 mm possible.

Sunshine should return on Sunday, making for a nice end the weekend!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 24 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 11 °C.

Light Snow Leads to Brief Cold Snap

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A disturbance passing through southern Manitoba later today will bring light snow followed by moderate northwest winds. Colder air will slump into the region behind it for the end of the work week, but temperatures will rebound quickly through the weekend.

RDPS 24hr. Snowfall Forecast (10:1 SLR) valid 12Z Wednesday February 14, 2024
A low pressure system will leave a swath of fresh snow across southern Manitoba on Tuesday.

Winnipeg will sit under mainly cloudy skies today with southerly winds picking up to around 30 km/h ahead of a low pressure system moving in from the west. Temperatures will be mild with highs near -4 °C this afternoon. Light snow will move across southwest Manitoba today and reach Winnipeg by mid- to late-afternoon.

The snow will continue eastwards through the evening, tapering off to flurries overnight with around 2–3 cm of fresh snow left behind. Temperatures will dip to lows in the -10 to -5 °C range across the Red River Valley tonight.

It will be pleasant on Wednesday with highs again near -5 °C and westerly winds in the 20 to 30 km/h range. With that warmth will come more cloudy skies, though. A cold front will sweep through the region later Wednesday, bringing breezy northwest winds and cooling temperatures. Skies will likely clear out on Wednesday night, letting temperatures drop to a low in the mid-minus teens.

Thursday will finally bring sunshine to the region with northwest winds of 20 to 30 km/h and a high in the -15 to -10 °C range. Unfortunately, those winds will make it feel like it’s in the -20s. An Arctic high will continue to slump southwards through the Prairies through Thursday night; as it drops south, the winds will ease in southern Manitoba and temperatures will head to a low likely near -25 °C.

Long Range Outlook

Southern Manitoba will be under the grip of the Arctic high on Friday. The region will see plenty of sunshine with highs that struggle to climb into the -20 to -15 °C range.

The axis of coldest air will then shift off to the east for the weekend. Temperatures will return to near-seasonal values with breezy westerly winds on Saturday. The near-seasonal temperatures should persist into next week, then likely be followed with another surge of Pacific air that will send temperatures back towards freezing.

Fortunately, it looks like the region should see plenty of sun this weekend which will be a welcome change from the copious amounts of cloud cover the region has seen over the last while!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -9 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -19 °C.

Cold Weather Lasts Through the Week

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It will be a cold week in Winnipeg with below-seasonal temperatures and variable cloudiness.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Thursday January 18, 2024
Although the Polar Vortex will move off to the east, cold air will linger across the Prairies through the week. In an unusual twist, it will briefly warm up in northern Manitoba as Atlantic air wraps westwards over the eastern Arctic and into the region.

The Polar Vortex will sit over eastern Canada this week with a cold trough hanging westwards across the Prairies. As a result, much of the region will see below-seasonal temperatures; fortunately, the ruthless cold that was entrenched over the western Prairies will moderate away from those extreme values.

In Winnipeg, the city will see more light snow today with skies on the cloudier side through Wednesday. Daytime highs will climb into the -15 to -20 °C range with west-northwest winds of 20 to 30 km/h. The snow won’t accumulate too much; the city may see a few centimetres accumulation over the next several days.

Overnight lows will mainly sit in the -25 to -20 °C range. Winnipeg and area will likely see more sunshine in the second half of the week.

Long Range Outlook

Heading into the weekend, the Polar Vortex is forecast to finally shift eastwards out to the Atlantic, weakening the cold air over the Prairies and allowing a more progressive pattern to develop. Upper ridging will build into the Prairies over the weekend, spreading milder air into the western Prairies.

This will help bring temperatures back to seasonal values through the weekend, although will likely bring cloudy skies back to the region.

Next week, skies will continue on the cloudier side, but temperatures will climb to above-seasonal values. Daytime highs will climb back towards the -5 °C mark with lows close to -10 °C.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -13 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -24 °C.

#awm #snow #below_seasonal_temperatures