Tag: Below-Normal Temperatures

First Blast of Bitter Winter Cold Incoming

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Winnipeg will see its first shot of bitterly cold Arctic air as a ridge of high pressure builds into the region this week.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Thursday December 12, 2024
An Arctic high will bring bitterly cold temperatures with lows in some places falling below -30 °C this week.

With the system that brought 15 to 20 cm of new snow to Winnipeg on its way out, the next system to shape the weather in the region will be an Arctic High building into the province from the north.

Before it gets here, though, a weak disturbance will move through the region today. It will bring a little bit of light snow, perhaps another 2–4 centimetres, today and then sweep a strong cold front southwards.

Temperatures will plummet behind the front as northerly winds of 30–40 km/h drive Arctic air southwards. A seasonable high near -10 °C today will quickly be forgotten as skies clear tonight and temperatures head to a low in the mid-minus 20s.

The Arctic High will be in full force through the rest of the work week. With plenty of sunshine, daytime highs will struggle to climb into the -25 to -20 °C range with overnight lows dipping back into the -25 to -35 °C range. Wind chill values will likely get close to -40 at times on Wednesday night and Thursday night.

Long Range Outlook

Temperatures will begin to moderate on Friday as the high begins to weaken and the core of coldest air moves out of the region. Daytime highs should climb back above -20 °C but breezy southerly winds will have a bite to them and produce wind chills that make it feel much worse.

Temperatures will climb back to seasonal values for Saturday and continue warming on Sunday. The region will likely see mixed skies through the weekend.

A bit of snow is possible later Sunday into Monday ahead of colder temperatures slumping back into the region.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -9 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -18 °C.

Snow Moves Across Southern Manitoba This Weekend

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Winnipeg likely won’t escape snow a second time; a low pressure system moving through the province will spread accumulating snow across southern Manitoba this weekend.

RDPS Total Accumulated Snowfall Forecast valid 00Z November 22, 2024 to 06Z November 25, 2024 at 10:1 SLR.
A disturbance crossing the Prairies this weekend will bring heavy snow to Saskatchewan and accumulating snow to southern Manitoba.

Unfortunately, those missing the sun won’t find much relief in the days ahead. Cloud cover will continue to smother the Winnipeg area in the days ahead with only limited opportunities for the sun to shine through.

For today, skies will stay cloudy as a weak disturbance tracks by north of the region. Temperatures will climb to a high in the -5 to 0 °C range with light southwesterly winds. There is a chance of flurries in Winnipeg; the main snow associated with this system will pass through the Interlake, but the Winnipeg area could get clipped by the southern edge. A couple centimetres are possible in the southern Interlake with less than a centimetre likely in the northern Red River Valley.

The cloud cover may break up a little bit overnight as light northwest winds move into the region. Temperatures will dip down into the -10 to -5 °C range by Saturday morning.

A ridge of high pressure will move across the region on Saturday. Some sunny breaks are possible, but the next low moving towards the area will spread more cloud into the Red River Valley later in the day. Winds will be light with a high around -5 °C. Some light snow could push into the area in the second half of the night.

An upper disturbance will track across the southern Prairies on Sunday and support an inverted trough that will build into Manitoba. This will spread a large area of snow across Saskatchewan on Saturday and Manitoba on Sunday. The heaviest snow will fall in Saskatchewan, where as much as 15 to 25 cm will fall across central and eastern portions of the province. In manitoba, the Parkland and Interlake will likely see 10 to 25 cm of snow, while areas along the Trans-Canada Highway corridor receive 5 to 10 cm. Amounts will diminish into the 2 to 5 cm range further south towards the international border. In Winnipeg, over 5 cm is likely to fall by Sunday evening.

Aside from the snow, temperatures will climb to a high just over -5 °C with light northeast winds. Temperatures will dip down into the -10 to -5 °C range overnight with a continued chance of flurries overnight.

Long Range Outlook

Winnipeg will get a break from the snow on Monday morning, but some more snow is likely to develop Monday afternoon as northerly winds move into the region. In addition to general light snow, areas in the lee of Lake Winnipeg and Lake Manitoba will likely see some lake-effect snow through the afternoon hours.

The cloud cover will start to break up on Monday night, leading into the return of some sun for the middle of next week. The return of some sunshine will be driven by colder air that will continue to filter into the region all week. Daytime highs are likely to fall into the -15 to -10 °C range with overnight lows dipping into the -20 to -15 °C range, bringing the first real push of wintery air into the region this year.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -4 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -12 °C.

Cooler Weather Settles In

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Just like that, fall weather has arrived in the Red River Valley with temperatures over 10 °C cooler than seen on the weekend.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Friday October 4, 2024
The first freeze of the season could arrive by Friday morning.

Today marks the start of fall weather in southern Manitoba, courtesy a much cooler air mass brought in by yesterday’s cold front and very gusty winds. This change reflects a major shift in the large-scale weather pattern; the upper ridge over the Prairies has collapsed, and a quasi-stationary upper low is becoming established over the western coast of Hudson Bay. This change will result in a more west to northwest flow aloft over Manitoba, ushering in seasonal conditions for this time of year.

The result will be a week filled with daytime highs in the mid-teens and overnight lows dropping into the 0 to 5 °C range with a risk that we may see the first frosts of the season.

For a bit more detail, today will bring cloudier conditions with lighter winds than yesterday. A high pressure system passing to the south will spread southwest winds of 20 to 30 km/h into the region as temperatures climb into the mid-teens. A weak disturbance slumping southeastwards across the Prairies will keep conditions cloudy tonight; this will ensure that the overnight low stays mild (for this week) at around 10 °C.

Another cold front will sweep through on Wednesday, bringing gusty northwesterlies and cooler temperatures back to the region. With the cooler temperatures moving in and the prolonged northwesterly flow, some lake-effect showers may develop. Winds will likely keep these north of Winnipeg, but worth noting the possibility for areas in the northern Red River Valley.

A ridge of high pressure will push into the province behind the front, bringing clearing skies and sending overnight lows to near-freezing for the rest of the work week. A widespread freeze could be possible over southern Manitoba overnight Thursday into Friday morning.

Long Range Outlook

A moderating trend will develop over the weekend across southern Manitoba with daytime highs heading back towards the upper teens. Overnight lows will also follow the warming trend, likely heading back into the 5–10 °C range through the weekend.

The region will see variable cloudiness, but little to no precipitation is expected.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 15 °C while the seasonal overnight low is +3 °C.

Tuesday’s Cool, Showery End Leads to Warmer Weather

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One last band of showers will move through on Tuesday evening, capping off a cool June day. Fortunately, warmer weather will return for the rest of the week.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Thursday June 20, 2024
Despite the cooler Tuesday, early-summer warmth will return for the second half of the week.

Another upper-level disturbance will cross southern Manitoba later today and bring another wave of showers across the Red River Valley. This will cap off a day where temperatures struggle to get past the mid-teens as northerly winds and cloudy skies stay entrenched over the area.

Fortunately the winds will ease tonight with clearing skies as a broad area of high pressure spreads east across the Prairies. Temperatures will dip down into the 5–10 °C range once the showers clear out.

For Wednesday and Thursday, more pleasant conditions will return as a west-southwest flow redevelops across the region. Daytime highs will climb into the low 20s on Wednesday, then into the mid-20s for Thursday. Winds will pick up out of the west into the 20–30 km/h range on Wednesday, ease, then pick up out of the south into the 20–30 km/h range on Thursday.

Both days will bring a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms to the region, but they will likely be focused along a west-east trough line that will likely set up from western Manitoba across the southern Interlake region. It’s unlikely that Winnipeg will see any of that activity and both days should be pleasant in the city.

Long Range Outlook

Looking further ahead, cloudier skies will likely return to the region on Friday. A deep upper trough developing over western North America will support the development of a low pressure system over the American Plains that will then lift northeast later Friday into the weekend.

This system would likely bring a wave of thunderstorms and showers to southern Manitoba on Friday night into Saturday, with the worst weather ending Saturday morning and cooler, showery conditions possible afterwards.

Daytime highs would likely sit in the mid-20s on Friday, drop to around 20 °C on Saturday, then bounce back up to the mid-20s on Sunday. This system could produce another notable rainfall across southern Manitoba with localized accumulations of 30 to 60 mm possible.

Sunshine should return on Sunday, making for a nice end the weekend!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 24 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 11 °C.