Tag: Below-Normal Temperatures

Here Comes The Deep Freeze

Brad Leave a comment

Now that the cleanup is underway after a brutal snowstorm that dumped over a foot of snow across many places in Southern Manitoba and produced white-out conditions that closed a majority of major highways across the region, cold Arctic air will spread southeastwards across the Prairies, bringing below-seasonal temperatures for the first time since mid-October.

Today will be a shockingly cold day with daytime highs of just -17°C as a ridge of Arctic high pressure builds into the region. Skies will be partly cloudy with light winds out of the west to northwest. There will be a slight chance of flurries as light lake-effect snow continues off of Lake Manitoba. Tonight will be very cold with mostly clear skies and a low near -26°C.

This impressively strong Arctic outbreak will send sub-freezing temperatures (blue) all the way to the Gulf of Mexico states.

This weekend will be cold. Saturday will see a high of just -18°C and a low near -25°C. There will be some cloud cover that works its way into the region in the afternoon as a disturbance slides through South Dakota, but other than a chance for some flurries near the US border, shouldn’t cause much weather for us.

Sunday will be a bit of a mixed bag with a few clouds likely in the morning, then some clearing, then increasing cloud as the next system that will affect us approaches. Temperatures will be a bit milder with highs near -16°C, but with winds picking up out of the south to 20-30 km/h, it will feel closer to -25. Sunday night will bring cloudy skies with an increasing chance of snow as temperatures drop just a couple degrees to a low near -18°C.

Long Range

Sunday night’s disturbance will bring a chance for flurries to Southern Manitoba alongside a shot of slightly-below seasonal temperatures, but on the back-side of it another shot of Arctic air will blast southeastwards and plunge temperatures back into the -20’s. Will we see our first -30°C low next week? Time will tell.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -9°C while the seasonal overnight low is -18°C.

Cool Weather Starts The Week

Scott Leave a comment

This week will remain on the cool side as we continue to deal with chilly air flooding down from the north.

Cool air will continue to push down from the north today
Cool air will continue to push down from the north today

This Week

Today will be another cool one in southern Manitoba. High temperatures in the upper single digits are expected with breezy north winds. A weak low pressure system will pass through the region, perhaps bringing a few showers to southern Manitoba. Portions of western Manitoba and the Interlake may receive some heavier precipitation, with periods of light to moderate rain possible. There may even be some snow mixed in, especially as temperatures cool in the evening and after dark.

Tuesday will remain cool, with temperatures once again in the mid to upper single digits across southern Manitoba. Skies will be mainly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower or flurry. Winds will be breezy out of the north at 20 km/h.

Cool weather will continue on Wednesday as high temperatures only climb into the mid single digits. Skies will remain mainly cloudy with a slight chance of showers or flurries. Winds will be westerly at 20 km/h.

Long Range

Medium- to long-range models suggest that above-normal weather may make a come back as we move toward mid-month with temperatures that may begin to climb back to normal or above-normal values by the weekend and continue into next week. This should stave off the risk of any significant snow for the foreseeable future.

Flurries Start Off A Cool Weekend

Brad

Today will start off with flurries moving through the Red River Valley, setting the stage for a snap of cool weather that will bring temperatures well below seasonal. While temperatures will rebound slowly through the weekend, it will hardly be beautiful spring weather.

Today will be a rude awakening for many, as cold temperatures combine with a weak disturbance rolling through the region to produce widespread light flurry activity through the Red River Valley. Some places might get lucky enough to see things change over to scattered showers briefly this afternoon, but for the most part, expect some light snow for much of the morning and into the afternoon. Fortunately, the snow won't really stick and no accumulation is expected.

In addition to the snow, the winds will continue to be strong out of the northwest at 40 gusting 60km/h with a daytime high that just barely gets to 5°C.1 Temperatures will dip to near the -4°C mark tonight with clearing skies. Near the core of Winnipeg it's not as likely that there will be a hard freeze, but certainly near the outer edges of the city and into the rural areas a significant freeze is likely so you may want to take precautions if you've any sensitive plants outside already.

GDPS Forecast 850mb Temperature Anomaly
The 850mb temperature anomaly forecast shows a large core of below-seasonal (blue) temperatures over Manitoba today.

Saturday will finally bring out the sun in Winnipeg, but it will continue to be chilly with a daytime high of 9°C under mainly sunny skies. Winds will continue out of the northwest, but be slightly weaker at 20km/h or so. Expect a low near the freezing mark on Saturday night with partly cloudy skies and light winds.

Sunday will see another disturbance moving through the province in the northwest flow. More cloud will move into Winnipeg alongside slightly warmer temperatures; daytime highs are expected to climb into the mid-teens! A band of showers will likely move through in the afternoon, bringing a decent chance of precipitation to most areas in the Red River Valley. Winds will vary through the Red River Valley from light to around 30km/h. Expect a low on Sunday night near 3°C with partly cloudy skies.

Long Range: Climbing To Seasonal

Looking ahead to the start of next week, it appears that temperatures will make a continued climb back towards seasonal, however the with a stubborn upper trough refusing to leave the area, that could end up taking longer than expected. Conditions aren't expected to be too bad with a good mix of sun and cloud and highs in the mid- to upper-teens. There will be a slight chance of showers.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 19°C while the seasonal overnight low is 5°C.

  1. Nearly 15°C below normal for daytime highs right now in Winnipeg. ↩

Arctic Blast Incoming

Brad Leave a comment

A major shift in the overall weather pattern will bring a blast of Arctic air to Winnipeg for the end of the week, ushered in by unpleasant and strong northerly winds and the now-infamous Polar Vortex. Fortunately, the cold snap looks to be short-lived as the coldest air will rotate off towards Eastern Canada quickly and near-seasonal temperatures return early next week.

Today will remain pleasant with above-seasonal warmth in place as temperatures climb to around the 9°C mark for Winnipeg’s daytime high. Skies will start off sunny, but become mixed through the afternoon as cloud begins spreading in ahead of a low pressure system that will impact the province later today and tomorrow. Showers and flurries will push into western Manitoba this afternoon, but will remain west of the Red River Valley for the most part until tomorrow.

Here in Winnipeg, skies will be cloudy tonight as the temperature drops to a low near 0°C.

RDPS 12hr. precipitation forecast valid 00Z Friday April 1, 2016
Scattered showers and flurries are expected across Southern Manitoba on Thursday

Thursday will be mainly cloudy with a chance of showers or flurries throughout much of the day. The first of two cold fronts will swing through in the afternoon, ushering in strong northerly winds of 40 gusting 60 km/h. Temperatures will climb to 4-5°C for the daytime high, but much cooler air will work into the region tonight, sending overnight lows to around -8°C.

Friday will also bring cloudy skies with a high near +2°C as another low pressure system moves through brining a decent chance for some more snowfall through the afternoon/evening. Behind the system, another shot of strong northerly winds, this time as strong as 50 gusting to 70 km/h. Temperatures will fall to a low near -10°C on Friday night.

Long Range

The weekend will be cool with below-normal temperatures as the Polar Vortex grazes Manitoba as it rotates eastwards into Ontario.

GDPS forecast 500mb height anomalies valid 18Z Saturday April 2, 2016
GDPS forecast 850mb (~ 1.5km AGL) temperature anomalies valid 18Z Saturday April 2, 2016

The Polar Vortex is easily seen by abnormal 500 mb heights (pictured above over Ontario in pink/purple) and will bring below-normal temperatures to much of Manitoba throughout the weekend with daytime highs near the freezing mark. Alongside the cool weather will also come mainly cloudy skies, but no precipitation is expected.

Temperatures will rebound back towards seasonal next week with precipitation confined to a weak disturbance mid-week that could potentially bring a couple cm of snow or few mm of rain, depending on temperatures & timing.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 5°C while the seasonal overnight low is -6°C.