Tag: Below-Normal Temperatures

Flurries Bring More Cold Weather

Brad Leave a comment

A disturbance passing through southwestern Manitoba today will spread a few flurries into the Red River Valley through the day today, while snow giving accumulations remains to our west where a further 2-4 cm of snow is expected to fall. Another blast of Arctic air will plunge southwards behind this system, plunging temperatures 10-15°C below normal by the end of the week.

A few flurries will be in place throughout Winnipeg and the Red River Valley today as a low pressure system passes through southwestern Manitoba. West of the Valley, through Parkland & southwest Manitoba, the snowfall will be more organized, with between 2 to 4 cm piling up by the end of the day.

Amounts diminish quickly to the east, however, with only a dusting in the Red River Valley. The flurries will taper off by the evening, leaving us with mostly cloudy skies.

Temperature wise, today will be the best day of the week. Daytime highs should climb to around -14°C in Winnipeg today with winds out of the southeast between 10-20 km/h. Temperatures will be cool tonight, but the cloud cover will help moderate things ever so slightly. The overnight low in Winnipeg will fall to near -23°C with light northwesterly winds.

The story for the remainder of the work week is simple: Arctic air building in. Behind Wednesday’s low, an Arctic ridge will build southeastwards, ushering in colder air that will result in temperatures near 10°C below normal by Friday.

GDPS 850mb Temperature Anomaly valid 18Z Friday February 12, 2016
The GDPS is showing 850mb temperatures nearly 10°C below normal for Winnipeg on Friday.

Thursday will be fairly cloudy as we remain relatively close to a strong frontal boundary to our west. As a result, temperatures will be similar to Wednesday but just a degree or two colder. That means in Winnipeg I expect to see a high near -15°C with winds remaining fairly light out of the west to northwest. Some cloud will begin breaking up on Thursday night as the ridge begins pushing into the southern Prairies, and the overnight low will dip to around -25 or -26°C under light northerly winds.

Friday will see clearing as the Arctic ridge moves over Southern Manitoba. This will be the coldest day of the week with high temperatures struggling to climb above -20°C. Friday night will be the coldest night of the week, with temperatures dipping precariously close to the -30°C mark, if not below it. Throughout the whole time, winds will remain light.

Long Range: Big-Time Warm-Up In The Cards?

While the cold weather will likely persist into the weekend, all signs point towards a dramatic warm-up for the beginning of next week and potentially persisting well through the week.

The first of several Pacific-sourced systems is expected to track across the Prairies on Monday, spreading warmer air eastwards as the Polar Vortex begins shifting eastwards. This system is forecast to be followed up by a much, much stronger system that is showing the potential of bringing significant amounts of warm air to the eastern Prairies. The potential for daytime highs above 0°C returns for the second half of next week.

Of course, along with any big warm-up, the potential exists for some particularly uncomfortable days with strong southerly winds and it’s currently unclear on where exactly precipitation associated with these systems will fall. More on that later this week!

The normal daytime high for Winnipeg is currently -9°C and the normal overnight low is -20°C.

A Much Cooler Start to the Week

Scott Leave a comment

After last week’s high heat and humidity, the much cooler conditions this week will come as a relief to many. However, it might be a little bit too cool, with temperatures only hovering around 20C.

Today will be cool, but fairly pleasant. Temperatures will be near the 20C mark in southern Manitoba under a mixture of sun and cloud. Winds will be light as a surface ridge of high pressure will be in place over southern Manitoba. Portions of western Manitoba may have a slight chance of a shower, but otherwise no precipitation is expected.

Forecast 500mb Winds with Jetstream Annotation from the RDPS
A deep trough over the Central Prairies will deflect the jet stream well to our south, bringing unseasonably cool weather to most of the Prairies.

Tuesday will see little change in conditions from Monday. High temperatures will remain near 20C, with mainly sunny skies. Winds will be from the north-east at 20km/h.

Wednesday will once again be seasonably cool with temperatures in the low twenties. Skies are expected to be a mixture of sun and cloud with breezy winds out of the north.

Long Range

The long range forecast shows generally seasonable to below seasonable temperatures in southern Manitoba over the next week. However, we may see more surges of warm air as move move toward the end of the month.

Below Normal Weather to Start the Week

Scott Leave a comment

This week will start out on the cool side with high temperatures in the low twenties.

Monday

Today will be mainly sunny with temperatures in the low twenties. The average high temperature for early August is 26°C, so this will represent cooler than normal weather. The wind will be north-west at 30km/h.

Tuesday

Tuesday will see much the same weather as Monday, with temperatures in the low twenties. Skies should once again be mainly sunny and winds will be light.

Wednesday

Wednesday may feature showers in southern Manitoba as a low pressure system passes through the region. Accumulations look to be fairly small at this point, so it will not be a significant event. Besides the rain, temperatures will remain below seasonal with highs in the low twenties. Winds will be breezy from the south.

Cool Weekend on Tap

Brad Leave a comment

Just when it felt like Winnipeg was out of the woods and summer had arrived, conditions will make it feel like the clock has been turned back to the beginning of the month with temperatures 10°C below normal and a risk of frost returning for the weekend. The cooler weather is courtesy an Arctic airmass that is plunging southwards behind yesterday’s potent system that brought rain & thunderstorms to Saskatchewan & Manitoba.

Today will be a very cool day with brisk northerly winds at 30km/h with some gusts up to around 50km/h.  Today’s high will top out at just 11–12°C through the Red River Valley with mixed-to-cloudy skies until the afternoon when things begin to clear up.  Winds will ease tonight with temperatures plummeting towards the freezing mark. Winnipeg will just be ahead of the main ridge axis, making sub-freezing temperatures quite possible. Areas near the core of the city may escape frost, however anywhere closer to outskirts of the city will have a strong chance of seeing some frost. The low will vary depending where in the city the temperature is measured, but in general I expect it to be around 0°C with temperatures possible 1–2°C colder than than near the outskirts of the city. Rural areas will likely deal with overnight lows of –1 or –2°C.

The remainder of the weekend looks much calmer but still cool. Saturday and Sunday will see high temperatures returning back towards the mid-teens with mainly sunny skies. Some cloud will push through late Saturday through early Sunday which should help keep the overnight lows in the low-to-mid single digits.

A Glance At Next Week

The start of next week will bring a return to more seasonable high temperatures in the 20’s, however alongside the warmer weather comes the potential for more unsettled weather as multiple systems track through the Southern Prairies & Northern Plains.

As such, Southern Manitoba will likely be dealing with a decent chance for showers or rain through the first half of the week. Depending on how things develop, rainfall totals could be anywhere from a trace to over an inch, so we’ll be sure to track things as the weekend progresses. The weather looks to settle down for the second half of the week with daytime highs in the upper teens to lower 20’s.