Below Normal Weather to Start the Week

This week will start out on the cool side with high temperatures in the low twenties.

Monday

Today will be mainly sunny with temperatures in the low twenties. The average high temperature for early August is 26°C, so this will represent cooler than normal weather. The wind will be north-west at 30km/h.

Tuesday

Tuesday will see much the same weather as Monday, with temperatures in the low twenties. Skies should once again be mainly sunny and winds will be light.

Wednesday

Wednesday may feature showers in southern Manitoba as a low pressure system passes through the region. Accumulations look to be fairly small at this point, so it will not be a significant event. Besides the rain, temperatures will remain below seasonal with highs in the low twenties. Winds will be breezy from the south.

Cool Weekend on Tap

Just when it felt like Winnipeg was out of the woods and summer had arrived, conditions will make it feel like the clock has been turned back to the beginning of the month with temperatures 10°C below normal and a risk of frost returning for the weekend. The cooler weather is courtesy an Arctic airmass that is plunging southwards behind yesterday’s potent system that brought rain & thunderstorms to Saskatchewan & Manitoba.

Today will be a very cool day with brisk northerly winds at 30km/h with some gusts up to around 50km/h.  Today’s high will top out at just 11–12°C through the Red River Valley with mixed-to-cloudy skies until the afternoon when things begin to clear up.  Winds will ease tonight with temperatures plummeting towards the freezing mark. Winnipeg will just be ahead of the main ridge axis, making sub-freezing temperatures quite possible. Areas near the core of the city may escape frost, however anywhere closer to outskirts of the city will have a strong chance of seeing some frost. The low will vary depending where in the city the temperature is measured, but in general I expect it to be around 0°C with temperatures possible 1–2°C colder than than near the outskirts of the city. Rural areas will likely deal with overnight lows of –1 or –2°C.

The remainder of the weekend looks much calmer but still cool. Saturday and Sunday will see high temperatures returning back towards the mid-teens with mainly sunny skies. Some cloud will push through late Saturday through early Sunday which should help keep the overnight lows in the low-to-mid single digits.

A Glance At Next Week

The start of next week will bring a return to more seasonable high temperatures in the 20’s, however alongside the warmer weather comes the potential for more unsettled weather as multiple systems track through the Southern Prairies & Northern Plains.

As such, Southern Manitoba will likely be dealing with a decent chance for showers or rain through the first half of the week. Depending on how things develop, rainfall totals could be anywhere from a trace to over an inch, so we’ll be sure to track things as the weekend progresses. The weather looks to settle down for the second half of the week with daytime highs in the upper teens to lower 20’s.

Chilly Start to the Week

This week will start off on the cool side as a brisk northerly flow builds in behind this weekend’s Colorado Low. Temperatures on Monday will be downright chilly for mid-May.

Cool weather will dominate southern Manitoba on Monday
Cool weather will dominate southern Manitoba on Monday

Monday

We’ll see skies gradually clear today as the system that brought us rain (and snow) this weekend departs. It will remain very chilly though, as temperatures barely climb into positive values. Daytime highs will only make it into the low to mid single digits, which should hopefully be enough to melt a good amount of the snow that fell. Winds will be northerly at 40 km/h gusting to 60 km/h, but will taper off throughout the day as the system pushes further off to the east.

Tuesday

Tuesday will remain on the cool side, but should be a fairly pleasant day (at least relative to the weekend!). High pressure will build into the region behind the weekend’s low pressure system, bringing much calmer conditions. High temperatures will climb into the teens under mainly sunny skies and light winds.

Wednesday

Wednesday will be quite nice as temperatures climb into the upper teens under mainly sunny skies. Winds will be relatively light and from the north-west, making for another pleasant day.

Long Range

The long range forecast shows conditions remaining slightly below normal through the end of the work-week. There are hints that we’ll see warmer conditions build in by the weekend, but it’s too early to say for sure. In general, models show us transitioning to a generally warmer pattern toward the end of the month, although there will still be some cooler days mixed in here and there.

Cool Weekend Ahead

Temperatures will remain well below normal through the coming weekend as unseasonably cool air becomes entrenched over the region behind the Colorado Low that brought rain to Southern Manitoba on Wednesday & Thursday.

Today will be a comparatively chilly day with temperatures struggling to climb to a high of just 7°C; this is around 10°C below the average high of 18°C for this time of year. The cool temperatures will be accompanied by gusty northwesterly winds of 30km/h with gusts to about 50km/h throughout most of the day. Skies will be fairly cloudy, but a few sunny breaks will manage to materialize through the day.

Tonight in the Red River Valley will bring cloudy periods and a low temperature dipping just below freezing to –1°C.

Saturday and Sunday will be fairly similar days with highs near 11 or 12°C and mixed skies as some cloud cover streams across the region from North Dakota. Winds will be relatively light out of the north at around 20km/h. Both Saturday and Sunday night will bring some cloud with lows in the 1–3°C range.

Cool Weather Persists Into Next Week

There’s nothing but bad news for those hoping for a quick rebound back to summer-like weather: it’s going to take quite a while for seasonal temperatures to return to the Red River Valley.

The GDPS clearly shows a trough of cold air remaining entrenched over Manitoba.
This image valid Monday morning from the GDPS shows a trough of cold air remaining entrenched over Manitoba. Image depicts 700mb temperatures.

Cooler-than-seasonal temperatures are expected to persist until the middle of next week thanks to the cold trough pictured above remaining stubbornly entrenched over the province. Long-range models are showing a return to seasonal warmth in the high teens for the second half of next week as an upper-level ride begins to build into the region, shunting the colder weather off to the east.