Tag: Below-Normal Temperatures

Cold Snap for the Weekend

Brad Leave a comment
Friday afternoon 850mb temperature forecast (RDPS)
Cooler weather is on the way for the weekend as a significant pool of Arctic air grazes Southern Manitoba.

Much cooler temperatures are on the way for the weekend – especially overnight lows – as a push of Arctic air slumps southwards behind the cold front that passed through Southern Manitoba last night. The result will be below normal daytime highs and some exceptionally cold nights for mid-March.

Friday
-2°C / -19°C
Mostly cloudy; slight chance of morning flurries

Saturday
-5°C / -12°C
Partly cloudy

Sunday
-2°C / -10°C
Increasing cloud

Today will be a mostly cloudy day with some sunny breaks this afternoon, however the main weather for the day will be the brisk northerly winds to 30–40km/h that pick up through the day. These winds will be ushering in significantly cooler air for this evening. Fortunately, temperatures will be able to recover a little bit today before the colder air pushes in with high temperatures reaching a slightly below-normal[1] –2°C. Unfortunately, the cold air slams into the Red River Valley tonight. Temperatures will drop to around –19°C overnight.

Saturday and Sunday look fairly quiet weather-wise. After a very cold start to the morning, temperatures on Saturday should climb to around –5°C under partly cloudy skies. This high will be around 6°C below normal. Temperatures will dip just below –10°C on Saturday night and then climb back up to –2°C or so on Sunday afternoon. Sunday looks to start fairly sunny but see increasing cloudiness through the day as a disturbance slips across southwestern Manitoba.

Seasonal Weather Returns Next Week

Seasonal highs anywhere from 0 to +4°C will return for the start of next week. Conditions look fairly dry, however early indications point to a system moving through Southern Manitoba mid-week that could bring some rain (or less likely, snow) to the area.

  1. Normal daytime highs for this time of year are around +1°C.  ↩

Cooling Down Again

Scott Leave a comment

We’ll have a warm, but windy, Monday before another arctic cold front comes through, returning below-normal temperatures to the region.

Monday will be warm and windy as strong southerlies develop
Monday will be warm and windy as strong southerlies develop
Monday
-6°C / -18°C
Mainly sunny

Today will be warm, but windy as a strong southerly flow develops ahead of a cold front. Wind speeds will be 40km/h gusting to 60km/h, making it feel significantly colder than it will actually be. High temperatures in the mid to upper minus single digits will end up feeling more like -15 to -20 when you factor in the wind.

Tuesday
-16°C / -24°C
Mainly cloudy with flurries

An arctic cold front will move through early on Tuesday, ushering in colder weather once again. As the cold front goes through we’ll also see some flurries, but accumulations will be small. Wind speeds will really pick up in association with this front, with north-west winds of 40km/h gusting to 60km/h for much of the day. This will send wind chill values close to -30.

Wednesday
-21°C / -28°C
Mix of sun and cloud with chance of flurries

Wednesday will be even colder than Tuesday as arctic air becomes entrenched in southern Manitoba. High temperatures will be near -20, with the wind chill making it feel more like the -30s. We may also see some light flurries throughout the day as the low-levels of the atmosphere become unstable.

Long Range

Long range models suggest we’ll begin to see more frequent warm weather by next weekend. This will be the result of a western ridge extending further east into Manitoba. That doesn’t mean all the snow is suddenly going to disappear, but it will certainly be more pleasant. March 1 was the beginning of meteorological spring, so it’s just a matter of time before spring actually arrives!

Cool Weather Continuing, but Hope on the Horizon

Brad Leave a comment

The next few days will see cool weather continuing as yet another Arctic high pushes through the region. It’s not all bad news, however, as it seems like we may see a brief break from the cold this weekend into the beginning of next week as the coldest core of air pushes off to our east.

Wednesday
-18°C / -27°C
Gradual clearing with a chance of flurries

Thursday
-16°C / -24°C
Mainly sunny

Friday
-12°C / -20°C
Mainly sunny

Today will start off with mainly cloudy skies and see gradual clearing as the day progresses. Temperatures will warm up to around -18°C with a chance of some flurry activity through midday into the afternoon. Winds will strengthen to around 30km/h this afternoon ahead of the incoming Arctic ridge. Skies will clear through the evening as the temperature heads to a low near -27°C.

Thursday and Friday will be quiet, cool days with highs near -16°C & -12°C respectively and mainly sunny skies.

Warmer Weather on Tap For The Weekend

As mentioned above, a brief reprieve is in store through the weekend into early next week as warmer temperatures work into the region. Highs look to sit near -10°C on Saturday and Sunday with some flurry activity possible on Sunday. Monday may see even warmer temperatures climbing towards the -5°C mark.

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Outlook
NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Outlook

Heading further into next week it looks like the cold weather will return. The NAEFS 8-14 day temperature anomaly outlook shows a high probability of below-normal temperatures returning to the region.

Cool Weekend Leads to a Warm-Up Next Week

Brad Leave a comment

Cooler weather will stick around for a few more days in Winnipeg & the Red River Valley until warmer air begins working its way across the Prairies next week. Fortunately, things will feel nicer on the weekend as the gusty winds that have been around for a couple days subside into a cool but calm weekend.

The coming days will be dominated by one last big Arctic ridge moving into the region. Daytime highs will peak at –18°C today and slide towards –23 or –22°C by Sunday, with overnight lows dropping towards –30°C on Saturday night before warmer air begins making its way into the region on Sunday night. Skies will start off partly cloudy to mixed today with a slight chance of some scattered flurry activity, and then gradually clear out for a mainly sunny weekend. Winds will be breezy today at around 30–40km/h with some local blowing snow possible in the rural areas of the Red River Valley, but will diminish tonight to fairly light through the weekend.

Warming Up Next Week

As we mentioned earlier in the week, it still continues to appear that a fairly significant warm-up is in our future.

The NAEFS 8-14 day temperature anomaly outlook is forecasting above normal temperatures returning to much of North America.
The NAEFS 8–14 day temperature anomaly outlook is forecasting above normal temperatures returning to much of North America.

Both the NAEFS pictured above as well as the American CPC 6–10 Day Outlook are forecasting a strong likelihood of above-normal temperatures returning to our region. Specific solutions vary quite a bit, but in general it appears that a big warm-up is on tap through the second half of next week with temperatures rising into the –5 to 0°C range. Quite warm air is forecast to move into the region aloft, and with no blocking ridge forecast to develop to our east and a generally more progressive flow, there’s even a slight chance that we might see warmth and sun, which would certainly be a pleasant recovery from the past cold snap.

Given that we’re nearly past the coldest part of the year and I can still remember how nice December was temperature-wise, I think it’s safe to say that this winter is a far cry from the brutal cold we had last year.