Tag: Below-Normal Temperatures

A Fairly Pleasant Weekend

Brad Leave a comment

Although temperatures will be a little below normal for foreseeable future, a fairly pleasant few days are on tap for Winnipeg. A ridge of high pressure over the central Prairies will work at clearing out the clouds giving us plenty of sun for Friday and Saturday while winds slowly diminish. A low passing through on Sunday will mark the return of potentially rainy weather.

Friday
19°C / 7°C
Sunny with afternoon clouds. Breezy.

Saturday
18°C / 7°C
Mainly sunny.

Sunday
18°C / 8°C
Cloudy periods with a chance of showers.

Significantly cooler air than seen over the past week is working its way across the Prairies into Southern Manitoba, dropping daytime highs from the the mid-to-high 20s to the high teens. Temperatures will remain roughly 5°C below normal for the next week as a much cooler pattern locks in; daytime highs aren’t expected to reach over 20°C until late into next week.

Today will bring some late morning/afternoon cloud with a breezy west-to-northwesterly wind at around 20-30km/h. Temperatures will reach around 18°C. Expect clearing skies tonight and a low of around 7°C.

Tomorrow will be very similar to today except with a little less cloud and lighter winds. High near 18°C once again and a low near 7°C again.

Showery Sunday?

A weak low pressure system is forecast across Southern Manitoba on Sunday, bringing a renewed chance of showery weather. At this point, it looks like little in the way of particularly active weather will occur; even a rumble of thunder looks out of the question.

Probability matched mean precipitation from the SREF model for Sunday morning.
Probability matched mean precipitation from the SREF model for Sunday morning.

In general, the system is expected to spread some light shower activity from west to east across Southern Manitoba through the morning hours, persisting into the afternoon. Overall amounts look to be low; in the image above, I’ve used a probability matched mean ensemble[1] which can better capture higher amounts embedded within the mean precipitation field, and it still only shows around 2-4mm for most areas.

There are some hints the system may pick up strength and produce 5-10mm over the woods from Pinawa down to Sprague, but it’s still a little too far out to say much reliably.

Sunday won’t be all showers and cloud, though with a good chance of a few sunny breaks through the day. Highs will be near 18°C once again with an overnight low around 8°C.

Heading into next week it looks as if the cooler temperatures will continue with a couple more chances for precipitation through the first half of the week.

  1. For those who are curious, this takes the ensemble mean value, but matches the rain rate distribution in the ensemble mean field to the complete ensemble. Can help prevent “smearing” of the precipitation field.  ↩

Mother Nature Mixes Up Months

Brad Leave a comment

Things will seem decidely early-April as extremely cool air settles in over the eastern Prairies bringing another stretch of days with temperatures some 10-15°C below normal. Seasonal weather doesn’t look to return until the end of the week when the cold air finally begins being shunted off to the east.

Wednesday
7°C / -4°C
Mainly cloudy. Clearing in the evening.

Thursday
10°C / -1°C
A few clouds.

Friday
12°C / 3°C
Mainly sunny. Cloudy periods overnight.

We’ll see a mainly cloudy sky today as we remain stuck under cloud wrapping around the backside of the low pressure system that impacted Winnipeg and the Red River Valley over the weekend and the first half of the week. Accompanying the cloud cover will be extremely cool temperatures for mid-May; the daytime high today will only reach 6 or 7°C, 10-15°C below the seasonal high of 19°C. The cloud cover looks to begin clearing out ovenright as we drop down to a low of -4°C, again nearly 10°C below our seasonal low temperature for this time of year. No precipitation is expected today or tonight.

Tomorrow will bring a few clouds as we sit on the fringe of the organized cloud pushing off to our east and then see some afternoon cumulus clouds develop. Temperatures will moderate a little to around 10°C, however that’s still nearly 10°C below normal for this time of year. We’ll drop to a low of around -1°C overnight under clear skies.

Friday will bring plenty of sunshine with just a few clouds through the afternoon hours. We’ll see a high temperature of around 12°C as milder air continues to slowly push eastwards. There will be a few cloudy periods overnight as a weak disturbance moves thorugh and we’ll see an overnight low near 3°C. Precipitation is unlikely with this disturbance.

Returning to Near-Normal on the Weekend

Things will get back into form by the end of the weekend as the cold trough finally collapses and pushes well off to the east, allowing milder air to spill across the Prairies. Saturday looks like it will have a high somewhere in the mid-teens followed by temperatures near 20°C on Sunday. The weekend looks to be a bit of a mixed bag with sunny skies and relatively light winds on Saturday, but more cloud and stronger winds developing on Sunday as a warm front pushes into the region ahead of a low approaching from Wyoming. Areas all across Southern Manitoba may end up wtih the threat of some showers or rain activity by Sunday aftenroon. We’ll have more details on this system in Friday’s blog post.

Nasty Week Ahead

Brad Leave a comment

After a nice weekend, we’re in for a nasty work-week. More rain and chilly temperatures are on the way.

Rain is expected in south-eastern Manitoba on Monday
Rain is expected in south-eastern Manitoba on Monday

Monday

Monday
9°C / 5°C
Rain

Today will see rainy weather return, or continue, in southern Manitoba, depending on where you live. Western sections of the province should remain mostly dry, but south-eastern sections will be getting wet, as another strong weather system moves up from the south. Rainfall accumulations of 10-20mm are expected in Winnipeg with 15-25mm in areas south-east of the city, including Steinbach. Locally higher amounts are possible in the south-east corner of Manitoba where heavier rain bands will likely develop. The rain will be accompanied by a strong northerly wind, just adding to the misery!

Tuesday

Tuesday
9°C / -1°C
Mix of Sun and Cloud. Chance of Showers.

There may be some lingering rain showers on Tuesday morning in south-eastern Manitoba, and some more pop-up showers in the afternoon, but generally speaking Tuesday will be a dry day. It will also be a fairly crummy day, with a cool airmass of Arctic origins surging southward into the province. High temperatures aren’t likely to crack the double digits in most areas.

Wednesday

Wednesday
8°C / -2°C
Mix of Sun and Cloud. Chance of Showers.

Wednesday will see a continuation of Tuesday’s nasty, cool conditions, with even colder Arctic air surging southward. Once again, temperatures are not expected to reach double-digits, except for maybe far western sections of southern Manitoba. Pop-up showers may develop in the afternoon, just to cap things off!

Long Range

We should see temperatures return to near normal values by the end of the week into the weekend, however no above-normal weather is in store for the foreseeable future.

Unsettled Week Ahead

Brad Leave a comment

Summer weather will continue to elude us as a complicated weather pattern is set to bring more unsettled weather this week. A series of moderate to strong disturbances will move through Southern Manitoba, each bringing a chance for rain. The first major disturbance looks to move through on Tuesday, with a second major disturbance coming through on Wednesday night.

The forecast surface weather pattern on Monday afternoon
The forecast surface weather pattern on Monday afternoon

At this point it appears that each of these pieces of energy will just bring light to moderate rain to parts of southern Manitoba. However, there is always the potential for heavier amounts if convective elements (i.e. thunderstorms) become embedded within the larger area of rain. These disturbances will be coming in from the south-west along a strong jet stream.

This strong jet may also be the focus for severe thunderstorms in the US Great Plains this week, so you may wish to keep tabs on that if you’re a thunderstorm enthusiast!

Monday

Monday
12°C / 5°C
Mix of Sun and Cloud

Today will be seasonably cool, with high temperatures in the low teens. Skies will be a mixture of sun and cloud to mainly cloudy, but at least no precipitation is expected. There will be a breezy south wind during the day, but it shouldn’t be quite as windy as it was on the weekend.

Tuesday

Tuesday
15°C / 6°C
Mainly Cloudy. Showers.

Tuesday is expected to feature showers in much of southern Manitoba. There is also a slight risk of a thundershower, which may lead to isolated pockets of heavier rain. Temperatures will be in the low to mid teens with a south wind once again.

Wednesday

Wednesday
15°C / 2°C
Mainly Cloudy. Chance of Showers.

Wednesday will be, you guessed it, unsettled once again, with the threat of showers remaining in southern Manitoba. Temperatures will be in the low teens, with a light northerly wind.

Long Range

The long range forecast suggests we’ll see warmer temperatures this weekend. By warmer, we’re talking probably upper teens or maybe low twenties. It won’t be anything spectacular, but those values will feel quite warm considering the weather we’ve seen as of late.