Tag: Below-Normal Temperatures

Winter Returns

Brad Leave a comment

Well, it was nice while it lasted. Get settled in for another long stretch of below-normal temperatures.

Friday
-14°C / -20°C
Windy with local blowing snow; chance of flurries.

Saturday
-14°C / -21°C
Breezy with mixed skies.

Sunday
-17°C / -23°C
Mainly sunny.

Today will be the most unpleasant day of the week with strong northwesterly winds at 40-50km/h making our high of -14°C feel more like the mid-minus-twenties and producing local blowing snow through the Red River Valley. Winnipeg will see mixed skies which will work in tandem the low-level temperature profile to produce a chance of some scattered light flurry activity. The strong winds will persist into the evening and slightly ease overnight as we head to a low of about -20°C.

Saturday will bring mixed skies once again with a high near -14°C. Winds will be lighter than today, but still fairly breezy at 20-30km/h. Skies will clear late in the day as we head to an overnight low near -21°C.

Sunday will bring mainly sunny skies and a cooler high of only around -17°C[1]. The winds will be relatively light and we’ll drop down to about -23°C Sunday night.

Winter Returns

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook
NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook

The immense low pressure system that is pushing northwards through the eastern half of Canada will end up re-establishing a large, cut-off low pressure system over Hudson Bay that will lock the Eastern Prairies into a strong north/northwesterly flow. This will work to entrench an Arctic air mass over the region which will result in below-normal temperatures at least until the end of February.

At this point, it looks like it may not be until the second week of March until the icy grip loses it’s hold over the region, but that’s a long way off and I don’t put a lot of faith in those sorts of forecasts. Safe to say we’re going to see another stretch of relatively dry, cool weather through the end of the month.

  1. This is around 10°C below our seasonal daytime high of -7°C for this time of year.  ↩

Cold Weather Continues

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It’s steady as she goes for the next few days with gradually colder weather on tap through the next few days.

Friday
-15°C / -26°C
Cloudy periods.

Saturday
-18°C / -31°C
Cloudy periods.

Sunday
-22°C / -30°C
Sunny. Cold.

We’ll see some clouds this morning but the sun will slowly gain more sky share as clouds break up through the day. We’ll head towards a high of around -15°C with notably lighter winds than yesterday. Tonight will bring partly cloudy skies and a low near -26°C.

We’ll again see some cloudy periods tomorrow, but it looks like overall we’ll see more sun than Friday. Highs will be near -18°C and the overnight low will plummet under clear skies and an incoming Arctic ridge to just under the -30°C mark. Sunday looks to bring sunny skies and cold temperatures with a high only around -22°C. We’ll drop back to -30°C on Sunday night.

No significant pattern changes are in store over the next week, so the cold and relatively quiet weather is going to continue to stick around for a while.

Mixed Bag Ahead

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A bit of a grab bag of unexceptional weather is on it’s way for Winnipeg and the Red River Valley as the cold air’s grip loosens ever so slightly before returning to the region, bringing flurries with it.

Wednesday
-18°C / -25°C
Mixed skies; chance of flurries.

Thursday
-12°C / -20°C
Warmer; cloudy end to the day with some flurries.

Friday
-14°C / -23°C
Mixed skies; chance of flurries.

We’ll see mixed skies today as patchy low cloud continues to stream southwards out of the Arctic across the Prairies. Any of this cloud has the slight chance of producing some fairly insignificant flurries. Our temperature will remain cool today with a high of around -18°C and will drop to around -25°C tonight.

Tomorrow will bring warmer weather as a fairly strong low pressure system moving over Southampton Island manages to push some slightly milder air through the Northern Prairies and southeastwards into Southern Manitoba. We’ll see temperatures climb up to a near-normal high of -12°C or so with mixed skies before the clouds thicken up through the afternoon and some flurries slide into the Red River Valley and southeastern Manitoba. No significant accumulations are expected.

Friday will bring mixed skies once again with a chance of scattered light flurries. Temperatures will only cool off slightly thanks to the cloud cover and we’ll see a high of around -15 or -14°C. Temperatures will drop off to around -23°C or so overnight under mainly clear skies.

Continued Below-Normal Temperatures

The NAEFS 8-14 day temperature outlook is beginning to show signs of near-normal temperatures returning.
The NAEFS 8-14 day temperature outlook is beginning to show signs of near-normal temperatures returning.

Unfortunately, it’s still looking like below-normal temperatures[1] will persist through Southern Manitoba for at least the next week or two. A persistent northerly/northwesterly flow is showing no signs at all of breaking down and will continually reinforce the Arctic air in our region, maintaining the cool weather. While we may see short-lived near-normal breaks, the overall trend will be decidedly cool through the next two weeks. No significant snowfall events are expected through the next week.

Once we hit the 1.5 to 2 week mark, though, things are starting to look like they might begin to moderate a little bit and we might climb a lot closer to normal for mid-February. Any warm-up would likely mean a return to snowier weather as well, so we may see a stormier end to the month than we’ll see through the first half.

  1. The normal daytime high at this time of year in Winnipeg is -10°C. The normal overnight low is -21°C.  ↩

More of the Same

Brad Leave a comment

This week will feature more of the same cold weather we’ve seen lately. I’m sure you’re about as enthused to read that as I was to write it.

Early Week Outlook

Monday
-15°C / -30°C
Mix of Sun and Cloud
Tuesday
-18°C / -29°C
Mainly Sunny
Wednesday
-18°C / -26°C
Mainly Sunny

Today will feature slightly below normal temperatures[1]. Highs will be in the mid to upper minus teens in southern Manitoba with fairly light winds. As a result, the wind chill won’t be a big factor.

Tuesday will be a bit cooler than Monday, but not by a whole lot. Temperatures will sit around -20C with wind remaining relatively light once again.

Wednesday will be close to a carbon-copy of Tuesday. The wind will be a bit stronger on Wednesday though, so you may notice the wind chill factor a bit more – but values aren’t expected to reach “extreme” [2] criteria.

Long Range

The long range forecast calls for continued cold weather.

The long range forecast calls for continued cold weather.

The long range forecast continues to look bleak. Models suggest below-normal temperatures will last through most of the first half of February. There has been some rumblings that the second half of February may feature warmer weather, but that remains to be seen. For the time being, we will remain locked in a cold pattern.

  1. The normal high for this time of year is -10°C and the normal low is -21°C. ↩
  2. Extreme being -40 or colder ↩