Tag: Below-Normal Temperatures

Cold Week Ahead for Winnipeg

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It will be a cold week ahead in the city as the Polar Vortex continues to supply the region with Arctic air.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Thursday February 2, 2023
One last surge of bitter cold will spread across the Prairies for Thursday before this outbreak of Arctic air begins to weaken.

The Polar Vortex will remain entrenched over Canada’s eastern Arctic region this week, sustaining a persist northwesterly flow across the Prairies. This will keep temperatures well below seasonal averages through the rest of the week.

Daytime highs will vary through the week, ranging from a few degrees on the warm side of -20 °C on Wednesday to a much colder high near -25 °C on Thursday. Overnight lows will generally sit in the -25 to -30 °C range, though lows could reach into the -30s tonight.

The slightly warmer weather on Wednesday will be courtesy a weak disturbance moving through the region. It will bring cloud cover and a bit of light snow to the region as it moves through. The bigger impact it will bring to the region will be a strong cold front that sweeps through on Wednesday night. It will bring moderate northerly winds to the region, some blowing snow, and plummeting temperatures.

That cold air mass that moves in behind is what will keep the daytime highs so low on Thursday. Temperatures will likely dip back below -30 °C on Thursday night again.

On Friday, cloudier skies will move into the region as a slow pattern change begins to take shape. Temperatures will likely climb back into the -15 to -20 °C range, but a stiff southerly wind will make it feel pretty cold outside.

Long Range Outlook

I mentioned last week that it looked like the polar vortex would begin to destabilize heading into this weekend. Fortunately, that still looks to be the case; by the end of the week, its structure looks to become far more wobbly and will likely be pulled northwards back towards the pole by the end of the weekend.

As a result, we’ll likely see the worst of the cold leave the region this weekend, leaving behind closer to seasonal temperatures across much of the Prairies. There may be a bit of light snow through this process, but at this time no significant snowfalls are in the forecast.

Layer up and stay warm this week; relief is on the horizon!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -11 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -22 °C.

Here Comes the Deep Freeze

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A surge of bitterly cold Arctic air will send temperatures plummeting across southern Manitoba this weekend. The upside is that the cold weather may not last too long…

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Friday January 27, 2023RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Saturday January 28, 2023
Moderate northerly winds will help a pool of bitterly cold Arctic air surge southwards today. Lows may reach as cold as -30 to -35 °C on Saturday morning.

Much colder weather is on the way to Southern Manitoba in the wake of the snow that moved through yesterday evening. The clipper system that brought a coating of snow to the region was the harbinger ahead of an Arctic air mass dropping southwards into the Prairies. Its approach today will be marked by moderate to strong northerly winds near 40 gusting 60 km/h and gradually cooling temperatures.

The moderate winds, temperatures in the -10 to -15 °C range, and very fluffy snow from yesterday will combine to produce widespread blowing snow through the Red River Valley today. Conditions in Winnipeg will fare better, but even parts of the Perimeter Highway may see deteriorating travel conditions at times today.

Temperatures will continue drop tonight as an Arctic ridge builds into the Prairies. Lows will drop all the way to around -30 °C with mainly clear skies and easing winds.

Saturday will bring sunny skies to the region with a high climbing just short of -20 °C. Winds will stay light through the day. Some cloud cover will build into the region on Saturday night as an upper trough slumps into the area. This will help keep overnight lows a tad warmer, but some of that effect will be offset by a surge of colder air heading into the region as well. The overnight low on Saturday night will likely end up somewhere in the -25 to -30 °C range.

Winnipeg will likely see partly cloudy skies on Sunday with a high a degree or two cooler than Saturday. Skies will clear out for Sunday night and allow overnight lows to likely dip into the -30 to -35 °C range.

Extreme cold warnings are likely at some point over the coming days as the overnight low temperatures will make it fairly trivial to reach -40 wind chill values.

Long Range Outlook

The first half of next week will continue to be cold with daytime highs near -20 °C or colder with mainly sunny conditions. Heading into the second half of the week, though, there may be some improvement.

Long-range weather models all show the driving feature for this cold snap — the Polar Vortex situated over Canada’s Eastern Arctic — weakening towards the end of the week. If that happens, then temperatures would likely moderate with highs into the mid-minus teens by the end of the week. One can hope at least.

Get the long johns and snow pants out, here comes winter!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -12 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -23 °C.

Colder Weather Settles Over Southern Manitoba

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An Arctic high building into the Prairies will bring seasonably cold temperatures and a bit more sunshine to southern Manitoba.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Tuesday December 20, 2022
Cold temperatures will sit entrenched across the Prairies this week.

Colder temperatures are the story this week as a lobe of the polar vortex slumps into the northern Prairies. It will bring with it a persistent northerly flow that will build an Arctic ridge across the Prairies through the week.

Disturbances grazing by the region will bring a mix of sun and cloud to the region this week, but temperatures will be uniformly cold. Daytime highs in Winnipeg will sit near the -20 °C mark through the rest of the week with overnight lows generally in the -25 to -30 °C range.  

With such cold overnight lows, its possible that the region will see extreme cold warnings at times this week for wind chill values dipping to the -40 mark.

No significant snow will fall across the region this week, but a weak disturbance passing by to the south will spread some snow across the region on Wednesday. Accumulations will be minimal with just a centimetre or two possible by the time it tapers off overnight.

Long Range Outlook

Cold conditions will continue into the Christmas weekend, but by Sunday the worst should begin to break. Heading into next week, warmer weather will move into the region along with some more light snow. 

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -11 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -21 °C.

Brief Blast of Bitterly Cold Temperatures Arrives

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A surge of very cold Arctic air is pushing through Manitoba, but it will be short-lived with a return to seasonal temperatures just around the corner.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Wednesday December 7, 2022
Bitterly cold temperatures will settle over southern Manitoba overnight into Wednesday morning. Temperatures form southeastern Saskatchewan across southern Manitoba will drop into the -30 to -40 °C range.

The Polar Vortex has shifted from the High Arctic southwards into Hudson Bay, sending a surge of very cold Arctic air into the Prairies. A weak disturbance will round the base of the Polar Vortex today, spawning a weak low in North Dakota. This low will track eastwards with an inverted trough that runs northwards into Manitoba.

This system will spread cloud and light snow across southern Manitoba today. Most areas will see 1 to 3 cm of snow by the time it tapers off this evening. It will also be cold, with temperatures struggling to rebound into the -15 to -20 °C range, bolstered only by cloud cover.

Skies will clear out tonight as an Arctic high barrels into the province. With clear skies, temperatures will plummet tonight. Winnipeg will see a low in the -30 to -35 °C early Wednesday morning. Fortunately winds will be light, so wind chill won’t be a major factor, inasmuch as it matters when its already so cold.

With the high in place, Wednesday will be clear and cold. Temperatures will recover to around -20 °C by late in the afternoon with increasing southerly winds. Wind chill values will sit in the -30 to -35 range by the evening.

Fortunately, those breezy southerlies are a sign of warmer weather beginning to work its way into the region. Temperatures will rise towards the mid-minus teens on Wednesday nights, the continue climbing towards -10 °C on Thursday.

There will be a bit of cloud around on Wednesday night, but Thursday should bring mainly sunny skies. 

Temperatures will head to a low in the mid-minus teens on Thursday night with increasing cloudiness.

Long Range Outlook

Temperatures will continue to warm on Friday, reaching a high close to -5 °C with mostly cloudy skies. Some light snow is likely on Friday night, but accumulations will be minimal.

That will mark the transition to a much cloudier, but warmer pattern. The region will see plenty of cloud cover through the weekend and into next week, but daytime highs will climb close to the freezing mark.

Some light snow will be possible on several days, beginning Sunday through Tuesday, with a gradual return to near-seasonal temperatures during that period.

So, the forecast is the ol’ Winnipeg dilemma: bone-chilling cold and plenty of sun, or pleasant winter warmth with socked in cloud cover. Hopefully there’s a little bit to like in the forecast for everyone.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -8 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -17 °C.