Tag: Below-Normal Temperatures

Arctic Grip Slowly Eases

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Temperatures will warm in Winnipeg over the coming days as upper-level ridging builds across the Prairies.

There’s still one more day of bitter cold ahead for the city today. The Arctic ridge responsible for the frigid temperatures will slowly shift across the province through the day. This will keep daytime highs again near the -23 °C mark with light winds and sunny skies. Temperatures will quickly dip to around -27 °C this evening, but then moderate slightly as some cloud cover arrives with a push of milder air.

Thursday will bring mixed skies to the city as some morning cloud breaks up for the afternoon. The city will get its reprieve from the cold as temperatures climb to a seasonal high near -12 °C. Winds will be light out of the southeast at 10–20 km/h. This will mark the beginning of a shift into a warmer pattern as the polar vortex consolidates over the high Arctic and Pacific begins to wash over the region. Temperatures will dip to a low near -18 °C on Thursday night with partly cloudy skies.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Friday January 29, 2021
Seasonably mild temperatures will replace the deep freeze over southern Manitoba by Friday.

A warmer air mass will continue to push into the province for Friday, bringing increasing cloudiness with it. Temperatures will climb back to seasonably warm values with a high near -8 °C and winds will pick up out of the southeast again into the 20–30 km/h range. A few flurries are possible, but any snow will likely hold off until overnight. Temperatures will dip to a low near -10°C.

Long Range Outlook

Southern Manitoba will see more cloud and light snow this weekend as an upper trough migrates across the region. Temperatures will stay warm with highs in the mid-minus single digits and early indications suggest snow accumulations of 2–5 cm around the Winnipeg area.

The mild temperatures will stick around into next week, although a return to seasonal temperatures looks possible mid-week with the passage of another low pressure system.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -12 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -23 °C.

Bitter Cold Arrives

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Extremely cold temperatures will stay entrenched over southern Manitoba through the first half of the week.

Winnipeg will see mainly cloudy skies today, supported by a weak inverted trough collapsing southwards into the United States. This cloud cover will bring a few flurries to the region, but most of it will stay south of Winnipeg. In the city, there will a chance for a bit of light snow, but mainly in the morning hours.

The cloud cover won’t help temperatures much. The main story over the coming days will be the bitter cold over the region. Temperatures won’t climb above -20 °C over the next two days, and only nudge above the mark on Wednesday. Overnight lows will be bitterly cold and dip below -30 °C both tonight and Tuesday night. Note that these overnight lows are difficult to forecast; there is a chance that temperatures could dip even colder than this, or stay a bit warmer. The difference in outcomes is subtle, but its worth noting that temperatures of -35 to -40 °C have occurred over western Manitoba into central and northern Saskatchewan. This is the air mass that will move into the Red River Valley today.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 15Z Tuesday January 26, 2021
Bitterly cold temperatures will spread into southern Manitoba over the coming days.

Extreme cold warnings will be likely as it does not take much wind to drive wind chills below -40 with these bitterly cold overnight lows.

Skies will clear out Monday night and stay mainly sunny right through Wednesday. Some cloud will begin working into the region late Wednesday as warmer air starts to move towards the province.

Long Range Outlook

The upper flow supporting the bitterly cold temperatures will collapse in the second half of the week. This will allow milder air to surge back across the Prairies and send temperatures back to seasonal or seasonably mild for the latter half of the week. Comparatively pleasant winter weather will persist through the weekend with a chance for a few centimetres of snow on Saturday.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -12 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -23 °C.

Colder Weather Continues with Chance of Light Snow

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Winnipeg will continue to see cool temperatures through the weekend, but cloudier conditions will bring a chance of light snow to the city.

Clouds streaming southeastwards off Lake Manitoba will bring Winnipeg mixed to mostly cloudy skies to start the day. These bands of lake-effect cloud will also likely produce a bit of light snow, but other than a dusting that makes the roads a little wet. The snow should taper off midday as a ridge of high pressure moves into the region and the northwest winds begin to ease. A bit of sun is likely this afternoon, but temperatures will stay cool with a high near +2 °C.

Tonight, the region will see increasing cloud cover as a low pressure system moves into the Dakotas. This system will bring some light snow to areas along the international border, but Winnipeg should just see some cloud. Temperatures will dip to a low near -5 °C.

Saturday will start with cloudy conditions across the region with temperatures climbing to a high near +2 °C. As the low pushes eastwards out of the Dakotas, northwest winds will strengthen across the region into the 30–40 km/h range. This will result in bands of lake-effect snow redeveloping sometime later in the day into the evening. Winnipeg will likely see cloud and snow from Lake Manitoba by the evening hours and persisting through the night. Winnipeg shouldn’t see much more than a dusting of snow, but areas northwest of the city could see 1–4 cm by Sunday morning. Temperatures will dip to -5 °C on Saturday night with winds easing.

3km NAM Forecast Precipitation Type/Intensity valid 03Z Sunday October 18, 2020
Flurries from Lake Manitoba will move into Winnipeg by Saturday evening.

Winnipeg will continue to see bands of lake-effect cloud and intermittent light snow on Sunday. Temperatures will climb to a high near +2 °C with west-northwest winds in the 20–30 km/h range. Sunday night should bring partly cloudy skies to the region with temperatures heading to a low near -7 °C.

Long Range Outlook

Long-range forecasts continue to show cool weather for Winnipeg. Daytime highs may moderate into the mid-single digits next Tuesday and Wednesday, but then cooler air pushes back into the region with highs falling to the freezing mark by next Saturday. The region will likely see cloudier conditions next week with the occasional chance of light snow.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 10 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 0 °C.

Colder Conditions Arrive

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Today marks the start of an extended period of seasonably cold conditions for Winnipeg.

A low pressure system skirting along the International border will bring cloudy conditions to the Red River Valley today. It will spread an area of rain across the region with up to 10 mm possible along the border. Amounts will quickly diminish northwards, though, with just a bit of light rain likely this morning in Winnipeg. Behind this low, a brisk northerly wind near 30 gusting 50 km/h will develop and usher in a much cooler air mass. Temperatures will only reach around 8 °C today, already several degrees below the seasonal average of 11 °C. The cloud cover will break up a bit tonight as the winds gradually ease. The city will see a low near -3 °C. Hard freezes will be common from here out.

From Thursday forwards, the region will be under a northwest flow aloft on the back side of a persistent vortex over Hudson Bay. This will result in a continued feed of cold Arctic air southwards into the region. Thursday and Friday will bring daytime highs successively colder at +4 and +2 °C respectively. Overnight lows should hover in the mid-minus single digits. Both Thursday and Friday will bring partly cloudy skies to the city and winds will gradually ease from around 30–40 km/h on Thursday to around 20 km/h on Friday. Other than the chance for some lake-effect rain showers or snow in the lee of the lakes — more likely Lake Winnipeg than Manitoba — conditions should stay dry.

Long Range Outlook

The long-range outlook shows nothing but a big vortex entrenched over Hudson Bay. As a result, it also shows nothing but seasonably cold weather for Manitoba. Forecasts show daytime highs locked at the low single digits and overnight lows hovering within a couple degrees of -5 °C.

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid October 21-28, 2020
A stationary vortex over Hudson Bay will bring a prolonged period of cool temperatures to Manitoba. This NAEFS temperature outlook shows a high probability of seasonably cold weather over the province persisting into next week.

The cooler weather towards this coming weekend may end up producing lake-effect snow in the lee of Lake Manitoba in addition to Lake Winnipeg, particularly Friday night into Saturday.

Temperatures may begin to moderate towards seasonal values slightly next weekend (October 24–25), but confidence is low right now.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 11 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 0 °C.