Tag: Benign Weather

Temperatures Warming Back up This Weekend

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After a couple cooler and unsettled days, sunnier skies and warmer weather will build back into southern Manitoba this weekend.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Saturday September 7, 2024
Significantly warmer temperatures will begin to spread east across the Prairies on Saturday.

To wrap up the work week, Winnipeg will start the day with mixed skies and a slight chance of showers. A weak disturbance over the region this morning will bring that chance of unsettled weather, but it will dissipate as the day wears on. Winnipeg will likely see mixed skies continue into the afternoon as temperatures climb to around 20 °C.

Temperatures will head to a low in the 5–10 °C range tonight with light winds and clear skies.

Heading into the weekend, an upper ridge will build across the Prairies, bringing heat back to the region. Southerly winds will increase into the 20–30 km/h range on Saturday with highs pushing back into the mid-20s. The city should see partly cloudy to mixed skies through much of Saturday, but no chance of rain.

Winds will ease on Saturday night as skies clear and temperatures head down into the low teens.

On Sunday, temperatures will climb back up into the upper 20s with light winds and sunny skies. It will cool down overnight back to the low teens again.

Long Range Outlook

The upper ridge will continue to pump heat into the region to start next week, sending daytime highs close to around 30 °C. Much of next week will bring seasonably hot conditions with highs mainly in the 25–30 °C range.

There’s little to no chance of rain until the second half of the week, but the most likely chance for rain will develop towards the weekend when the upper ridge begins to break down and cooler temperatures begin to push back into southern Manitoba.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 20 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 8 °C.

Weather Settling Through the Weekend in Southern Manitoba

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Seasonal temperatures will return to southern Manitoba as a ridge of high pressure begins to build into the region from the west.

RDPS 10m Wind Forecast valid 21Z Saturday August 31, 2024
A passing disturbance will usher in moderate northwest winds across southern Manitoba on Saturday.

Warmer temperatures return to Winnipeg and area today as westerly winds continue across the region. Daytime highs will climb back into the mid-20s today as warmer weather bounces back into the region behind the low that moved through yesterday. The wind will be persistent out of the west today near 30 gusting 50 km/h, then ease in the evening. The entire region will see plenty of sunshine today.

The low tonight will dip down into the low teens.

On Saturday, an upper-level disturbance will rotate through the region, bringing mixed skies to the region and a chance of showers. The rain looks to mainly stay north of Winnipeg with decreasing likelihood further south. As the disturbance passes through, it will usher in moderate northwest winds up to 40 gusting 60 km/h across the Red River Valley. This will keep daytime highs near-seasonal in the low 20s.

There is a chance with both the tail end of the westerlies today and the northwesterlies on Saturday that smoke may move into the Red River Valley. It’s unclear how thick any of those smoke plumes would be, though it looks more likely that Saturday would bring a more noticeable smoke plume into the region for a time.

The winds will taper off on Saturday evening with clearing skies and an overnight low that dips into the upper single digits.

A broad ridge of high pressure will move across southern Manitoba on Sunday, bringing light winds, clear skies, and seasonal highs in the low 20s.

Long Range Outlook

A southerly flow will redevelop early next week and bring warmer weather back into the region with highs climbing back into the upper 20s. It does not look like there will be an appreciable chance of rain in the first half of the week, but the chance for mid-week thunderstorms can’t be ruled out at this point.

Enjoy the weekend!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 22 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 10 °C.

Settled but Smokey Weather Ahead

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A broad area of high pressure moving through the northern Prairies will bring seasonal conditions to the Winnipeg area this weekend. Unfortunately, northerly winds will also bring several plumes of wildfire smoke through the region over the coming days.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Saturday August 17, 2024
This weekend will bring light winds and seasonal temperatures to much of the southern Prairies.

The Winnipeg area will get a chance to dry out after yesterday’s soaking as the slow-moving system responsible for it trundles towards the Great Lakes. Behind it, a ridge of high pressure will build in from the north as an area of high pressure moves into northern Manitoba this weekend.

This pattern change will bring partly cloudy to mixed skies to the area over the next few days with daytime highs in the mid-20s and overnight lows in the mid- to upper-teens. Winds will stay northerly over the next few days, up to around 30 km/h today then easing to 20 km/h or less for the weekend.

There is a low chance of a brief rain shower this afternoon due to lingering instability, then it will stay dry through the weekend.

The bigger issue in the days ahead will be plumes of wildfire smoke that descend through the region in the northerly winds.

CAMS PM2.5 forecast valid 17Z Friday August 16, 2024
The CAMS air quality model shows a broad plume of elevated PM2.5 values from wildfire smoke through much of Saskatchewan and western Manitoba today.

Today, dense plumes of smoke will move through portions of western Manitoba and Saskatchewan, sourced from wildfires over west-central Manitoba and northern Saskatchewan. Additionally, a secondary plume from wildfires in the Island Lake region in northeast Manitoba will drift southwest across the southern Interlake into the southwest corner of the province.

For Winnipeg, smoke models are trending towards keeping the smoke west and north of the city, but there is a chance that the city is caught by the edge of the plume this afternoon. If that happens, AQHI values will likely climb into the 6 to 8 range for the afternoon with improvement on Friday evening across the Red River Valley and western Manitoba.

CAMS PM2.5 forecast valid 23Z Saturday August 17, 2024
On Saturday, a potentially dense plume of wildfire smoke will drift towards the Red River Valley from the fires near Island Lake in NE Manitoba.

Heading into Saturday, a dense plume of smoke is forecast to drift from the Island Lake fires southwest into the Red River Valley. Unfortunately, if this happens the plume will end up stalling out under the ridge of high pressure over the Red River. This plume is forecast to arrive by Saturday afternoon and persist through midday Sunday before clearing. AQHI values with this plume could be as high as 10+.

AQHI values of 4 to 7 suggest that people with sensitivities to air quality should consider reducing their exposure. When values reach 7 to 10, all should consider reducing their exposure. AQHI values of 10 or higher are unhealthy and everybody should minimize their exposure.

Long Range Outlook

The ridge of high pressure will shift to the east on Monday, bringing southerly winds back to the region. Temperatures will climb back into the upper-20s with mainly sunny skies. The southerly winds will push wildfire smoke back northwards, bringing cleaner air to the southern Prairies and worse air quality to the northern Prairies.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 25 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 12 °C.

Temperatures Warming Back up Over the Weekend

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An Arctic high will bring one more day of cool weather to Winnipeg, but warmer temperatures will build back in through the weekend.

RDPS 10m Wind Forecast valid 21Z Friday August 9, 2024
A sprawling Arctic high will be the dominant weather feature over the eastern Prairies this weekend.

An Arctic high will sit entrenched over the eastern Prairies over the next few days, gradually weakening as the cool air over the region gradually warms. This will result in a simple forecast for Winnipeg: gradually increasing sunniness with warming temperatures.

Skies will improve from mixed skies today to partly cloudy skies on Saturday to mainly sunny skies on Sunday. Northerly winds in the 20–30 km/h range today will ease tonight; heading into the weekend the winds will be light out of the northwest on Saturday and the west on Sunday.

Temperatures will be cool today as the region is under the remains of the cold air core from the low that passed into the region earlier this week. Temperatures will climb to around 20 °C today in Winnipeg, return to seasonal values on Saturday in the low to mid-20s, then climb into the mid- to upper-20s on Sunday.

Overnight lows will slowly climb through the weekend into the mid-teens as more seasonal levels of humidity build back in.

Long Range Outlook

The start of next week will continue to bring warm and settled weather to the region as the area of high pressure over the region continues to weaken and gradually drift to the southeast. The chance of showers or thunderstorms may return mid-week, but settled conditions will likely return quickly with near-seasonal temperatures.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 13 °C.