After a rainy weekend we’ll have a chance to dry out this week as skies clear. Temperatures will be cool, but generally near seasonal values.
Cool and windy conditions are expected on Monday in southern Manitoba
This Week
Today will see mainly sunny skies as the low pressure system from the weekend moves off to the east. However, it will remain quite windy behind the system with northwesterly winds of 40 km/h gusting to 60 km/h. Temperatures will sit in the mid teens over most of southern Manitoba. There will be a slight risk of frost in low-lying areas tonight as temperatures drop rapidly with the light northwesterly flow.
Tuesday will see slightly improved weather over today as winds calm down and temperatures climb up into the mid teens. Skies will also remain mainly sunny, making for a generally pleasant day.
Wednesday should be one of the warmest days this week. Temperatures are expected to climb up near the 20C mark under light southerly winds and mainly sunny skies.
Long Range
Long range models hint at another strong low pressure system developing to our west later this week. It remains unclear if and when this system may affect us, but it likely won’t be until the weekend at the earliest. The good news is that this system will draw up a warm, southerly flow, perhaps giving us a brief stretch of warm weather before it arrives.
In the wake of yesterday’s cold front that brought some wild weather to Manitoba yesterday afternoon & evening, conditions will be significantly more benign as a ridge of high pressure moves into the Red River Valley and brings dry weather with seasonal temperatures.
There is not too much to say for today’s forecast post. Mainly sunny skies will dominate the region today as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the northwest behind yesterday’s cold from that moved across the region.
A ridge of high pressure aligned through Saskatchewan into southwestern Manitoba will bring benign weather to the region.
Winds will be breezy at 20-30 km/h first thing this morning, but will fairly quickly taper off into the 15-20 km/h range. Winds will remain light through Wednesday.
Temperatures will be fairly steady with daytime highs around 23-24°C all 3 days. Overnight lows will be cool, in the 9-11°C range on Monday night and Tuesday night, however slightly milder air begins working in on Wednesday night, bumping the overnight low up towards the mid-teens.
No precipitation is expected. Skies will be mainly sunny both today & Tuesday, however a little more cloud is expected on Wednesday, with sunny skies likely giving way to more mixed conditions in the afternoon.
Long Range
The second half of the week looks to bring warmer conditions back into the region with daytime highs climbing back towards the 27 or 28°C mark with variable cloudiness. Friday evening into Saturday looks to be the first chance of any more precipitation, with thunderstorms possible. At this point, it looks most likely that they would occur overnight into Saturday morning.
So a very pleasant week ahead with little precipitation; it’s nice to finally give some good news!
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 22°C while the seasonal overnight low is 9°C.
Calm weather is expected in Winnipeg and across the Red River Valley over the next few days, a welcome reprieve from the severe thunderstorm activity that moved through the region on Wednesday.
Today will be an improvement over the cool and blustery conditions that moved through the Red River Valley yesterday. While skies will be mixed remain mixed, temperatures will be a couple degrees warmer than Thursday with a high temperature near 23°C. Gusty winds will remain out of the northwest at 20-30 km/h.
Temperatures will dip down to around 13°C tonight with partly cloudy skies.
Saturday will be a very pleasant day as a ridge of high pressure moves over the province. Winnipeg & the Red River Valley will see daytime highs near 25°C under mainly sunny skies and light northwesterly winds. Temperatures will dip down to around 13°C once again on Saturday night under clear skies.
A ridge of high pressure will bring sunshine to Southern Manitoba on Saturday.
Sunday will bring warmer weather back to the Red River Valley as the ridge moves off to the east, winds switch around to the south, and a warm front begins lifting northwards out of the United States. As the warm front moves into the province through the day, skies will become gradually mixed with temperatures climbing into the upper 20s. Fortunately, despite the southerly flow, it appears that the humidity will be kept at bay and the weekend will be ending with warm, comfortable conditions instead of another muggy mess.
Long Range
Early indications are that our nice dry weather will come to an end early next week as yet another low pressure system tracks out of the northern United States and into the southeastern Prairies. This system will spread another batch of thunderstorm activity across southern Manitoba with the main event on Monday night into Tuesday.
The GDPS is forecasting a swath of 30-50mm across Southern Manitoba on Monday night through Tuesday.
Initial indications are that severe weather may also be possible with this system as moderate CAPE values1 combine with 35-45 kt of bulk shear, which in this timeframe certainly indicates the potential for organized thunderstorms with, at a minimum, the potential for large hail. Ultimately we’ll simply have to wait until later in the weekend for clarifying details on what this system early next week will entail.
It’s getting to be a tiring summer to be the weather messenger, with every tiny stretch of nice weather being cut short by the looming news of more thunderstorms. It’s been an incredibly active summer over Southern Manitoba, and one can only hope that we transition into a pattern of more stable, drier weather in the coming weeks.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 26°C while the seasonal overnight low is 13°C.
CAPE is a measure of the energy available to a thunderstorm. ↩
In what seems like an almost unbelievable stroke of luck this year, hot and dry weather will continue throughout the second half of the work week for Winnipeg and the Red River Valley.
We finally get a bit of a break here at A Weather Moment with not just one, but two (!) short blog posts in a row as a ridge of high pressure dominates the weather over the Red River Valley.
Today and tomorrow will both be pleasant days with daytime highs near 25 and 27°C respectively and overnight lows near 13°C. Winds will be fairly light out of the north both days. Skies will be partly to mainly sunny.
By Friday, a low pressure system pushing eastwards across Saskatchewan will begin spreading cloud across Southern Manitoba. While some shower activity is possible over southwestern Manitoba, nothing is expected here in the Red River Valley. Temperatures will climb to a high near 28°C with winds fairly light out of the south. Lows will be near 16°C on Friday night.
Long Range
The weekend brings back the potential for some wet weather as a slow-moving low pressure system moves across the region. There's still a fair amount of uncertainty associated with this system, however, so this will be more of a generalized outlook.
The GDPS is forecasting a swath of 10-35mm near the US border Friday night through Saturday night.
Current guidance suggests the development of a slow-moving area of rain through North Dakota on Friday night which will have the northern edge extending into Southern Manitoba. This system will very slowly move eastwards through Saturday, spreading rain across the Southern Red River Valley. Guidance suggests that the bulk of the rain would leave the region on Saturday night with 10-35mm of rain having fallen in the heaviest hit areas on the Canadian side of the border. Sunday would then bring just a slight chance of showers.
Again, there is a substantial amount of uncertainty associated with this system at this point and a slight shift north or south could dramatically alter the amount of precipitation expected.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 26°C while the seasonal overnight low is 13°C.
