Tag: Benign Weather

Hot, Dry Weather Ahead

Brad Leave a comment

In what seems like an almost unbelievable stroke of luck this year, hot and dry weather will continue throughout the second half of the work week for Winnipeg and the Red River Valley.

We finally get a bit of a break here at A Weather Moment with not just one, but two (!) short blog posts in a row as a ridge of high pressure dominates the weather over the Red River Valley.

Today and tomorrow will both be pleasant days with daytime highs near 25 and 27°C respectively and overnight lows near 13°C. Winds will be fairly light out of the north both days. Skies will be partly to mainly sunny.

By Friday, a low pressure system pushing eastwards across Saskatchewan will begin spreading cloud across Southern Manitoba. While some shower activity is possible over southwestern Manitoba, nothing is expected here in the Red River Valley. Temperatures will climb to a high near 28°C with winds fairly light out of the south. Lows will be near 16°C on Friday night.

Long Range

The weekend brings back the potential for some wet weather as a slow-moving low pressure system moves across the region. There's still a fair amount of uncertainty associated with this system, however, so this will be more of a generalized outlook.

The GDPS is forecasting a swath of 10-35mm near the US border Friday night through Saturday night.
The GDPS is forecasting a swath of 10-35mm near the US border Friday night through Saturday night.

Current guidance suggests the development of a slow-moving area of rain through North Dakota on Friday night which will have the northern edge extending into Southern Manitoba. This system will very slowly move eastwards through Saturday, spreading rain across the Southern Red River Valley. Guidance suggests that the bulk of the rain would leave the region on Saturday night with 10-35mm of rain having fallen in the heaviest hit areas on the Canadian side of the border. Sunday would then bring just a slight chance of showers.

Again, there is a substantial amount of uncertainty associated with this system at this point and a slight shift north or south could dramatically alter the amount of precipitation expected.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 26°C while the seasonal overnight low is 13°C.

Calmer and Drier to Start the Week

Scott Leave a comment

We will be in a much drier and calmer pattern early this week as an upper ridge of high pressure build over western North America. This should provide many areas an opportunity to dry out after what has been an exceptionally wet pattern over the past two months.

An upper ridge of high pressure over western North America will bring drier weather to southern Manitoba
An upper ridge of high pressure over western North America will bring drier weather to southern Manitoba

This Week

Today will be a nice day in southern Manitoba. High temperatures will climb up near the 30C mark in most areas under mainly sunny skies. Winds will be westerly near 20 km/h, offering a bit of natural air conditioning from the heat of the day.

Tuesday will see a bit of a cool-down from today as a cold front brings a cooler air mass to the region. However, it won’t be a significant cool-down, as high temperatures will remain in the mid twenties. Winds will shift to northerly at around 20 km/h. Skies will be a mixture of sun and cloud as some high-level cloud moves through the region.

Wednesday will see temperatures once again in the mid twenties under a mixture of sun and cloud. Winds will be light as we sit within a slack surface pressure regime.

Long Range

The long range forecast shows us remaining under the influence of high pressure aloft until at least the end of the week. This should generally mean warm and dry conditions, although the odd thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. It doesn’t appear that an organized precipitation should be expected until next week, although some models hint at perhaps a semi-organized convective system affecting border regions midweek. However, it’s too early to say if such a system may transpire.

Drier Weather to Start the Week

Scott 1 Comment

This week will start out on a drier note after the heavy rains of the weekend left many parts of southern Manitoba in a very soggy state.

Mild and breezy weather is expected in southern Manitoba on Monday
Mild and breezy weather is expected in southern Manitoba on Monday

This Week

Today will be mainly sunny with temperatures climbing into the low twenties. The sunshine will be welcomed by many in southern Manitoba as it will give a chance for many water logged areas to dry out. Winds will be northwesterly at 20-30 km/h.

Tuesday will feature much the same weather as today, with temperatures in the low twenties and mainly sunny skies. Winds will be a bit lighter however, making it an even better day.

Wednesday’s weather is the most uncertain of the early week period. Most models suggest southern Manitoba will see mainly sunny conditions with temperatures in the mid twenties. However, an area of precipitation is expected to pass to our south. Should the forecast shift that precipitation northward, we could see more rain. At this time that does not appear likely, but it is something to bear in mind.

Long Range

The long range forecast continues to show us in a generally above-seasonal pattern through the end of June. However, we are also forecast to remain near the storm track through month’s end, suggesting more wet weather may be on the way later this month. Forecasting weather in the long range can be quite difficult in summer, so unfortunately you’ll just have to take the conditions as they come to some extent.

Beautiful Start to the Week, but More Rain is Coming

Scott Leave a comment

This week will get off to a great start, with warm temperatures and sunny skies. However, more rain is on the way Tuesday night as the next low pressure system moves into the region.

Warm weather is expected in southern Manitoba today
Warm weather is expected in southern Manitoba today

The Week

Today will be a great day in southern Manitoba. High temperatures in the mid to upper twenties are expected with sunny skies. Winds will be light from the west. Today may end up being one of the nicer days this week, so enjoy it!

Tuesday will see temperatures in the mid twenties, but with increasing cloudiness through the day as a low pressure system begins moving into the region. Winds will be breezy out of the south-east at 20 km/h gusting to 40 km/h ahead of this system. Rain is expected to move into southern Manitoba on Tuesday night with this next system.

Wednesday will see rain ending from the aforementioned low pressure system. At this potential rainfall accumulations remain uncertain, so check back tomorrow for more details. Once the rain ends skies will remain mainly cloudy with temperatures in the upper teens. Winds will be from the north at 20-30 km/h.

Long Range

The long range forecast shows warmer weather returning late this week. Models are also hinting at our next risk of thunderstorms developing on Thursday and/or Friday with the approach of an upper trough moving in from western North America. We’ll have more details about this risk later in the week. Besides the thunderstorm risk, long range models generally show above seasonal temperatures for the remainder of June, although some cooler stretches are likely to be interspersed with the warmer ones.