Tag: Benign Weather

Calmer and Drier to Start the Week

Scott Leave a comment

We will be in a much drier and calmer pattern early this week as an upper ridge of high pressure build over western North America. This should provide many areas an opportunity to dry out after what has been an exceptionally wet pattern over the past two months.

An upper ridge of high pressure over western North America will bring drier weather to southern Manitoba
An upper ridge of high pressure over western North America will bring drier weather to southern Manitoba

This Week

Today will be a nice day in southern Manitoba. High temperatures will climb up near the 30C mark in most areas under mainly sunny skies. Winds will be westerly near 20 km/h, offering a bit of natural air conditioning from the heat of the day.

Tuesday will see a bit of a cool-down from today as a cold front brings a cooler air mass to the region. However, it won’t be a significant cool-down, as high temperatures will remain in the mid twenties. Winds will shift to northerly at around 20 km/h. Skies will be a mixture of sun and cloud as some high-level cloud moves through the region.

Wednesday will see temperatures once again in the mid twenties under a mixture of sun and cloud. Winds will be light as we sit within a slack surface pressure regime.

Long Range

The long range forecast shows us remaining under the influence of high pressure aloft until at least the end of the week. This should generally mean warm and dry conditions, although the odd thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. It doesn’t appear that an organized precipitation should be expected until next week, although some models hint at perhaps a semi-organized convective system affecting border regions midweek. However, it’s too early to say if such a system may transpire.

Drier Weather to Start the Week

Scott 1 Comment

This week will start out on a drier note after the heavy rains of the weekend left many parts of southern Manitoba in a very soggy state.

Mild and breezy weather is expected in southern Manitoba on Monday
Mild and breezy weather is expected in southern Manitoba on Monday

This Week

Today will be mainly sunny with temperatures climbing into the low twenties. The sunshine will be welcomed by many in southern Manitoba as it will give a chance for many water logged areas to dry out. Winds will be northwesterly at 20-30 km/h.

Tuesday will feature much the same weather as today, with temperatures in the low twenties and mainly sunny skies. Winds will be a bit lighter however, making it an even better day.

Wednesday’s weather is the most uncertain of the early week period. Most models suggest southern Manitoba will see mainly sunny conditions with temperatures in the mid twenties. However, an area of precipitation is expected to pass to our south. Should the forecast shift that precipitation northward, we could see more rain. At this time that does not appear likely, but it is something to bear in mind.

Long Range

The long range forecast continues to show us in a generally above-seasonal pattern through the end of June. However, we are also forecast to remain near the storm track through month’s end, suggesting more wet weather may be on the way later this month. Forecasting weather in the long range can be quite difficult in summer, so unfortunately you’ll just have to take the conditions as they come to some extent.

Beautiful Start to the Week, but More Rain is Coming

Scott Leave a comment

This week will get off to a great start, with warm temperatures and sunny skies. However, more rain is on the way Tuesday night as the next low pressure system moves into the region.

Warm weather is expected in southern Manitoba today
Warm weather is expected in southern Manitoba today

The Week

Today will be a great day in southern Manitoba. High temperatures in the mid to upper twenties are expected with sunny skies. Winds will be light from the west. Today may end up being one of the nicer days this week, so enjoy it!

Tuesday will see temperatures in the mid twenties, but with increasing cloudiness through the day as a low pressure system begins moving into the region. Winds will be breezy out of the south-east at 20 km/h gusting to 40 km/h ahead of this system. Rain is expected to move into southern Manitoba on Tuesday night with this next system.

Wednesday will see rain ending from the aforementioned low pressure system. At this potential rainfall accumulations remain uncertain, so check back tomorrow for more details. Once the rain ends skies will remain mainly cloudy with temperatures in the upper teens. Winds will be from the north at 20-30 km/h.

Long Range

The long range forecast shows warmer weather returning late this week. Models are also hinting at our next risk of thunderstorms developing on Thursday and/or Friday with the approach of an upper trough moving in from western North America. We’ll have more details about this risk later in the week. Besides the thunderstorm risk, long range models generally show above seasonal temperatures for the remainder of June, although some cooler stretches are likely to be interspersed with the warmer ones.

A Stretch of Beautiful Summer Weather

Brad

Winnipeg will see plenty of sun and warmth as the first deep southerly flow of the year develops this week, advecting warm and increasingly humid air northwards from the Great Plains of the United States into Manitoba.

The coming days will be bring beautiful summer weather with plenty of sunshine and temperatures soaring into the mid-20's. This afternoon will also bring breezy southerly winds to around 30-40km/h. We'll see just a few clouds today as a weak disturbance moving into Manitoba from the western Prairies slowly falls apart.

RDPS Temperature Forecast valid Thursday Afternoon
The RDPS shows warm summer-like temepratures across the Prairies on Thursday.

Thursday and Friday will both be sunnier days with winds out of the south at 20-30km/h. Thursday will be the windier of the two with gusts in the 40-50km/h range possible, while Friday will see winds more steady and a bit lighter. For both days, the high will be near 26 or 27°C.

Nights will be much milder than we've seen lately with overnight lows in the 12-15°C range.

Of note, and a significant change from what we've seen so far this year, is that this prolonged period of southerly winds will finally bring some more humid air into the region as moisture from the Great Plains of the United States. By the end of Friday, dewpoints will have climbed from near 0°C into the upper single digits. While we won't notice a significant difference in how it feels, it will certainly alleviate some of the moisture stress for plants which could help improve the fire danger in the region.

Long Range: 2016's First Humid Days?

For the weekend, the weather will continue distinctly summery with high temperatures climbing into the upper 20's. Along with the continued warmth, those southerly winds will continue to push moisture northwards and begin pushing dewpoint values towards something that may actually begin to feel humid. By the end of Saturday, it is forecast that the dewpoint will climb to around 12-13°C which is a fairly typical summer value for the region. On Sunday, however, a surge of humidity is expected to push into Manitoba, bringing dewpoint values into the 15-17°C range, which will begin to feel a bit humid when combined with a high near 29°C.

GFS Surface Dewpoint Forecast valid Sunday Evening
The GFS shows clearly this weekend’s stream of humidity from the Gulf of Mexico northwards through the Great Plains into Southern Manitoba.

With the humidity will also come unsettled weather. It's far to early to get into many specifics, but beginning on Sunday afternoon, the chance for thunderstorms will make an appearance across Southern Manitoba. Early indications are that there may be a slight chance for severe thunderstorms with a primary threat of severe hail. We'll be sure to keep an eye on things as they develop and provide a more in-depth outlook in our Friday post.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 20°C while the seasonal overnight low is 6°C.