Tag: Benign Weather

A Stretch of Beautiful Summer Weather

Brad

Winnipeg will see plenty of sun and warmth as the first deep southerly flow of the year develops this week, advecting warm and increasingly humid air northwards from the Great Plains of the United States into Manitoba.

The coming days will be bring beautiful summer weather with plenty of sunshine and temperatures soaring into the mid-20's. This afternoon will also bring breezy southerly winds to around 30-40km/h. We'll see just a few clouds today as a weak disturbance moving into Manitoba from the western Prairies slowly falls apart.

RDPS Temperature Forecast valid Thursday Afternoon
The RDPS shows warm summer-like temepratures across the Prairies on Thursday.

Thursday and Friday will both be sunnier days with winds out of the south at 20-30km/h. Thursday will be the windier of the two with gusts in the 40-50km/h range possible, while Friday will see winds more steady and a bit lighter. For both days, the high will be near 26 or 27°C.

Nights will be much milder than we've seen lately with overnight lows in the 12-15°C range.

Of note, and a significant change from what we've seen so far this year, is that this prolonged period of southerly winds will finally bring some more humid air into the region as moisture from the Great Plains of the United States. By the end of Friday, dewpoints will have climbed from near 0°C into the upper single digits. While we won't notice a significant difference in how it feels, it will certainly alleviate some of the moisture stress for plants which could help improve the fire danger in the region.

Long Range: 2016's First Humid Days?

For the weekend, the weather will continue distinctly summery with high temperatures climbing into the upper 20's. Along with the continued warmth, those southerly winds will continue to push moisture northwards and begin pushing dewpoint values towards something that may actually begin to feel humid. By the end of Saturday, it is forecast that the dewpoint will climb to around 12-13°C which is a fairly typical summer value for the region. On Sunday, however, a surge of humidity is expected to push into Manitoba, bringing dewpoint values into the 15-17°C range, which will begin to feel a bit humid when combined with a high near 29°C.

GFS Surface Dewpoint Forecast valid Sunday Evening
The GFS shows clearly this weekend’s stream of humidity from the Gulf of Mexico northwards through the Great Plains into Southern Manitoba.

With the humidity will also come unsettled weather. It's far to early to get into many specifics, but beginning on Sunday afternoon, the chance for thunderstorms will make an appearance across Southern Manitoba. Early indications are that there may be a slight chance for severe thunderstorms with a primary threat of severe hail. We'll be sure to keep an eye on things as they develop and provide a more in-depth outlook in our Friday post.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 20°C while the seasonal overnight low is 6°C.

Sunny Skies and Warm Temperatures this Week

Scott Leave a comment

This week will feature a return sunny skies and warm temperatures, weather that we haven’t seen a lot of over the last week.

A surface high over Manitoba will bring sunny skies and mild temperatures
A surface high over Manitoba will bring sunny skies and mild temperatures

This Week

Today will be one of the cooler days this because we’ll still be in the coolish air mass leftover from the surge of arctic air late last week. However, high temperatures will still be in the upper teens under mainly sunny skies. Winds will be from the north as we’ll still be on the western edge of an upper trough, but the wind should shift to a southerly component on Monday night.

Tuesday will see even warmer conditions as temperatures climb into the low twenties. An upper ridge will begin building over southern Manitoba, which means Tuesday will be the first of many seasonably warm days. Winds will be light on Tuesday and skies are expected to remain sunny.

The forecast for Wednesday is a bit more uncertain than Monday and Tuesday because a shortwave trough is expected to push through southern Manitoba. It doesn’t appear this trough will bring any rain to southern Manitoba, but it may bring additional cloud cover to the region. Assuming the cloud cover isn’t too extensive, temperatures should climb into the mid-twenties with breezy south winds.

Long Range

The long range forecast suggests that the remainder of May will generally remain warmer than normal. One interesting feature of the long range forecast that bears watching is the potential for our first notable thunderstorm event of the year. Models have been consistent in bringing a large upper trough into western North America by next weekend, which is expected to draw a warm, moist air mass into southern Manitoba. The exact nature of the thunderstorm threat for southern Manitoba remains quite uncertain, but it appears possible we may see our first thunderstorm event of the year at some point on the long weekend.

Beautiful Start to May

Scott Leave a comment

May is getting off on the right foot, with sunny skies and mild temperatures expected this week. No major precipitation is expected either, helping to continue the drying process after our heavy April rains.

Today will be one of the warmest days of the year thus far, as temperatures climb above the 20C mark. High temperatures in the 21-23C range are generally expected. Skies will be mainly sunny, with only some light upper cloud cover rolling through. Light winds and dry soil should develop superadiabatic profiles near the surface, helping to ensure we warm as much as possible today. There isn’t much else to be said about today’s conditions, so enjoy it!

Very pleasant conditions are expected in southern Manitoba today
Very pleasant conditions are expected in southern Manitoba today

Tuesday will feature a slight cool-down as a cold front passes through early in the morning. You’ll notice that this front has passed because winds will be brisk throughout the day, with speeds of 40 km/h gusting to 60 km/h out of the north. Temperatures won’t drop too much though, with highs still expected to be in the mid teens under sunny skies.

Wednesday will see temperatures hovering in the mid teens once again, but the gusty winds from Tuesday will have died down. Skies are expected to remain sunny as we will be under the influence of a surface high pressure system.

Long Range

Long range models suggest that the first half of May will generally see above-seasonal temperatures. A large upper ridge is expected to remain over Western Canada, helping to keep our skies sunny and temperatures mild. There is no indication yet about how the second half of May will fare, but it appears the month as a whole will end up being warmer than normal.

Dull, Dry Weather Continues

Brad Leave a comment

The weather will be nothing if not reliable over the coming days as the uneventful weather continues bringing seasonal temperatures to Southern Manitoba.

The coming 3 days will bring sunny skies to Southern Manitoba with seasonal temperatures and relatively light winds. Today and Saturday will both see high temperatures near 15°C with overnight lows in the 1-2°C range. Slightly warmer weather will move in on Sunday with temperatures climbing into the upper teens with daytime highs near 18°C. Winds will be out of the north to north-east today and Saturday, at 20-30km/h. With the warmer weather on Sunday, winds should be calm out of the northwest-to-west.

Staying Dry

While the mild, dry weather is pleasant for many people, with spring moving into full swing, the desire for a little rain will be increasing, especially from the agricultural community. Unfortunately for us, the odds of any significant precipitation over the coming week is slim.

NAEFS Probability of > 5mm of Accumulated Rainfall between April 29 and May 6, 2016
NAEFS Probability of > 5mm of Accumulated Rainfall between April 29 and May 6, 2016

Looking ahead over the next week, the NAEFS is painting a dry picture. Above shows a probability of locations seeing a total of 5mm of rain or more through April 29 to May 5th. While it’s a foregone conclusion over the western and eastern Coasts, here in the middle it’s showing essentially a 0% chance of it. 2mm is also similarly bleak, with only a 30-50% chance.

This means that the odds of anything that might actually soak the ground at all is nil. Moving past next week into the 2-4 week period, it looks like we’ll head back towards a "seasonal" chance for precipitation, but no major soakers are on the horizon. Alongside the dry weather, however, will likely be some warmer weather as upper-level ridging gradually builds in over the region.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 15°C while the seasonal overnight low is 2°C.