Calm weather is expected in Winnipeg and across the Red River Valley over the next few days, a welcome reprieve from the severe thunderstorm activity that moved through the region on Wednesday.

Today will be an improvement over the cool and blustery conditions that moved through the Red River Valley yesterday. While skies will be mixed remain mixed, temperatures will be a couple degrees warmer than Thursday with a high temperature near 23°C. Gusty winds will remain out of the northwest at 20-30 km/h.

Temperatures will dip down to around 13°C tonight with partly cloudy skies.

Saturday will be a very pleasant day as a ridge of high pressure moves over the province. Winnipeg & the Red River Valley will see daytime highs near 25°C under mainly sunny skies and light northwesterly winds. Temperatures will dip down to around 13°C once again on Saturday night under clear skies.

Sunday will bring warmer weather back to the Red River Valley as the ridge moves off to the east, winds switch around to the south, and a warm front begins lifting northwards out of the United States. As the warm front moves into the province through the day, skies will become gradually mixed with temperatures climbing into the upper 20s. Fortunately, despite the southerly flow, it appears that the humidity will be kept at bay and the weekend will be ending with warm, comfortable conditions instead of another muggy mess.

Long Range

Early indications are that our nice dry weather will come to an end early next week as yet another low pressure system tracks out of the northern United States and into the southeastern Prairies. This system will spread another batch of thunderstorm activity across southern Manitoba with the main event on Monday night into Tuesday.

Initial indications are that severe weather may also be possible with this system as moderate CAPE values¹ combine with 35-45 kt of bulk shear, which in this timeframe certainly indicates the potential for organized thunderstorms with, at a minimum, the potential for large hail. Ultimately we’ll simply have to wait until later in the weekend for clarifying details on what this system early next week will entail.

It’s getting to be a tiring summer to be the weather messenger, with every tiny stretch of nice weather being cut short by the looming news of more thunderstorms. It’s been an incredibly active summer over Southern Manitoba, and one can only hope that we transition into a pattern of more stable, drier weather in the coming weeks.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 26°C while the seasonal overnight low is 13°C.

We will be in a much drier and calmer pattern early this week as an upper ridge of high pressure build over western North America. This should provide many areas an opportunity to dry out after what has been an exceptionally wet pattern over the past two months.

This Week

Today will be a nice day in southern Manitoba. High temperatures will climb up near the 30C mark in most areas under mainly sunny skies. Winds will be westerly near 20 km/h, offering a bit of natural air conditioning from the heat of the day.

Tuesday will see a bit of a cool-down from today as a cold front brings a cooler air mass to the region. However, it won’t be a significant cool-down, as high temperatures will remain in the mid twenties. Winds will shift to northerly at around 20 km/h. Skies will be a mixture of sun and cloud as some high-level cloud moves through the region.

Wednesday will see temperatures once again in the mid twenties under a mixture of sun and cloud. Winds will be light as we sit within a slack surface pressure regime.

Long Range

The long range forecast shows us remaining under the influence of high pressure aloft until at least the end of the week. This should generally mean warm and dry conditions, although the odd thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. It doesn’t appear that an organized precipitation should be expected until next week, although some models hint at perhaps a semi-organized convective system affecting border regions midweek. However, it’s too early to say if such a system may transpire.

This week will start out on a drier note after the heavy rains of the weekend left many parts of southern Manitoba in a very soggy state.

This Week

Today will be mainly sunny with temperatures climbing into the low twenties. The sunshine will be welcomed by many in southern Manitoba as it will give a chance for many water logged areas to dry out. Winds will be northwesterly at 20-30 km/h.

Tuesday will feature much the same weather as today, with temperatures in the low twenties and mainly sunny skies. Winds will be a bit lighter however, making it an even better day.

Wednesday’s weather is the most uncertain of the early week period. Most models suggest southern Manitoba will see mainly sunny conditions with temperatures in the mid twenties. However, an area of precipitation is expected to pass to our south. Should the forecast shift that precipitation northward, we could see more rain. At this time that does not appear likely, but it is something to bear in mind.

Long Range

The long range forecast continues to show us in a generally above-seasonal pattern through the end of June. However, we are also forecast to remain near the storm track through month’s end, suggesting more wet weather may be on the way later this month. Forecasting weather in the long range can be quite difficult in summer, so unfortunately you’ll just have to take the conditions as they come to some extent.