The warm weather bathing over southern Manitoba shows no end in sight as daytime highs above freezing will remain in place for the next week, absolutely rocketing past the seasonal high temperatures near -8°C.

The coming days will be dominated by a broad zonal flow over the southern Prairies that will maintain the unseasonal warmth over the region and continue to keep the Arctic air bottled up north. Mainly sunny skies over the coming days will help produce daytime highs near 3 or 4°C, some 10°C above normal for this time of year.  While we likely won’t be hitting record high temperatures—which range from +5-12°C for the coming days—this period of warmth is nonetheless remarkable for early December.

For the coming days, temperatures will remain at least 8°C above normal for this time of year.  The prolonged period of warmth will result in a gradual erosion of the snowpack over the majority of the Red River Valley.

With little-to-no snow in the forecast, there’s a decent chance that by the start of next week, there’s a lot more bare ground showing around the Winnipeg area.

Other than the warm temperatures, there’s little to talk about in the forecast.  Today will be a fairly windy day with southerlies increasing through the day to around 40-50 km/h this afternoon. Winds will subside tonight and remain relatively light through the weekend. Overnight lows will sit in the -2 to -4°C range.

Long-Range Outlook

Nothing but warmth.

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast valid December 12-19, 2015

CPC 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast valid December 11-17, 2015

Both the NAEFS and the CPC show very high probabilities of above-normal temperatures continuing through the coming week or two. Little-to-no precipitation is expected.

Enjoy the beautiful weather!

Beautiful Start to December Continues

A foggy start today will be the minor blip in what looks to be a beautiful second half of the week, and start to meteorological winter, as the mild weather shows no end in sight.

The forecast for the remainder of the work week is pretty straightforward: beautiful with warm and sunny weather.

This morning will be the one blip over the next few days as fog over the region gradually burns off. After that, we’ll see mainly sunny conditions over the coming days with temperatures slowly warming as a train of low pressure systems tracking across the Northern Prairies drag warmer air eastwards across the Prairies.

Winds will be calm today, however pick up through the remainder of the week. Thursday will see westerly winds around 20–30 km/h while Friday will see gusty southerlies at 30–40 km/h.

By Friday, daytime highs will be 10°C or more above seasonal values with the potential for substantial snow-melt through much of the Red River Valley.

Weekend Outlook & Beyond

The mild weather will continue into the weekend with daytime highs slightly above 0°C expected throughout much of the Red River Valley. Saturday will likely be the nicest day of the week with daytime highs of 2–4°C and some breezy westerlies. Sunday will be a bit cooler with lighter winds.

Looking further ahead, the NAEFS continues to remain very confident in above normal temperatures for the region. With no indication that the Polar Jet has any plans to shift further south, out of the Northern Prairies, it seems fairly safe to go with the NAEFS forecast. Early indications are that we can expect daytime highs next week in the range of –2°C to +2°C or so with little in the way of precipitation.