Staying on the Cool Side

Temperatures will remain on the cooler side early this week, although values won’t be far from seasonal.

Today will be a mixture of sun and cloud with temperatures in the mid minus teens. Some mid and upper level cloud cover will likely be in place during the morning, but may begin to clear out by the afternoon – although Winnipeg may be on the edge of this transition. Winds will be breezy from the south-east.

Tuesday will see temperatures near seasonal values under mainly cloudy skies. High temperatures will sit in the low minus teens with a light northerly wind.

Wednesday will be much the same as Tuesday, with temperatures in the low minus teens and mainly cloudy skies. Winds will be light from the west or north-west.

Long Range

Long range models suggest a return to warm weather around New Years. El Nino is reaching peak strength as we approach mid-winter and thus its impacts will continue to be pronounced through the remainder of winter.

Exceptional December Warmth Continues

The warm weather bathing over southern Manitoba shows no end in sight as daytime highs above freezing will remain in place for the next week, absolutely rocketing past the seasonal high temperatures near -8°C.

The coming days will be dominated by a broad zonal flow over the southern Prairies that will maintain the unseasonal warmth over the region and continue to keep the Arctic air bottled up north. Mainly sunny skies over the coming days will help produce daytime highs near 3 or 4°C, some 10°C above normal for this time of year.  While we likely won’t be hitting record high temperatures—which range from +5-12°C for the coming days—this period of warmth is nonetheless remarkable for early December.

For the coming days, temperatures will remain at least 8°C above normal for this time of year.  The prolonged period of warmth will result in a gradual erosion of the snowpack over the majority of the Red River Valley.

MODIS (Aqua) True Colour Satellite for December 3, 2015
MODIS (Aqua) True Colour Satellite for December 3, 2015

With little-to-no snow in the forecast, there’s a decent chance that by the start of next week, there’s a lot more bare ground showing around the Winnipeg area.

Other than the warm temperatures, there’s little to talk about in the forecast.  Today will be a fairly windy day with southerlies increasing through the day to around 40-50 km/h this afternoon. Winds will subside tonight and remain relatively light through the weekend. Overnight lows will sit in the -2 to -4°C range.

Long-Range Outlook

Nothing but warmth.

Both the NAEFS and the CPC show very high probabilities of above-normal temperatures continuing through the coming week or two. Little-to-no precipitation is expected.

Enjoy the beautiful weather!

Beautiful Start to December Continues

Beautiful Start to December Continues

A foggy start today will be the minor blip in what looks to be a beautiful second half of the week, and start to meteorological winter, as the mild weather shows no end in sight.

The forecast for the remainder of the work week is pretty straightforward: beautiful with warm and sunny weather.

This morning will be the one blip over the next few days as fog over the region gradually burns off. After that, we’ll see mainly sunny conditions over the coming days with temperatures slowly warming as a train of low pressure systems tracking across the Northern Prairies drag warmer air eastwards across the Prairies.

Winds will be calm today, however pick up through the remainder of the week. Thursday will see westerly winds around 20–30 km/h while Friday will see gusty southerlies at 30–40 km/h.

By Friday, daytime highs will be 10°C or more above seasonal values with the potential for substantial snow-melt through much of the Red River Valley.

Weekend Outlook & Beyond

The mild weather will continue into the weekend with daytime highs slightly above 0°C expected throughout much of the Red River Valley. Saturday will likely be the nicest day of the week with daytime highs of 2–4°C and some breezy westerlies. Sunday will be a bit cooler with lighter winds.

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast valid December 10 to 17th, 2015
NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast valid December 10 to 17th, 2015

Looking further ahead, the NAEFS continues to remain very confident in above normal temperatures for the region. With no indication that the Polar Jet has any plans to shift further south, out of the Northern Prairies, it seems fairly safe to go with the NAEFS forecast. Early indications are that we can expect daytime highs next week in the range of –2°C to +2°C or so with little in the way of precipitation.

Pleasant Week Ahead

Pleasant weather is on tap this week as we see a fair amount of sunshine and above-seasonal temperatures.

A low pressure system will sit just south of Manitoba early in the week
A low pressure system will sit just south of Manitoba early in the week

Monday

Today will see mainly sunny skies and mild temperatures. The daytime high will be just below zero with light southerly winds. A strong low pressure system will be bringing precipitation to portions of the Dakotas and Minnesota early this week, so you’ll want to check the forecast if you’re heading south.

Tuesday

Tuesday will see much the same weather as Monday. Skies are expected to remain mainly sunny, with high temperatures in the mid single digits. If the system to the south pushes a bit further north we may see more cloud cover, but that is not expected to be the case at this point. Winds will be north or north-westerly at 20 km/h.

Wednesday

Wednesday will once again feature mainly sunny skies and mild temperatures. Temperatures will be just below zero, with breezy southerly winds at 20 km/h.

Long Range

The long range forecast continues to strongly suggest above-normal weather for the first half of December. The current weather pattern over North America is very typical of El Nino, with warm conditions across the western half of Canada and an active storm track across the southern US. Expect this pattern to continue as we move further into winter.