This week will see somewhat cooler conditions than what we experienced on the weekend, but temperatures will remain above-seasonal nonetheless.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler this week as cooler air floods in from the north
Monday
Monday
3°C / -3°C
Mainly cloudy
Today will be mainly cloudy as extensive upper cloud moves through southern Manitoba. Some precipitation will pass to our south early in the day, potentially giving us a light shower or flurry. Temperatures will certainly be cooler than the record “heat” of Sunday, but with highs in the low single digits, conditions will still be above-seasonal. A chilly north wind will be responsible for ushering in these cooler conditions and also add a slight wind chill factor throughout the day.
Tuesday
Tuesday
2°C / -5°C
Mix of sun and cloud
Tuesday will be similar to Monday temperature-wise, but it should be a sunnier day. Skies will be a mix of sun and cloud with breezy north-west winds. A light shower or flurry will be possible due to some low-level instability developing, but any accumulations will be small.
Wednesday
Wednesday
4°C / -6°C
Mix of sun and cloud
Wednesday will once again see temperatures in the low single digits under a mixture of sun and cloud. There is a slight chance of a shower or flurry again, though the chance will be lower than on Tuesday. Winds will be light and from the south.
Long Range
The long range forecast suggests we should see generally above-seasonal conditions for the rest of the month. Now that our snow cover is gone the ground can effectively absorb solar radiation, converting it to sensible heat. As the ground dries out this process will become even more efficient. Our normal temperatures will gradually increase over the next few weeks, meaning that above-seasonal weather today will become more normal by month’s end. There is no sign of any significant precipitation in the forecast at this time, so flooding should remain minimal in the Red River Valley this spring.
Temperatures will be on their way up over the next few days as the coldest air slides off to our east allowing temperatures to finally rebound to more pleasant levels. No significant snow is expected, either, so it looks like Winnipeg will actually have a fairly nice weekend coming up!
Friday
-11°C / -22°C
Mainly sunny
Saturday
-11°C / -18°C
Partly cloudy
Sunday
-6°C / -15°C
Morning cloud with a chance of flurries
The next two days will be near carbon-copies of each other as a ridge of high pressure lingers through Southern Manitoba. Both days will feature mainly sunny skies, relatively light winds and highs near –11°C. Tonight’s low will be near –22°C and Saturday night’s low will be moderated somewhat by some cloud moving in and fall to around –18°C.
Sunday looks to start the morning with mainly cloudy skies with a slight chance of some very light flurry activity as a trough of low pressure moves through. Skies will then clear through the remainder of the day as temperatures climb to a seasonal –6°C. Temperatures will drop to around –15°C on Sunday night.
The CPC 6-10 day temperature anomaly outlook shows another shot of below-normal temperatures.
Looking ahead to the long-range, it seems like we’ll see another shot of cold air bringing below-seasonal temperatures next week and then moderate towards a potentially longer stretch of more seasonal temperatures. Little precipitation is expected.
Seasonal weather will be in place over the Red River Valley this weekend with dry conditions and comparatively mild temperatures.
Friday
-9°C / -14°C
Mixed skies and breezy
Saturday
-6°C / -8°C
Increasing cloud with late-day wind
Sunday
-3°C / -9°C
Cloudy and mild
Today will be the least pleasant day of the weekend with temperatures climbing to around -9°C with somewhat gusty northwesterly winds – around 30km/h with gusts closer to the 40-50km/h mark – ushering cooler air than we had yesterday. While we’ll see a fair amount of cloud today clearing out in the afternoon, no snow is expected. Temperatures will dip to the mid-minus teens tonight as winds taper off.
Saturday looks like a fairly pleasant day. A ridge of high pressure over the region will bring mainly sunny skies and a high near -6°C. Winds will begin picking up out of the south a little later in the day, making it feel a bit colder but limiting our overnight low to just around -8°C or so. Some light snow is possible late Saturday afternoon into the evening hours ahead of a warm front gradually lifting northwards through the night.
Sunday will be a very mild day that starts off with somewhat unpleasant southeasterly winds. By late morning or early afternoon it looks like the winds will die off and the temperature will climb to a very balmy high of around -2 or -3°C. Some snow is possible in the afternoon, but it looks like the bulk of the precipitation will remain to the north and east of the Red River Valley, with just a light dusting of snow possible. Temperatures on Sunday night continue mild with lows near -9°C.
Pattern Change Next Week Brings More Mild Weather
As we mentioned earlier this week, a major pattern shift covering much of North America will occur through the early half of next week that will move most of the continent into an above-average temperature regime for an extended duration.
The general gist of the pattern evolution is this: over the next few days, a very strong frontal zone over the northern Pacific will shift eastwards alongside a train of upper-level disturbances reflected at the surface by a very intense low pressure system – bottoming out today at 950mb or so. This intense low will become stacked east of the Aleutians and absorb several weaker, more disorganized disturbances, becoming a very impressive, large storm over the northeastern Pacific. This intense system will build an upper-level ridge over western North America, beginning the push of warm air. The second key ingredient is the evolution of the polar vortex that has been anchored over Hudson Bay for the last few weeks.
By this weekend, shown here in the GDPS 500mb height & vorticty forecast, several very potent low pressure systems – marked by the letter L – will begin building a ridge over western North America while the polar vortex – shown by “PV” – begins a slow trek eastwards.
Fortunately, a powerful low pressure system heading up the east coast with teleconnections to the polar vortex will help “push” the vortex from its resting place and rapidly shunt it eastwards over Greenland. This is the second key ingredient because the polar vortex over Hudson Bay[1] is what anchors the eastern Prairies into a northwesterly to northerly flow for such long periods of time, reinforcing colder air and shunting warmer air to our south. With the vortex skipping town, the arctic jet stream will retreat northwards and the warm air spreading northeastwards with the upper ridge will be able to spread eastwards across the Prairies unhindered.
It’s a very interesting situation that highlights how stable the ridge-trough pattern that is so common is; in order for us to be kicked out of this pattern that has brought us a very cold November, we need very potent, significant storms on both coasts at the same time disrupting the upper-level pattern enough to get things moving again.
Within the warming pattern, we’ll see relatively warm and cool spells as disturbances ripple across the Prairies , but overall it looks quite dry in the Red River Valley as daytime highs climb into the -5 to 0°C through the second half of next week with the possibility of above-zero temperatures late into the week through the weekend. different from
Its worth noting given how much press the term “polar vortex” gets lately that this is a completely normal feature that is dominant over Hudson Bay for huge swaths of winter every single year. ↩
There’s no question about it: the biggest upcoming weather story is the big warm-up that’s in store not just for Winnipeg & the Red River Valley, but much of North America. After one more cold night tonight, temperatures will move towards seasonal values by the end of the week and then push towards above-normal by the end of the weekend. Given that November just finished up as the 22nd coldest on record that was some 4°C below normal[1], news of a prolonged warmer trend is likely very welcome news for many.
Wednesday
-15°C / -20°C
Mainly sunny; becoming partly cloudy in the evening
Thursday
-8°C / -15°C
Mix of sun and cloud
Friday
-9°C / -15°C
Mix of sun and cloud
Medium-range model consensus is showing high agreement in an above-normal temperature trend through the first half of December.
Today will be a relatively cool day courtesy a cold front that passed through Southern Manitoba overnight. Daytime highs will sit near -15°C through the Red River Valley today under mainly sunny skies and relatively light west to northwesterly winds. A ridge of high pressure moving through the region tonight will help temperatures dip to a chilly -20°C overnight.
Southerly winds will develop through the Red River Valley in advance of an approaching warm front quickly advancing across the Prairies. The winds – climbing to only around 20-30km/h – will help our overnight low as relatively “mild” as it is as well as begin ushering in warmer air. Temperatures will climb to around -8°C by Thursday afternoon as the winds gradually diminish under mixed skies. Temperatures will dip to the -15°C on Thursday night.
Looking to the end of the week, Friday appears to be a near-copy of Thursday with light winds, mixed skies and a high of -9 or -8°C and a low once again near -15°C.
Seasonal to slightly above seasonal temperatures will continue through the weekend alongside a slight chance for some light snow.
We’ll have our own climate summary on the fall of 2014 up later this month. ↩
