After a few dud events over the region snow is finally on its way to the Red River Valley, but exact amounts are still uncertain.

It’s been a complex weather situation over the Red River Valley over the past few days. The snow we earlier this week did develop as expected, and in fact, over the past few days was visible on RADAR as it streamed northwards over the region. But a stubborn Arctic High entrenched over northern Manitoba complicated things substantially.

This high was pumping copious amounts of cool, dry air into the northerly flow over the region which was pushed underneath the snow lifting northwards. This dry air ended up evaporating most of the snow before it managed to reach the surface. As a result, we saw little to no snow through the region over the past few days despite it falling a few thousand feet above ground.

This setup continues today, with cloudy skies and a slight chance of flurries. Temperatures will reach a high near -2 °C this afternoon, the d up down into the -5 to -10 °C range tonight.

The third system we talked about in our last forecast is now developing in the west and will begin bringing snow to Saskatchewan tonight and then spread across Manitoba on Saturday. The snow will begin in Winnipeg mid- to late-morning on Saturday and persist to the evening before beginning to ease. Moderate easterly winds up to 40 gusting 60 km/h will accompany the snow, producing blowing snow across the region in the afternoon.

There is still some uncertainty with snowfall totals. Like with the previous systems, weather models have struggled to fully capture the impact of the Arctic High entrenched over the Northern Prairies. As a result, model runs have been slowly shifting the expected track of this system further south over the past few days, reducing the amount of snow over many parts of the Prairies. But the models do seem to be stabilizing their tracks, and it looks reasonable at this point that Winnipeg will likely see 5 to 10 cm of snow with this system.

Further south, snowfall totals could rise quickly, especially along the western escarpment where snow will be enhanced by the persistent easterly winds. Heading southwards through the Red River Valley, accumulations will likely increase into the 10 to 20 cm range. The higher snowfall amounts coupled with the strong winds could result in very poor travel conditions, particularly near the International Border, on Saturday afternoon.

Temperatures will hover around -6 °C on Saturday, then dip down close to -10 °C on Saturday night.

Some light snow will linger through Saturday night and then taper off on Sunday. Temperatures will linger in the -5 to -10 °C range through the day under cloudy skies, then dip to a low in the -15 to -20 °C range overnight as skies clear.

Long Range Outlook

In the wake of this system, skies should clear as cooler air floods into the region. Seasonably cool temperatures will move into the region to start the week with highs generally in the -5 to -10 °C range.

Another disturbance will move into the region mid-week and could bring some more accumulating snow to the area along with warmer seasonal temperatures.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -2 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -12 °C.

Below-normal temperatures will stick around through the Christmas weekend, but a warm-up is on the horizon.

While temperatures in Manitoba haven’t quite compared to the extreme cold anchored over Alberta and impacting much of western Canada, the region continues to see seasonably cold conditions. Fortunately for our region, it won’t get too much worse than seen so .

The detached lobe of the Polar Vortex that has brought such bitter cold to the western Prairies is now spinning its way into eastern Canada and is set to bring a significant winter storm to the region. As it departs, temperatures will cool slightly here in Manitoba, followed by a gradual warming trend.

Daytime highs will hover around the -20 °C mark for the next few days in Winnipeg with increasing sunshine later today into Saturday. Lows will generally sit in the -25 to -30 °C range, but there’s a chance of a sub-minus 30 reading.

Wind chill will be a bit of an issue the next couple days with moderate northwest winds of 30 to 40 km/h. Wind chill values will hover in the -30 to -40 range much of the next couple days.

Those winds will also bring some blowing snow to the region. Today will be the worst for it, with blowing snow possible in most of the open areas in the Red River Valley. Lighter winds into Saturday will make it a more localized issue then.

On Sunday, some cloud will push into the region as a disturbance dives through the region. Snow will push through western portions of the province, likely staying west of the Red River Valley as it struggles against the colder air. Temperatures will climb into the mid-minus teens with light winds, making for a relatively pleasant Christmas Day afternoon across southern Manitoba. Temperatures will dip into the -20 to -25 °C range on Sunday night.

Long Range Outlook

The Arctic air will lose its grip on the region as next week progresses with daytime highs climbing close to -5 °C by mid-week. 

Some light snow will accompany the warm-up; on Tuesday night, a band of 5 to 10 cm is likely across WestMan and the Interlake with lesser amounts near 2–4 cm in Winnipeg. If this system ends up a bit further south, the main band of snow could end up falling along the Trans-Canada Highway corridor.

The milder weather will last for the rest of the week, then slid back towards seasonal values to start off the new year. Happy holidays!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -12 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -22 °C.

Temperatures will cool through the weekend as light snow lingers on the back-side of the departing Colorado Low.

The Colorado Low that brought accumulating snow to the region over the past few days is gradually trundling eastwards, but its slow departure will mean both gradual cooling and lingering snow. In Winnipeg, this means cloudy conditions with periods of light snow over the next few days.

Accumulations will be relatively light over the next few days at just a couple centimetres or so each day. But with cooling temperatures, the persistent north wind and drier snow will result in plenty of blowing and drifting snow.

Temperatures will slide to around -10 °C this afternoon, then continue to drop over the next day. Expect lows around -12 °C tonight, then temperatures continue to slide into the mid-minus teens on Saturday.

Temperatures will stabilize for Sunday into Monday at seasonably cool values, but there will continue to be a chance of light snow.

Long Range Outlook

Heading into next week, a major pattern change is underway across the Prairies. A lobe of the Polar Vortex will detach and slump into the Prairies, bringing with it much colder temperatures. Beginning early next week, temperatures in southern Manitoba will begin to plummet. Daytime highs will fall into the -20s with overnight lows dipping close to -30 °C.

That stretch of colder weather will likely last much of the week, but some moderation back towards seasonal temperatures looks to be in store by the weekend.

At least we should see the sun more next week!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -10 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -20 °C.