We’ll see warm weather to start the week before arctic air quickly returns for Tuesday.
Today will be significantly warmer than the weather of the past several days
Monday
Monday
-1°C / -16°C
Flurries
Today will be the warmest day of the week and the warmest day we’ve seen in awhile. Temperatures will be around the freezing mark by late in the day as a milder western flow moves across southern Manitoba. That westerly flow will be quite brisk as winds reach 40km/h gusting to 60km/h. We’ll also see some light flurries during the day, although accumulations will be small.
Tuesday
Tuesday
-14°C / -26°C
Mainly Sunny
Tuesday will be a cooler, but less windy day. High temperatures will be in the mid minus teens with a breezy north-west wind. Skies should be fairly sunny, so overall conditions won’t be too bad.
Wednesday
Wednesday
-19°C / -30°C
Mix of sun and cloud
Wednesday will see temperatures drop further as another arctic high builds in from the north. High temperatures will be around the -20C mark, with variable skies. There will be a slight chance of flurries due to some low-level instability, but they will be very hit and miss.
Long Range
The long range forecast continues to look very cold. A series of high pressure system will continue to drop down from the north, bringing continued bursts of arctic air. On a happier note, meteorological winter is almost over, so we can only go up from here!
After a couple weeks of frigid conditions, a warm-up is on the way. However, we’ll have to deal with another couple days under an arctic air mass before warmer weather arrives.
Monday morning will be extremely cold in southern Manitoba
Monday
Monday
-22°C / -26°C
Mainly Sunny
Today will be very cold in southern Manitoba. Morning low temperatures will be in the minus thirties, with daytime highs remaining stuck in the minus twenties. The wind will gradually pick up throughout the day, slowly adding a more significant wind chill factor. We’ll be under a strong surface high pressure system, so at least it will be sunny!
Tuesday
Tuesday
-18°C / ⇑ -15°C
Mainly Cloudy
Tuesday will be the last really cold day for awhile. Morning temperatures will be in the minus twenties, with a gusty south wind, making it feel closer to -40. Temperatures will slowly rise during the day, reaching the upper minus teens by late in the day. The wind will remain gusty though, so it will still feel pretty cold. However, temperatures will continue to rise on Tuesday night as that southerly flow brings in warmer air, setting up much nicer weather for Wednesday.
Wednesday
Wednesday
-2°C / -10°C
Mainly Cloudy
Wednesday will finally feature that long-promised warm-up. Temperatures will climb into the low-minus single digits (maybe even up to 0C in some areas). Unfortunately, it will be a cloudy day, but I’m sure most people will take the warmer conditions over a bit of sun.
Long Range
The long range forecast continues to show a prolonged period of warmer weather beginning this week. The average high at this time of year is -13C, so that does not mean every day will be near the freezing mark, but most days should be in the minus single digits.
This week will start out scary cold, as it continues to feel more like January than early December.
Monday morning will be extremely cold in southern Manitoba
Monday
Monday
-20°C / → -20°C
Mainly Sunny
This morning will likely feature the coldest temperatures we’ve seen so far this winter. Temperatures will slowly climb toward minus twenty the day, but a gusty south wind will begin to develop as well. By the afternoon the wind will be 40km/h gusting to 60km/h, putting wind chill values in the mid to upper minus thirties. That gusty south wind will also generate patches of heavy blowing and drifting snow in open areas.
Tuesday
Tuesday
-12°C / -20°C
Mix of sun and cloud
Tuesday will be significantly nicer than Monday. Temperatures will be in the minus teens, but the wind will be light and from the west…just that fact alone will make it feel a lot warmer!
Wednesday
Wednesday
-12°C / -25°C
Mainly Sunny
Wednesday will feature much the same weather as Tuesday. Temperatures will once again be in the minus teens, but with a slightly stronger west wind. There may be a few flurries early on Wednesday morning, but nothing of great significance.
Long Range
Long range guidance suggests we’ll see less extreme conditions develop as we move into December. Models are hinting at an upper ridge building over the Prairies about a week or so into December. That doesn’t necessarily mean it will be warm, but conditions that are closer to normal, or perhaps even above-normal should become more prevalent.
A winter storm that is bringing all manner of treacherous weather to Alberta[1] will extend into Manitoba today and tomorrow in what could only be considered “a complicated setup.” Snow will arrive in multiple batches as weak upper-level impulses slide west-to-east across the province along a very strong mid-level warm front before the main low pressure system works its way into North Dakota spreading a final area of snow across Southern Manitoba alongside gusty northerly winds and colder temperatures. The whole system will push off into Ontario for Sunday leaving clear skies and cold weather to round out our weekend.
Friday
-11°C / ⇒ -11°C
Mainly cloudy with a chance of flurries; snow overnight
Saturday
⇓ -17°C / -22°C
Snow tapering off to a chance of flurries
Sunday
-19°C / -28°C
Clearing and cold
Environment Canada has issued snowfall warnings for the Parkland & Interlake regions.
While snow falls over Western Manitoba today, it will be a bit of a different story here in Winnipeg & the Red River Valley as some scattered morning flurry activity gives way to a fairly cloudy day with just a slight chance of some more scattered flurries. By late in the afternoon, however, more organized snow will begin building into the Red River Valley from the northwest, spreading southeastwards through the night.
This particular shot of snow will be courtesy of a very strong warm front in the mid-levels of the atmosphere that has been producing exceptionally snowy conditions in Alberta & Saskatchewan. Snow will continue through much of the night (a few breaks in the snow are possible) and into Saturday morning.
On Saturday, a strong cold front will push through the Red River Valley midday. This will lead to another distinct shot of snow associated with the cold front and the mixing zone behind it.[2] By the time all is said and done, around 5-10cm will likely have fallen here in Winnipeg and through much of the Red River Valley. If things really go off the rails, little could be seen as the first band of snow remains further north and the second band of snow passes to our south, but I don’t think that outcome is likely.
The “most probable” snowfall totals from the morning of Friday November 28th to the evening of Saturday November 29th, 2014.
The snowfall winners will be through Parkland Manitoba and the Interlake, where general amounts of 15-20cm are expected. Due to the terrain in the Parkland, up to a foot of snow could potentially fall in any areas prone to upslope enhancement.[3] The snow will taper off from northwest to southeast through Saturday afternoon.
Daytime highs today will range from around -10°C near the international border to -11°C here in Winnipeg to the mid-minus teens in the northern Interlake westwards into the Swan River region. Temperatures will remain fairly steady tonight through the Red River Valley, perhaps dropping a degree or two. Tomorrow will bring falling temperatures throughout the province as that cold front sweeps through; by the end of the afternoon temperatures will likely have dropped to around -17°C or so and then continue on an overnight low dropping into the -20 in range.
Sunday will bring clear and cold conditions to Winnipeg & Southern Manitoba. Highs will climb just above -20°C before dropping back down into the low -20s on Sunday night.
At one point yesterday, Environment Canada had issued winter storm warnings, heavy snowfall warnings, freezing drizzle advisories, and snow squall watches simultaneously for various parts of Alberta. ↩
It’s not uncommon to have what’s known as a “mixing zone” behind strong cold fronts in the winter time; the intense temperature contrast between the Arctic air and the air its replacing can result in as much as several hundred kilometers of low cloud and light-to-moderate snow in the wake of the front. ↩
…which essentially means anyone near the Riding Mountains or the escarpment. ↩
