Tag: Cold front

Record Setting Heat Across the Prairies

Brad Leave a comment

Summer has decided to hang on and not leave us quite yet, bringing record-breaking heat to much of the Canadian Prairies. A large upper ridge build into the region on Tuesday and Wednesday, pushing the jet stream all the way up to the 60th parallel which has allowed a hot, dry southwest flow to remain in place over Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba for days on end. Records have fallen left in right, with some of the highest daily quantities of records being broken at once over the last two days.

How long will this heat stay with us? How hot is it going to get? Click through to read more!

On Wednesday, September 7th, 22 record highs were broken across Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba:

Daily Record Temperatures set September 7, 2011

Location New
Record		 Old
Record		 Record
Year		 Records
Began
Alberta
Cold Lake 30.4 27.8 1998 1953
Fort Chipewyan 27.0 25.0 1937 1884
Fort McMurray 31.0 28.3 1949 1944
Jasper 29.6 29.1 1998 1943
Whitecourt 29.1 26.7 1949 1943
Saskatchewan
Saskatoon 33.4 31.5 1990 1892
Collins Bay 28.0 18.8 1980 1972
Hudson Bay 30.7 30.2 1990 1943
Key Lake 30.0 21.5 2005 1977
La Ronge 29.6 27.7 1980 1923
Meadow Lake 30.2 28.5 1998 1924
Melfort 31.7 31.5 1980 1902
Nipawin 33.0 32.2 1934 1927
North Battleford 33.0 32.2 1893 1880
Rosetown 32.6 32.0 1991 1937
Stony Rapids 27.0 22.7 2005 1960
Manitoba
Fisher Branch 29.7 29.5 1980 1977
Gimli 28.3 27.9 1980 1944
Lynn Lake 29.0 23.9 1980 1952
The Pas 30.3 29.4 1934 1910
Thompson 27.6 24.5 1990 1967

Of note on this day:

  • North Battleford broke a daily record high temperature that was set in 1893, a record 118 years old.
  • Many record highs were broken by at least 2 or 3°C, and some by nearly 10°C.

On Thursday, September 8th, 22 record highs were broken across Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba:

Daily Record Temperatures set September 8, 2011

Location New
Record		 Old
Record		 Record
Year		 Records
Began
Alberta
Cold Lake 30.8 29.8 1981 1953
Coronation 32.2 31.2 1981 1928
Fort McMurray 32.1 30.4 1981 1944
High Level 27.4 26.3 1995 1967
Jasper 30.0 29.8 1998 1943
Sundre 26.9 26.0 1994 1985
Waterton Park 28.3 28.0 1994 1966
Saskatchewan
Saskatoon 34.1 33.5 1981 1892
Collins Bay 24.6 24.1 1981 1972
Hudson Bay 31.7 30.2 1990 1943
Kindersley 33.2 32.8 1981 1913
Leader 34.2 33.5 1981 1924
Nipawin 32.8 32.2 2003 1927
Stony Rapids 24.1 22.3 2003 1960
Manitoba
Fisher Branch 32.1 32.0 2003 1977
Gimli 31.1 30.0 2003 1944
Island Lake 28.1 25.2 2009 1971
Lynn Lake 26.6 23.6 1980 1952
Pinawa 30.7 30.5 2003 1964
Sprague 30.9 29.4 1932 1915
The Pas 30.3 27.5 2003 1910
Thompson 28.0 25.8 2003 1967

And today, September 9th, 2011, 18 records were broken:

Daily Record Temperatures set September 9, 2011

Location New
Record		 Old
Record		 Record
Year		 Records
Began
Alberta
Edson 28.7 27.8 1963 1910
Fort Chipewyan 30.0 27.0 1981 1884
Fort McMurray 32.7 32.4 1981 1944
Jasper 30.4 27.2 1944 1943
Sundre 28.9 25.8 2006 1985
Waterton Park 28.5 27.4 2006 1966
Whitecourt 29.7 29.0 1981 1943
Saskatchewan
Collins Bay 28.0 23.0 2003 1972
Hudson Bay 31.7 29.0 1998 1943
La Ronge 31.0 26.6 1994 1923
Nipawin 32.1 29.2 1981 1927
Stony Rapids 29.1 22.0 2006 1960
Manitoba
Fisher Branch 31.8 31.5 1982 1977
Gimli 31.1 31.0 1982 1944
Lynn Lake 31.1 26.6 2003 1952
Sprague 31.9 30.0 1931 1915
Swan River 31.7 30.0 1998 1908
The Pas 30.7 26.8 2003 1910

This record-setting heat is all thanks to an impressive upper ridge that has built into the Prairies. This is a feature located high in the atmosphere that causes a large area of air to subside (move downwards). Combined with the fact that they build up from the south, they bring a lot of warm air along with themselves, and often result in a large area seeing sunny skies, light winds and hot, dry weather.

The upper ridge will remain in our area for the next couple days, with daytime highs remaining in the low 30°C range. Winnipeg has an honest shot at breaking our daily record high temperature tomorrow which sits at 32.4°C. Things will abruptly change next week however. On Monday a low pressure system will pass by to our north and drag a cold front down across the province. Through the following days, a large ridge of high pressure will build in from the northwest, bringing significantly cooler temperatures than the past week:

GFS Temperatures Valid 06Z Thursday 15 Sept
GFS Surface Temperatures Valid 06Z Thursday 15 September

Currently it looks like next Wednesday and Thursday will be the coldest of the days, with highs struggling to get as high as 15°C. While the last week has been a beautiful late-season blast of summer, fall is set to make an aggressive entrance early next week.

Mostly Sunny

Brad Leave a comment

Models indicate that there is a chance of showers late overnight and into tomorrow morning, and then we should return back to mostly sunny skies before cooler air pushes in for the weekend.


The GEM-REG model is currently the most aggressive in pushing rain through southern Manitoba tomorrow morning, as shown above in the 12H precipitation accumulation map valid 12Z Wednesday morning.

Sunny skies this evening should cloud up overnight as a cold front passes through southern Manitoba.  Most models lean towards just a slight chance of showers for the RRV, with a majority of the precipitation occurring in Northwestern Ontario.  The GEM-REG model, however, fires up a fair line of showers along the front as it passes through overnight, giving up to 5mm of rain to the RRV.  This solution currently looks to be an outlier, however so far this cold front has had a good history of precipitation along it.

Either way, it’s fairly certain that any accumulations that do develop should stick to the 5mm range, and will certainly be less than 10mm.   After the front passes through, we should see another mostly sunny day with a few clouds scattered around.

By Friday, as an upper ridge builds in the western Prairies, we should see a brisk northerly flow develop as a cold front slumps down through the province.  Expect cloudier skies than the forecast currently suggests in the afternoon.  The good news is that despite the chill in the air, precipitation is looking like it should stay north of Winnipeg.  Saturday looks to be a chilly day with 850 temperatures struggling to get above 0 for most of the RRV, and then we begin to transition back to warmer weather for the beginning of next week as the upper ridge moves east.

Hot Today, Gone Tomorrow

Brad Leave a comment

Temperatures in the low 30’s combined with dewpoints in the low 20’s will make it feel like 40 degrees today.

A slow-moving low pressure system associated with a sharp, digging upper trough over the west coast is bringing southerly winds to the RRV under strong southwesterlies aloft.

850mb temperatures are climbing into the mid-20’s ahead of these features, which when combined with a southerly 40G60 km/h wind and sunny skies, will result in the temperatures soaring into the low 30’s today across much of Southern Manitoba, with temperatures reaching to near 35°C just on our side of the international border.  The strong winds will also last into the evening, keeping the air well mixed, which means we can expect very warm temperatures (> 25°C) probably past midnight.

Tomorrow we will recover a few degrees from our overnight low and then cool in the afternoon with the passage of a cold front.  There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow associated with the cold front, however timing of the passage will be critical in determining who will or won’t get any precipitation/storms.  Currently, models are suggesting that the cold front precipitation will fire up just east of Winnipeg, so areas like Dugald & Steinback would see afternoon showers.  The GEM has been under-doing the lift associated with this entire system, however, and positioning will be crucial, so it’s too early to say much, other than tomorrow will be cooler, cloudier, and a chance of showers and thunderstorms will hang around the RRV from late morning to the evening hours.