This week will start out with mild weather in southern Manitoba while a major storm system passes just to our south.
A major weather system will pass just to our south on Monday
Monday
Monday
-1°C / -4°C
Increasing Cloudiness. Chance of Flurries.
Today will feature nice weather in southern Manitoba. Temperatures will be near the zero degree mark with light winds. However, just to our south a major storm will be taking shape. This storm is expected to bring heavy snow to the Dakotas and Minnesota. There is still uncertainty about where the heaviest snow will fall, but if you have travel plans into the northern United States early this week you’ll definitely want to check the weather forecast along your route.
Tuesday
Tuesday
-1°C / -10C
Mainly Cloudy
Tuesday will be another mild day in southern Manitoba. Temperatures will once again be near the freezing mark with a light northerly flow. As you might expect, this north wind will be generated by that big storm to the south.
Wednesday
Wednesday
-1°C / -12°C
Mainly Sunny
Wednesday will be another mild day, with temperatures generally just below freezing. We should finally be clear of the storm system from earlier in the week, with clear skies being the order of the day. The wind will be from the north-west, but it won’t be particularly strong.
Long Range
The long range forecast calls for below normal temperatures in southern Manitoba for the end of March
Unfortunately, the long range forecast suggests a return to more wintry conditions for awhile. Most long-range guidance shows cool to cold conditions for the end of March. It remains unclear how the month of April will unfold.
Temperatures will slowly return to slightly below-seasonal values through the remainder of the week as unsettled weather pushes into the Red River Valley. While the main weather focus will remain further east as a significant low pressure system lifts through Central Ontario, the storm will have a broad reach spanning all the way from the Maritimes to Southern Manitoba.
This forecast precipitation panel from the GDPS shows the significant extent of this week’s develping storm.
One More Mild Day
Wednesday
-4°C / -9°C
Increasing cloud; mild. Snow overnight.
Today will bring another fairly nice day a westerly flow aloft continues spreading warm air into Southern Manitoba. Temperatures should climb up to around -4°C with relatively light southeasterly winds. Cloud coverage will increase through the day as a trough of low pressure works it’s way towards the Red River Valley, bringing with it another batch of snow and the beginning of of our transition back towards seasonal to slightly below-seasonal temperatures.
As the cloud pushes in, so too will the snow. Initially, the snow will spread into the Parkland region of the province – through Dauphin and down towards Minnedosa – before pushing eastwards into the Interlake. As the system tracks east, it will do it’s best to develop some light snow over the Red River Valley as a low-level jet ramps up and lifts over the warm front stationed in North Dakota. It’s still too early to say exactly how this is going to shape out: the location and intensity of the precipitation will have a lot to do with the exact track & timing of the system. If things line up right, we may see a band of moderate snow track across the RRV fairly early in the evening, but just as likely is that the LLJ doesn’t really get precipitation going until it’s further east into Minnesota, which could drastically reduce snowfall expectations depending on how much of that is able to wrap all the way around the low back into the Red River Valley.
Snowy Thursday
Thursday
⇒ -9°C / -15°C
Periods of light snow; 3-6cm accumulation.
Thursday looks to bring more snow Southern Manitoba as Wednesday’s system is absorbed into a much larger storm lifting northwards through Central Ontario. As a notable aside, this storm is absolutely massive, stretching from Manitoba all the way to the Maritimes and from Quebec all the way southwards to Florida.
The inherent uncertainty of both track and timing makes snowfall totals quite difficult. The highest confidence is for snow through the Parkland into the Southern Interlake and east. A combination of strong lift and a decent deformation zone look to produce a band of snow with totals from around 5-10cm. Assuming the currently forecast track of the system, we would then see around 3-6cm of snow through the northern Red River Valley – including Winnipeg – and 1-3cm or less through the southern Red River Valley.
Temperatures will be cooler on Thursday as a northwesterly wind keeps temperatures steady near -9°C. Temperatures will dip to around -15°C tomorrow night under mainly cloudy skies with a chance of a few flurries.
Cool Weekend Ahead
Friday
-13°C / -20°C
Mixed sky; chance of flurries.
Friday continues the cool trend with temperatures only recovering a degree or two – to around -13°C – while moderate northwesterly winds continue to make things unpleasant. There will be a slight chance of flurries through the day under mixed skies, but things should clear out on Friday night as we head to a low near -20°C.
The weekend will bring more cool temperatures as daytime highs slump towards -17 or 18°C under sunny skies by Sunday and overnight lows dropping below -20°C in the overnight periods.
This week will feature wild swings in the weather. Conditions will range from warm to chilly to snowy, with the weather varying from one day to the next.
A low pressure system will bring light snow to southern Manitoba on Monday
Monday
Monday Chance of Snow Late -10°C / -18°C
Today will be a bit cooler than the conditions we’ve experienced lately. High temperatures will be around the -10°C mark, with southerly winds. We’ll also see some snow begin to move into Western Manitoba from Saskatchewan in the morning or early afternoon. Total accumulations in Western Manitoba are expected to range from 2 to 5cm. The Red River Valley will be right on the edge of this area of snow, so we may end up with a couple centimetres if the snow pushes into the valley.
Tuesday
Tuesday Decreasing Cloudiness -11°C / -25°C
Tuesday will remain on the cooler side, though temperatures will remain near or slightly above normal. Highs will once again be near -10C, with a breezy north-west wind, but no precipitation is expected. We’ll cool down into the minus twenties on Tuesday night, but those cold temperatures will be short-lived.
Wednesday
Wednesday Mainly cloudy. Chance of Flurries. Risk of Freezing Rain or Ice Pellets. 2°C / -18°C
By Wednesday a powerful low pressure system will send warm air cascading across the Prairies. The cold air from Wednesday morning will be scoured out from Southern Manitoba by the afternoon as temperatures rise above zero in most areas. However, this warm air will be accompanied by very strong winds. Southerly winds of 40km/h gusting to 60km/h in the morning will switch to westerly winds of 40-50km/h gusting to 60-70km/h in the afternoon. These warm temperatures should make the snow more difficult to blow around, though some blowing is possible in the morning before we warm up.
Some light snow will be possible on Wednesday in association with this low pressure system. Larger snowfall amounts will be possible if the system tracks further south than currently expected. In addition to the snow, there may even be a bit of freezing rain or ice pellets because that warm air may melt snowflakes as they descend from the clouds. Unfortunately, the cold front associated with this low will pass through on Wednesday night, sending in colder air for Thursday.
Thursday and Beyond
Warmer than normal weather is being forecast by the NAEFS model for the second half of January
Thursday looks to be our coldest day for the next while, with high temperatures near -20C and gusty winds making it feel much cooler. However, besides Thursday It appears we will continue to see temperatures near or slightly above normal for the next while. Long range models continue to suggest that the second half of January will be warmer than normal, though we will still likely see the odd cold day here or there. No major weather systems are in the forecast, but this pattern will probably continue to send a parade of clipper systems coming out of Alberta, bringing the chance for light snow every few days.
After a snowy, but mild weekend, we’ll see some warmer weather return – but it will be short-lived.
A southerly flow will bring slightly warmer air to Southern Manitoba on Monday
Monday
Monday Mix of Sun and Cloud. Chance of flurries/showers -1°C / -4°C
A southerly flow will develop through Southern Manitoba on Monday, bringing some slightly warmer weather along with it. There may be a few flurries on Monday, but no significant precipitation is expected. The wind will be relatively light and from the south.
Tuesday
Tuesday Mainly cloudy. 3°C / 0°C
Tuesday will be warmer than Monday, as a developing low pressure system ramps up that southerly flow from Monday. Hopefully Tuesday’s warm conditions will allow some of the weekend’s snowfall to melt. The wind won’t be much stronger than on Monday, but the direction will shift to be more from the south-east.
Wednesday
Wednesday Decreasing Cloudiness. Temperature Falling. -6°C / -14°C
The low pressure system that brought the warmer weather to Southern Manitoba on Tuesday will move into the region on Wednesday. It appears that this system will generate an area of moderate snowfall to the north of its track, but no precipitation to the south of its track. At this point it appears the system will track in a fashion that results in no snowfall for most of Southern Manitoba, save for perhaps some parts of Western Manitoba. Regardless of whether or not this system brings us snowfall, it will bring us colder weather. A strong cold front associated with this low will bring down another arctic airmass, dropping temperatures well below zero for Wednesday and Thursday.
Long Range
The long range forecast currently looks on the cold side. Following the passage of that cold front on Wednesday models don’t hint at any immediate return to warmer conditions. Bear in mind that we are quickly moving into late November, so warm weather will being harder and harder to come by. On the bright side there is still no significant snow in the forecast, so we’re not in a true winter pattern quite yet!
