Tag: Flurries

Milder Weather Ahead, But Deep Freeze Looms

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A few morning flurries will mark the arrival of slightly milder air than has been in place over Southern Manitoba over the past several days, however the reprieve will be brief as another potent blast of Arctic air spills southwards for the weekend.

This morning will start off with a few flurries tapering off as a weak disturbance shunts by to the south of Winnipeg, leaving behind mainly cloudy skies for the day. There will be a slight chance of continue flurry activity through much of the day thanks to favourable snow-making temperatures throughout the depth of the cloud cover, but with the lack of any real focus for the snow, it will be very light if it occurs and pose no likelihood of any accumulation. Temperatures will be slightly milder than the highs near the -20°C mark that have been in place over the last few days; today’s high should climb to around -15°C with light southerly winds while the low tonight drops to around -19°C under mostly cloudy skies.

Thursday will bring a pair low pressure system through the province; the first skirting through the southwestern corner and the southern Red River Valley before exiting into Minnesota while the second drops down from Northern Manitoba, eventually merging into the first low near Lake Superior. This makes the forecast a little bit trickier, but fortunately neither system will bring particularly significant weather with it. The southern low will produce a swath of 2-3cm of fresh snow through southwestern Manitoba into the southwestern Red River Valley, while areas to the north and east see some light flurry activity.

RDPS 12hr. Precipitation Accumulation for Thursday
The RDPS is showing the main swath of snow from Thursday’s system well to our south…perhaps too far south.

Winnipeg appears to be near the edge of that, so throughout the day on Thursday we’ll likely see fairly cloudy skies with a chance of some flurries or perhaps even some light snow if the whole system pushes a little further to the east. Temperatures will climb a little higher than today, with a high temperature near -13°C expected.[1] Skies will remain fairly cloudy on Thursday night with a chance of flurries; the overnight low should be near -22°C.

With the low pressure systems off to our southeast, all that will be left is for the Arctic air to begin building back into the region unimpeded. This next shot of cold looks, at this point, to be colder than the last by a couple degrees. Friday will mark the entrance of that air, with northwest winds near 15-20km/h and a high near -19°C under partly cloudy skies. The overnight low on Friday night will sit near a very chilly -28 or 29°C.

Bitterly Cold Weekend Ahead

This weekend will be particularly cold thanks to a deep Arctic air mass that will slowly move through the region.

850mb Temperature Forecast for January 15-18, 2016
This animation of 850mb temperatures from Friday morning to Sunday morning shows the bitterly cold air moving over the province.

It will begin moving in on Friday, the core of it will be over Winnipeg on Saturday, and then it will begin shuffling off on Sunday. Unfortunately, as these systems move to the southeast, temperatures here at the surface tend to stay quite cold despite the warmer air moving in aloft thanks to an outflow of cold air out of the ridge to our south.

This will mean daytime highs likely around -24 or -23°C this weekend with overnight lows in the -28 to -30°C range. There’s also some indications that there will be 10 to 20 km/h winds through the weekend, which would likely mean Environment Canada would issue extreme cold warnings for wind chill values at night in the -38 to -44 range.

Temperatures will begin to moderate back towards -20°C or the low minus teens early next week.

  1. It’s worth noting that this system will have quite a sharp temperature boundary associated with it, so if everything were to shift east a bit we could see temperatures climbing above -10°C in Winnipeg; conversely, if it were to track further west, we could see daytime highs limited to around -17°C.  ↩

Arctic Chill Settles Over Manitoba

Brad 2 Comments

Winnipeg will see some of the coldest weather of the winter as Manitoba falls under the influence of the infamous Polar Vortex. Unlike other brief cold snaps seen this winter, this cold spell looks to be rather persistent, with only one brief warm-up on the horizon before the Arctic air returns.

Today will start with a few remaining flurries pushing out of the region as a cold front sweeps through the province. Winds will be out of the northwest at 20-30km/h for much of the day. Once the flurries move out this morning, the Red River Valley will be left with mainly cloudy skies and falling temperatures. By late this afternoon, the temperature will sit around -18 or -19°C.

Skies will remain fairly cloudy tonight as temperatures dip to -26°C.

Forecast 850mb Temperatures — RDPS 00Z Jan 08, 2016
The core of the coldest air in North America will be anchored over Manitoba on Saturday morning.

Saturday will mark the full arrival of the Arctic air. The high temperature will be limited to only -21°C with light northwesterly to westerly winds. There’s some uncertainty as to how much cloud cover will remain in the area, but it appears that we’ll likely see mixed skies here in Winnipeg. A little bit of clearing will move in on Saturday night as temperatures dip to around -25°C.

Sunday will continue the cold trend with daytime highs near -20°C under partly cloudy skies and light south to southwesterly winds. Sunday night will continue seeing partly cloudy skies with a low near -25°C.

Weather Roller Coaster Next Week

Unfortunately, next week doesn’t look to offer too much of a reprieve from the cold. This outbreak of colder weather has been driven by a weakening of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) which has allowed colder air to spill southwards. Despite the strong El Niño, the reality often is that cold air is king, and it’s managed to shunt out the warm air. The coming week will be a battleground between the blocking pattern of the Polar Vortex and the attempt for a more typical El Niño pattern featuring warmer weather and a more progressive pattern.

The first half of next week looks fairly cool with daytime highs in the -15 to -20°C range and a slight chance of snow on Monday into Monday night. There is hope for a more substantial warm-up mid-week, however.

A surge of significantly warmer air is expected to spread eastwards on Tuesday with some light snow associated with it. General consensus is that an Alberta Clipper will develop over Northern Alberta and then race southeastwards along the baroclinic zone, flattening it out and sweeping cold air southwards in its wake.

Exactly how warm it manages to get in Winnipeg will depend substantially on the timing and exact location of the setup. Some forecasts show the warm air fully pushing into the region and resulting in daytime highs mid-week near -8°C, while others have a more southerly track and occlude the warm air out to the south quickly and keep temperatures fairly cold.

After the passage of the clipper and any associated snow, the Polar Vortex is expected to retrogress and usher another shot of very cold air into Manitoba.

Seasonal Christmas Leads to Cold Weekend

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Winnipeg will see seasonal weather for Christmas Day with a slight chance elf some flurries as some cloud works its way across the region. Temperatures will plummet this weekend, however, as the first large Arctic ridge of the winter builds over the Prairies.

Merry Christmas from the crew here at A Weather Moment! We hope that you have a great few days however you spend them! Shift workers, thank you for continuing to do your work through the holidays so we can continue having the services we rely on!

Today will be a fairly unremarkable day with seasonal weather through Winnipeg and the Red River Valley. A weak disturbance moving across the province will bring mixed skies with just a very slight chance of some scattered light flurry activity as temperatures recover to around -12°C by early in the afternoon. It’s downhill after that, though, courtesy a building Arctic ridge that will push the cloud out of the region and bring colder air across the Prairies.

NAM Forecast Tempreature & Pressure valid Friday Night
This NAM forecast shows the very cold temperatures over the Prairies on Friday night as the Arctic high builds into Manitoba from Saskatchewan.

Temperatures will fall to around -25°C tonight. Saturday will bring a few clouds through the region and significantly colder temperatures with daytime highs of just -18 or -17°C. These highs are around 5°C below average for this time of year. Tonight will see temperatures fall to around -23 or -24°C with some scattered cloud.

Sunday will be a final cold day as the ridge slides to our south and southeasterly outflow winds set up over the region. Expect mixed skies and a high near -16°C. A developing low pressure system is forecast to begin spreading warmer air and cloud eastward across the Prairies on Sunday night, signalling an end to the cold snap. Temperatures will drop to around -24°C in the evening before a warming trend kicks in with the cloud. At this point, it looks like temperatures will rise to around -15°C by Monday morning. There’s some uncertainty with this system, though, and if it’s slower to develop than expected, the warmer air may not arrive until during the day on Monday.

Long Range

Next week is looking fairly nice, although the sun may be a rare site. With the arrival of the next system on Monday, warmer weather will move into Winnipeg for much of the remainder of the week. Daytime highs will likely be a bit above seasonal, around the -10°C mark, but those warmer temperatures will once again be accompanied by a lot of cloud. Much of the week will bring the potential for some flurries, but a more organized system looks possible mid-week that could bring another 4-8cm of snow to the region.

A brief shot of cold air rounds out the end of the week before a surge of very mild air moves in for early January, with the prospect of highs near the 0°C mark returning. So if we just need to make it through this one cold snap, then we’re back on a trend towards very mild winter weather!

A Seasonal Christmas Ahead; Cold This Weekend

Brad 1 Comment

Light snow will taper off and lead towards a seasonal Christmas this year with a chance of flurries, but perhaps one of the strongest shots of cold air seen this winter will move in for Boxing Day.

Light snow will persist through much of today thanks to a persistent area of snow hanging back into the Red River Valley. There will be a bit more accumulation; generally around 2-4 cm will fall today through the valley. The wind will be a bit chilly as it picks up out of the northwest to around 30 km/h with some gusts on top of that; with the fresh snow in place, it will likely be enough to produce localized areas of blowing snow and poor visibilities. With that north wind, we’ll see temperatures fall throughout the day to around -10°C by the evening hours, which will be just a couple degrees warmer than our overnight low of -12°C.

Thursday will see plenty of cloud lingering around in the Red River Valley. Temperatures will be nearly stagnant through the day, rising just a couple degrees by early in the afternoon before beginning to fall again, a casualty of the incoming Arctic air. It doesn’t look like snow will be much of an issue, though, so other than the cool temperatures, the day should actually be alright. Heading into the night, temperatures will drop to around -15°C under mostly cloudy skies.

GDPS forecast surface temperatures for Friday at 18Z
GDPS forecast surface temperatures for midday Friday

Friday, Christmas Day, will be a seasonal day thanks to a weak disturbance forecast to slip across the region, delaying the arrival of the colder Arctic air. With a daytime high of -12°C, temperatures will be nearly right on what’s seasonal for this time of year. A bit of very light snow is likely, but accumulations look to be minimal. Winds will shift around to the north and begin ushering in colder air late in the day. Expect an overnight low on Friday night dipping into the -20’s, likely around -22°C or so with clear skies beginning to develop over the region.

Long Range

The weekend will start with a miniature deep freeze, at least by the standards 2015 has set so far. Saturday will see clear skies and daytime highs struggling to climb even towards the mid-minus teens, likely ending up somewhere between -20 and -15°C. Fortunately, the cold weather will be short lived with a surge milder air returning for Sunday and returning daytime highs close to the -10°C range.

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast valid December 31, 2015 to January 7, 2016
NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast valid December 31, 2015 to January 7, 2016

Heading into the longer-range, there’s very strong agreement that a return to significantly above normal temperatures will return to the region for the new year. The NAEFS is actually forecasting a significant stretch of daytime highs likely in the -10°C to -5°C range for the first week of January. So just get past this weekend and rest easy knowing that relative warmth is on the way!

The seasonal temperatures for Winnipeg right now are daytime highs of -12°C and overnight lows of -22°C.