Tag: Flurries

Seasonal Temperatures & Dreary Weather Rounds Out The Week

Brad Leave a comment

The remainder of the work week will bring fairly seasonal temperatures to Winnipeg as the weather slowly improves. For the weekend, however, another blast of well above-seasonal temperatures is on the way!

Today will see a continuation of yesterday’s fog and drizzle patches through the morning hours, but it should dissipate with conditions improving by late morning as a weak cold front passes through the region. Behind that, we’ll be left with mainly cloudy conditions and light winds as the temperature climbs to around 3°C. The cloud cover will stick around overnight as we head to a low near –1°C.

Thursday will see a chance of flurries in Winnipeg & the Red River Valley as a weak shortwave drifts over the region in the northwest flow aloft. Northwesterly winds to around 20km/h will accompany a very close to seasonal high of 1°C. If we do see snow, it won’t accumulate to much, if anything at all.

12hr. Cumulative QPF valid 00Z Friday November 13, 2015
Flurries are possible through the day on Thursday while a much larger system passes through Ontario. Accumulations are expected to be light.

After the shortwave passes through on Thursday, skies will begin to clear, although with so much low-level moisture in the region, exact timing will be tricky. Skies will likely clear out at some point Thursday evening/overnight, however the cloud might persist into Friday morning before clearing. This timing will affect our overnight low forecast; if things clear out earlier, then we should see a low near –5°C or so, while if the cloud sticks around through the night, the low will be closer to –1 or –2° C.

Regardless of how Friday starts, we’ll be heading towards a mainly sunny high of 3 or 4 °C. Friday’s overnight low will sit near 0 to +1°C as much warmer air begins building in for the weekend.

More Warm Weather This Weekend And Beyond

Heading into the weekend, temperatures will soar again as the large-scale northwesterly flow that was in place shifts to be a more zonal, westerly flow, replacing cooler air with more mild, Pacific-sourced weather.

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Outlook valid November 17 to November 24, issued 12Z November 9, 2015
The NAEFS continues to forecast above-normal temperatures for Manitoba in the 8-14 day time range.

Generally speaking, daytime highs should climb into the upper single digits for both Saturday and Sunday which, while not sounding particularly warm, will be anywhere from 7–10°C above normal for this time of year.

Another low pressure system will work its way into southern Manitoba early next week, and while most of the precipitation looks like it will remain well north of the Red River Valley, the pattern does look like we may once again see the return of low cloud, drizzle and fog. It’s too early to tell, but just in case, you’d better get out there and enjoy the sun this weekend before it gets covered up again!

Turning Cloudy Again

Scott Leave a comment

We’ll have one more sunny day before conditions turn cloudy again. A low pressure system moving up from the United States will bring another round of dreary, wet weather.

Today will be quite nice in southern Manitoba. Temperatures will be near 10C under mainly sunny skies and light winds. The normal high for this time of year is only 1C, so conditions today are well above seasonal. Enjoy it, this may be one of the last nice days of the year!

A low pressure system moving up from the United States will bring warm weather on Monday, but cloudy weather for Tuesday and Wednesday
A low pressure system moving up from the United States will bring warm weather on Monday, but cloudy weather for Tuesday and Wednesday

Tuesday will see the return of dreary, wet weather. A low pressure system moving up from the US will spread showery weather over southern Manitoba. Accumulations will be very light, but the cloudy, wet conditions won’t make for a very nice day. Winds will be from the north at 20km/h.

Wednesday will see a continuation of Tuesday’s grey weather. However, instead of just rain, we may see some snow mixed in as well. No accumulations are expected, but the white stuff is never a welcome sight at this time of year. Winds will be north-westerly at 20-30km/h with temperatures in the low single digits.

Long Range

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast issued 12Z November 8, 2015
NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast issued 12Z November 8, 2015

Long range models, such as the NAEFS pictured above, continue to strongly suggest that above-seasonal weather will last for most of November. Given the strength of El Nino this winter, expect to continue hearing a lot more about warmer than normal weather in the long range!

A Change for the Cooler

Scott 1 Comment

This week’s weather will be significantly cooler than what we experienced last week as a upper-level system to our east pulls down chillier air from the north.

Cool weather will prevail on Monday under a stiff northerly flow
Cool weather will prevail on Monday under a stiff northerly flow

Monday

Today will be cool, cloudy, and precipitation-y. We’ll see some mixed showers and flurries throughout the day as a strong low pressure system exits our region. High temperatures will be in the mid single digits, meaning that even if it does snow it won’t stick around for long. Winds will be gusty due to the departure of that weather system, with values from the northwest of 40km/h gusting to 60km/h.

Tuesday

Tuesday will remain cool and breezy, but we will see some sun! High temperatures will be in the upper single digits under mainly sunny skies. Winds will be northerly at 20-30 km/h, making it feel on the chilly side.

Wednesday

Wednesday will be slightly cooler than Tuesday as more cool air pours in from the north. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper single digits, but skies will remain mainly sunny. Winds will be northerly at 20-30km/h once again

Long Range

The long range forecast suggests that this cooler pattern will stick around for at least the rest of the week. A persistent trough is expected to remain parked just to our east, meaning that cool air will be continually pumped into southern Manitoba during the short to medium-term. However, in the longer range this pattern is expected to break-down, ushering in a return of more seasonal conditions.

Cooler Weather Rounds Out Weekend

Brad Leave a comment

The unseasonably warm weather that’s been in place over Southern Manitoba will remain for a couple more days before a big shift in the weather pattern behind a low pressure system passing through on Sunday that will bring cooler air back to the region for next week. The shift in conditions will be quite a shock to the system after a pleasant stretch of above-normal temperatures looks to be replaced with the potential of a return to…snowier conditions.

Today will be a fairly pleasant day in the Winnipeg area. On Wednesday we had mentioned the possibility that today might be another very windy day but, thankfully, it looks like the system that guidance suggested would be a bit of a trouble-maker has ended up weaker and further north than it appeared earlier in the week. As such, we’ll see slightly warmer temperatures with a high near 18°C with somewhat breezy northwesterlies developing to around 30 gusting 50km/h. Tonight will bring mainly clear skies and a low near 3°C with light winds.

Saturday is looking like another beautiful day as warm air surges northwards ahead of Sunday’s low pressure system. Winds will be a bit breezy out of the south to southeast at around 20–30km/h in the morning but will likely taper off a bit into the afternoon, making for an exceptionally pleasant sunny afternoon with a high near 20°C and fairly calm winds. Unfortunately, it’s all downhill from there. Cloud will move in on Saturday evening and through the overnight period as a low pressure system pushes northwards out of the Central Plains of the United States. Expect a low near 6°C.

Sunday Brings Showers & Transition to Cooler Weather

Forecast 1000–500mb Thickness Sunday into Monday
Forecast 1000–500mb Thickness Sunday into Monday

Sunday will mark the transition into a cooler air mass as a fairly complex pattern change gets underway. The weather will be dominated by two primary features: a low pressure system lifting north-northeast out of the Northern Plains of the US and a shortwave moving into Manitoba from Saskatchewan. The two systems will undergo a complex merging and look to stall out a bit over Northern Ontario. This stalling out will resulting in an amplification of the long-wave trough developing over the region resulting in a plunge of colder air southwards over the Eastern Prairies. This is reflected very nicely in the above graphic which shows the forecast 1000–500mb thicknesses[1] plunging behind the low pressure system.

So what does that mean for Sunday? Well, there’s a bit of ambiguity as to what will happen here in Winnipeg as a lot will depend on the exact timing of and how the two systems merge. We’ll definitely see cloudy skies, likely see a very good chance of showers through the day. Precipitation will fall as rain for most of the day, but likely switch over to snow sometime in the early evening. Snowfall amounts won’t be big, however a couple cm are certainly possible.

The high on Sunday will be near 10°C with a slight northwesterly breeze. Temperatures will drop just below freezing on Sunday night. Rainfall totals of 5–10mm are possible with 2–3cm of snow possible on Sunday night.

Long Range

Heading into Monday, it looks like the Red River Vally will see flurries, highs near the freezing mark and blustery northwest winds. After that, the rest of the week looks fairly quiet with little in the way of precipitation expected. Daytime highs through much of the week will be more than 5°C below the seasonal values of 11–12°C.

  1. The 1000–500mb thickness is the distance, or thickness, between the 1000mb level (near-surface) and 500mb level (averages around 18,000ft and is often considered the steering flow for weather systems). Higher thickness values correlate to warmer temperatures and lower thicknesses correlate to colder temperatures.  ↩