Cold and dry weather continues through the end of the week and into the weekend, however long-range guidance continues to develop a consensus that will show a moderate-to-significant warm-up by the end of next week.
Today is bringing mainly sunny skies over southern Manitoba with highs near the –20°C mark. It will be a little breezy with northwesterly winds to 20–30km/h. Winds will taper off this evening with temperatures dropping to around –23°C. Clouds will thicken up overnight as a trough of low pressure slides into the region from the northwest.
This trough of low pressure will be the main weather story for Thursday; the first half of the day will be cloudy with some light snow before things begin to clear through the afternoon. Winds will strengthen out of the northwest behind the trough and by mid-afternoon much of the Red River Valley will see winds of 30–40km/h with gusts to 60km/h. Winds will stay breezy through Thursday night at around 30km/h as the temperature drops to around –25°C.
Friday will bring a few clouds and a high near –18°C with breezy winds to 30–40km/h once again out of the west-northwest.
Big Warm-Up Next Week?
Long-term forecast models are beginning to come into a consensus that we’ll see a fairly significant warm-up through the latter half of next week.
A time-series plot of forecast surface temperatures (red) and 850mb temperatures (purple) from the GDPS. Courtesy Spot WX.
Probabilistic forecasts are all showing warmer-than-seasonal temperatures in the 8–14 day period[1], however some models are hinting that it might get significantly warmer. Shown above, the GDPS weather model is bringing 850mb temperatures near 0°C into the region through next week which allows the surface temperatures to gradually climb to around 0°C as well.
There’s a lot of danger in using a deterministic model that far into the future, though, and I’d feel a lot more comfortable with temperatures in the –10 to –5°C range by mid-week instead of promising highs near the freezing mark.
Alongside the warming trend will come a more active storm track which will bring the potential for a couple snow events across the region as well.
Seasonal daytime highs for Winnipeg next week sit around the –12°C mark. ↩
The cold weather is here to stay across Southern Manitoba as a continuous northwesterly flow aloft, thanks to the established vortex over Hudson Bay, continues to pump Arctic air southwards.
Satellite imagery shows much of Manitoba entrenched on the cold side of the Arctic jet while the entire Prairies remains on the cold side of the Polar jet.
While temperatures won’t be as cold as was seen across the Prairies over the weekend thanks to a slight moderation of temperatures as the coldest air rotates out of the Prairies into NW Ontario, daytime highs will still be significantly below the normal[1] temperatures for this time of year.
Monday
-21°C / -25°C
Mainly sunny
Tuesday
-19°C / -27°C
Mixed skies with a chance of flurries
Wednesday
-20°C / -23°C
Mainly sunny
Today will bring mainly sunny skies to Winnipeg with just a few clouds later in the morning and through the afternoon. Skies will likely be a bit cloudier east of Winnipeg in the Red River Valley, but nothing particularly significant is expected in the way of cloud cover as the bulk of it should remain to the north and east of the Red River Valley. Temperatures will climb to around –21°C with fairly light winds which should bring an end to the –40 or colder wind chills early this morning. Expect temperatures to dip to around –24°C tonight with a little more cloud cover moving in.
Tomorrow looks cold again with highs near –20°C or so under mixed skies. A few flurries are possible, particularly through Winnipeg & the eastern half of the Red River Valley. Winds will be a bit breezy out of the northwest at around 20–30km/h which will make it feel a fair bit colder. Skies should clear out tomorrow evening with the winds tapering off as temperatures head to a low of around –27°C.
Wednesday looks like another mainly sunny day with a high near –20°C and winds out of the west at 15–20km/h. The “bigger” story will be on Wednesday night into Thursday morning when a weak system slides across Southern Manitoba, bringing some light snow with it. No significant accumulations are expected, though.
Signs of a Warm-Up in the Long-Range?
There may be a little hope for a reprieve from the cold as long-range forecast models are beginning to show signs that the current pattern may begin to break down next week, allowing some milder air back into the Prairies.
The NAEFS is hinting towards a warm-up towards seasonal to above-seasonal temperatures next week.
It’s still a little early to say for certain what’s going to happen – the long-range outlooks are only slightly hinting towards above normal temperatures. In general, it looks like we should see a trend next week back towards more seasonal temperatures.
The normal daytime highs for Winnipeg in January are really just an average of extremes. The record high temperature for January 5th is 6.7°C set in 2012 while the record minimum high temperature is –30.7°C set last year in 2014. When your spread on daytime highs is 37°C, it’s hard to pin down a “normal” or “seasonal” high. ↩
Manitobans can enjoy slight relief from the bitter cold that has been in place the last few days as more seasonal temperatures are in place thanks to a fairly large low pressure system passing through Hudson Bay that has dragged the warm air all the way east from the Rocky Mountains. Unfortunately, the milder weather will be short lived as a series of cold fronts sweep southwards into the United States ushering the colder air back into the region.
Wednesday
-11°C / -17°C
Mixed skies with a slight chance of flurries
Thursday
-14°C / -17°C
Increasing cloud
Friday
-15°C / -19°C
Partly cloudy
Temperatures will climb to around –11°C today with mixed skies as a warm front slides through the region from the northwest. There will be a slight chance of flurries, particularly first thing in the morning and again in the evening into the overnight period, but otherwise it will be a seasonally nice day with westerly winds at 30–40km/h. Expect temperatures to drop to around –17°C tonight.
Thursday will be a bit of an in between day; a weak cold front passing through will bring daytime highs cooler than Wednesday – somewhere around –14°C or so – and a fairly sunny start to the day. By the afternoon, more cloud should begin working its way in from the west alongside the next low approaching from Saskatchewan. Little in the way of snow is expected here on Thursday or Thursday night and winds will be relatively light. Temperatures will dip back down to –17°C once again on Thursday night.
Friday will be the sunniest day of the second half of the week. A slight chance of some morning flurries will quickly clear out as we head to a high of around –15°C with light winds. However, a storm is brewing, and by Friday evening an Alberta clipper will be making its way into Southern Manitoba, set to pack a compact wallop as it moves through Friday night and Saturday.
End-of-Week Alberta Clipper Brings Winter Storm to Manitoba
An Alberta Clipper is forecast to track across Southern Manitoba Friday night into Saturday, bringing with it a significant shot of snow, strong winds, and then a plummet back into frigid Arctic air.
Note: Alberta clippers are compact systems whose impact depends significantly on their track. As we’re still several days out from this system, please take the following as just general guidance and remember that with a slight change in track, significant changes in the weather could be seen for any one location.
Snow will spread eastwards into southwestern Manitoba and the Parkland region on Friday evening, progressing across the remainder of the province through the evening hours. A relatively sharp deformation zone will set up across the Parkland & Interlake regions, limiting the northward extent of the snow. While many regions will see accumulating snow, the greatest amounts will be along the Trans-Canada corridor and the western escarpment of the Red River Valley.
First-guess snowfall amounts for the upcoming storm system this weekend.
By the time the snow stops on Saturday evening, around 10–15cm of snow may have fallen in a large swath encompassing much of the Trans-Canada corridor and areas south to the U.S. border. An area of higher snowfall will likely develop somewhere near the US border, perhaps just south into North Dakota, depending significantly on where & when the system pivots and begins heading E/NE instead of SE. In the core of heaviest snowfall, as much as 15–25cm of snowfall looks possible. Much of the Parkland and southern Interlake will see between 4–8cm, with amounts tapering off fairly quickly north of that.
In addition to the snow, this system will have fairly strong winds associated with it. Ahead of the low, easterly to northeasterly winds will strengthen to a gusty 30–40km/h. As the system passes through, winds will strengthen out of the northwest to around 50km/h with gusts as high as 70–75km/h. The strong northwesterly winds coupled with the ample fresh snow will likely produce blizzard conditions and make travel dangerous on Saturday. If you have travel plans, make a plan B in case this forecast happens to be right.
Temperatures will reach a high around –15°C on Saturday and then plummet to around –30°C on Saturday night with wind chill values near –45. Sunday looks clear and bitterly cold with a high of only around –26°C coupled with 20–30km/h winds that will produce wind chill values in the –35 to –40 range. If these wind chill values materalize, we’ll likely see extreme cold warnings issued for much of Southern Manitoba through the weekend.[1]
As mentioned, there is potentially significant variability to this forecast and what I’ve presented is the current most likely scenario. I’ll be keeping tabs on this system through the week and provide updates in the comments below and another full look at it in Friday morning’s blog post.
If the extreme cold occurs while blizzard conditions are ongoing, the blizzard warning would “include” the extreme cold. ↩
A strong Arctic ridge has brought the coldest weather so far this winter into the province. Temperatures will be well below seasonal[1] for much of the coming week.
Monday
-21°C / -31°C
Sunny
Tuesday
-23°C / ⇑ -18°C
Mainly sunny
Wednesday
-12°C / -22°C
Mixed to cloudy skies
Today’s post will be a relatively brief one since there simply isn’t much weather to talk about. Today and tomorrow will both be very cold days with highs not even hitting –20°C under mainly sunny skies. Tonight will bring lows dipping below the –30°C mark and winds at 10–15km/h creating wind chill values near or just below –40.[2] Tomorrow night will be quite a bit different, though, as an approaching low pressure system brings increasing cloud and climbing temperatures. By Wednesday morning, skies should be mixed to mainly cloudy with temperatures near –18°C. Through the remainder of Wednesday we should continue to see mixed to cloudy skies with temperatures climbing to around –12 or –11°C. There’s a slight chance for some flurry activity, but in general temperatures look a bit on the cool side for the kind of snow that would be possible. Skies clear on Wednesday night as temperatures drop into the –20 to –25°C range.
New Year, Same Story
Despite the promise of a new year beginning on Thursday, the story will be one we’ve heard before: a return to the deep freeze.
The NAEFS shows a high probabilty of below-normal temperatures next week.
Another shot of bitterly cold Arctic air will begin working its way into the Prairies through the latter half of the week, with daytime highs dropping from the low minus teens into the –20 to –25°C range by the weekend. Overnight lows will follow suit, also dropping through the week and likely dipping below –30°C by the weekend. Little to no snow is expected. The exceptionally cold weather is expected to persist into next week.
Seasonal daytime highs for this time of year in Winnipeg sit near –12°C ↩
–40 is Environment Canada’s threshold for extreme cold warnings, so we may see Southern Manitoba once again blanketed in warnings this afternoon. ↩
