Tag: Flurries

Flurries Taper Off, Cool Weather Continues

Brad Leave a comment

A reinforcing shot of Arctic air is pushing into Southern Manitoba for the remainder of the week. The cooler weather will gradually settle things and bring more sunshine than we’ve seen in the past while to the region, but before that happens another day of flurries lies ahead.

Wednesday
-5°C / -9°C
Periods of snow
Thursday
-7°C / -14°C
Mixed skies; chance of light flurries
Friday
-9°C / -15°C
Mainly sunny

Today will bring mainly cloudy skies with flurries continuing to drift southwards from the Interlake as general instability coupled with optimal temperature profiles[1] results in periods of snow throughout the day today. Snow will begin tapering off in the late afternoon or evening as clouds begin to break up and the northerly winds around 30-40km/h shift more northwesterly and gradually weaken.

Temperatures will climb to a high around -5°C and drop to -9 or -10°C tonight.

The forecast sounding for noon today in Winnipeg shows the deep layer of favourable snow-making temperatures – shown in white – that will be in place Wednesday and Thursday.
The forecast sounding for noon today in Winnipeg shows the deep layer of favourable snow-making temperatures – shown in white – that will be in place Wednesday and Thursday.

Thursday will bring mixed skies as clouds gradually clear throughout the day. The same temperature profile will be in place as today, so any low-level clouds will likely be able to produce some light flurry activity, but nothing significant is expected. Winds will shift to westerly at around 15-25km/h for much of the day as a ridge of high pressure slumps into the Dakotas from Saskatchewan. Expect a low near -14 or -15°C under clear skies on Thursday night.

Friday will be a beautifully sunny day, but it comes with the cost of being the coldest day so far. With relatively light west to southwesterly winds flowing out of the high pressure system to our south and southwest, temperatures will climb only to around -9°C. Temperatures will drop back into the mid-minus teens on Friday night under clear skies.

Cold Weather, Flurries for the Weekend

This weekend looks to bring flurries back to Southern Manitoba as another cold front pushes through on Saturday night. Snow will likely be found along the front as well as behind it through the day on Sunday as another unstable northwesterly flow develops.

The GDPS is showing another round of flurries pushing through the Red River Valley on Saturday night into Sunday morning.
The GDPS is showing another round of flurries pushing through the Red River Valley on Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Cold weather is expected to continue behind the front as another shot of Arctic air moves into the province.

  1. Snow grows best in temperatures between around -8°C to -15°C between the surface and around 700mb. The thermal profile over Winnipeg matches those temperatures nearly exactly which will make it very easy for snow to develop.  ↩

First Taste of Winter

Scott Leave a comment

This week will feature our first taste of winter as a cold arctic air mass descends on southern Manitoba.

Cold weather will descend on southern Manitoba this week
Cold weather will descend on southern Manitoba this week

Monday

Monday
-5°C / -8°C
Mainly cloudy with chance of flurries

Today will be one of the coldest days we’ve seen so far this fall. High temperatures will stay on the minus side of zero with the possibility of light flurries throughout the day. There will be a breezy north wind as well, but overall it shouldn’t be too unpleasant.

Tuesday

Tuesday
-4°C / -5°C
Mainly cloudy with chance of flurries

Tuesday will feature weather that is very similar to that experienced on Monday. High temperatures will once again remain in the minus single digits with a chance of flurries. The wind will once again be from the north, at 20-30km/h.

Wednesday

Wednesday
-3°C / -6°C
Flurries

Sub-freezing weather will continue on Wednesday, with high temperatures in the minus single digits yet again. Flurries will be likely throughout the day, and some light accumulation may even occur. The wind will be gusty and from the north or north-west.

Long Range

The long range forecast suggests we will see wintry conditions continue for the foreseeable future. Thankfully, no major snowfall events are currently in the forecast. Snow cover dramatically affects our temperature regime, so the longer we can avoid the white stuff the longer we will avoid really cold conditions!

Winter’s Blustery Arrival

Brad Leave a comment

A storm system tracking through Manitoba today will bring one last shot of warmer weather alongside some rain before a major pattern shift plunges much of central and eastern North America into a substantial outbreak of Arctic air.

This map of 850mb winds and temperatures shows a potent cold front pushing through Southern Manitoba this afternoon.
This map of 850mb winds and temperatures shows a potent cold front pushing through Southern Manitoba this afternoon.

Friday: Windy and Rainy Afternoon

Friday
8°C / -5°C
Rain ending early this morning; windy with showers this afternoon

Today will start off with overnight rain tapering off fairly early in the morning; the temperature will start off around 2°C and climb to a high of 7 or 8°C under mostly cloudy skies. There’s a slight chance of a few sunny breaks in the morning to midday, but it won’t take too long until the cold front comes sweeping through the Red River Valley.

Winds will strengthen dramatically out of the northwest through the afternoon from nearly calm winds at lunch time to around 40-50km/h with gusts as high as 70km/h. Along with the strong winds, a band of showers will move through with just a few mm expected. Temperatures will drop behind the cold front heading to a low of around -5°C tonight.[1]

Lake-effect snow may rear its head as well tonight as the northwesterlies bring the significantly cooler air over the still-open lakes. Areas in the lee of the lakes may see lake-effect snow develop sometime late in the evening through the overnight period. It looks like Winnipeg will miss out on the lake-effect activity, but we’ll keep an eye on things as they develop this evening.

Significantly Cooler Weekend

Saturday
-2°C / -6°C
Mixed skies, breezy and cool
Sunday
-2°C / -9°C
Mainly sunny

The weekend ahead will be marked by the beginning of a move into a much cooler air mass. Saturday will be a breezy, cool day with northwesterly winds 20-30km/h and a high near -2°C. Winnipeg will sit near the northern edge of a large bank of cloud stretching through Saskatchewan into North Dakota & Minnesota, which should result in mainly cloudy skies. A few sunny breaks are likely, however if things shift a bit further south the day could end up being a whole lot sunnier.

Under any of the cloud stretching through the Red River Valley, some very light flurry activity is possible. No accumulations are expected.

Temperatures will drop to around -6°C under clearing skies on Saturday night.

Sunday will bring mainly sunny skies and lighter winds as a ridge of high pressure sets up over the region. We had mentioned the chance for snow on Sunday in our last post, but as suspected all models are now pushing it well to our south. Expect a daytime high near -2°C and an overnight low near -9°C.

Even Colder Weather Next Week

Unfortunately, even colder weather is expected to move into the region next week, driving temperatures well below the seasonal high of around 0°C.[2]

The 6-10 day temperature outlook from the CPC shows unquestionable certainty of below-normal temperatures for central and eastern North America.
The 6-10 day temperature outlook from the CPC shows unquestionable certainty of below-normal temperatures for central and eastern North America.

A prominent upper-level trough will dig over the eastern United States next week, developing a pipeline of Arctic air straight from the North Pole into the central United States. Expect highs in the mid-minus single digits and lows near -10°C or so. No major systems are forecast to track through, and it appears that most snow that may show up will either be lake-effect or general light flurry activity. The lack of snow cover should help our temperatures from dropping too far, particularly at night.

  1. Plus or minus a degree or two depending exactly on cloud cover.  ↩
  2. Although one could say that in Novemeber, more than most months, “seasonal” or “normal” temperatures are just an average of extremes.  ↩

Winter’s On The Way

Brad Leave a comment

The (seasonally) gorgeous weather we’ve been having to start off November will be coming to an end this weekend as a pool of cold air that’s been dammed up north of 60° spills southwards behind a storm system that will push across the province on Friday. The result will be an abrupt transition from temperatures in the mid-single digits on the warm side of zero to highs well below the normal 2°C. In addition the cooler weather, Southern Manitoba will move into a busier weather pattern that will produce multiple threats for precipitation over the coming week, including what may be our first snowfall that “sticks.” After a quiet 5 weeks, it looks like the weather is set to get much busier in Winnipeg!

Wednesday
3°C / -1°C
Cloudy

Thursday
3°C / -2°C
Mainly cloudy

Friday
4°C / -1°C
Morning snow changing to periods of rain

Before things begin to get busier, Manitobans in the Red River Valley will get another couple days of above-normal temperatures to enjoy. Both today and tomorrow will bring mainly cloudy skies thanks to persistent stratus cloud that will struggle to clear out of the region. A few sunny breaks may show up, but generally cloudy skies will be the common theme. Temperatures will climb to around 3°C for the daytime high today.

Another batch of flurries is expected to move through the Interlake tonight.
Another batch of flurries is expected to move through the Interlake tonight.

Another round of flurry activity is expected tonight as a trough pushes through the region. The overnight low will drop

Thursday will bring a repeat performance for the high, but with a few more clear breaks likely on Thursday night, the low will drop a bit lower to around -2°C. No significant precipitation is expected either day.

Friday: The First Snow?

Friday will mark the start of our transition into a stormier, colder weather pattern. A low pressure system moving from southeastern Saskatchewan into North Dakota will spread an area of snow eastwards into southwest Manitoba on Thursday night, pushing eastwards into the Red River Valley on Friday morning. It looks likely that the precipitation will reach from the American border into the Southern Interlake[1], however the bigger challenge as this system pushes eastwards will be what type of precipitation will be falling out of the sky.

5-10mm of liquid-equivalent precipitation is expected on Friday; how much of that falls as snow remains to be seen.
5-10mm of liquid-equivalent precipitation is expected on Friday; how much of that falls as snow remains to be seen.

With a high of just +1°C, it will be a fine line between rain and snow, with a shallow above-freezing layer right at the surface working to try and melt snow as it moves into the lowest levels of the atmosphere. As the morning progresses, warmer air will push in aloft and help snow transition into rain. All in all, it doesn’t seem like a ton of snow will fall; perhaps 2-4cm, however with the switch-over to rain and temperatures climbing above zero, it’s unlikely that it really has much of a chance to accumulate or stick around.

With temperatures hovering near or just above 0°C through the morning, exact timing of rain and snow will remain somewhat uncertain until much closer to this system’s approach.

Temperatures will dip below zero on Friday night as they head to the overnight low of -1°C or -2°C. The freezing temperatures following the rain or snow we see could end up creating quite slippery road conditions, so if you need to travel on Saturday, now’s a great time to brush up on your winter driving skills!

Weekend Brings First Taste of Winter

Behind Friday’s system, significantly cooler air will begin working its way into the province. Temperatures will fall below zero to around -3°C or so for daytime highs and around -8°C[2] for overnight lows. Some lake-effect snow may be possible in the lee of the lakes on Saturday with the cool northwesterly winds moving over the still-open water.

Another low pressure system will move through on Sunday, bringing the first chance for a significant snow event to the Red River Valley. It’s still too far out to try and speculate just how bad it will be, but current model output is showing the potential for anywhere from 10-20cm of snow by Monday morning. It’s still a long ways out, though, and this system could easily end up to our north or south. Consider it added to our storm watch list.

So, with the arrival of winter fairly imminent, enjoy the last couple above-zero days!

  1. There’s a little disagreement with some models suggesting the precipitation remains mainly south of Winnipeg, but at this point it looks like a fairly safe bet that Winnipeg will be impacted by this system.  ↩
  2. …-ish.  ↩