Conditions will remain at or above normal this week, unfortunately “normal” continues to get colder by the day.
A cool westerly flow will dominate southern Manitoba on Monday
Monday
Monday
8°C / 2°C
Mix of sun and cloud
Today will be mild by early November standards, but that doesn’t mean it will be warm. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper single digits in southern Manitoba with a brisk westerly wind. Skies will be a mixture of sun and cloud as an upper-level weather system moves across Manitoba.
Tuesday
Tuesday
4°C / 0°C
Mainly cloudy with chance of showers or flurries
Tuesday will be cooler than Monday as we see a brisk north-westerly flow behind a departing low pressure system. Temperatures will generally be in the mid single digits under mainly cloudy skies. There may be a few flurries or rain showers, but no significant accumulations are expected.
Wednesday
Wednesday
3°C / 1°C
Mainly cloudy with chance of showers/flurries
Wednesday will see continued cool weather in southern Manitoba with temperatures in the low to mid single digits, but lighter winds than what we saw earlier in the week. Skies will remain mainly cloudy and we may once again see some light flurries or rain showers.
Long Range
The long range forecast suggests we’ll continue to see normal to above-normal weather for at least the next week or so. Beyond that model solutions diverge, with equal chances of us ending up above or below normal.
The shot of cool air that worked its way into Winnipeg in a somewhat unwelcome fashion yesterday will remain entrenched over the region for the next few days, resulting in seasonal to just below seasonal temperatures heading towards Halloween. Fortunately, the weather looks to be drier, and it’s unlikely that we’ll see much more of the white stuff.
Wednesday
4°C / -1°C
Mainly cloudy; slight chance of morning flurries
Thursday
2°C / -6°C
Partly cloudy and cool
Friday
4°C / -2°C
Mainly sunny with increasing cloud in the afternoon
Today will remain mainly cloudy but, unlike yesterday, our temperatures should manage to sneak just a little bit higher, to around 4 or 5°C[1] with substantially calmer winds. A weak low pressure system skirting along the U.S. border will bring a slight chance of showers to areas in the vicinity, but it looks like rain will likely remain States-side. A chilly night ahead tonight as some of the cloud starts clearing out and we head to a low of around -1°C.
Thursday will be a cool day as an Arctic ridge builds southeastwards into the province. Skies will be partly cloudy with no real chance of precipitation and it will be quite cool as temperatures are only expected to climb to 1 or 2°C. The overnight low will dip down to a very chilly -6 or -7°C under mainly clear skies. Thursday night looks like the low point for our temperatures over the next while.
A Chilly Halloween
Temperatures will begin to moderate on Friday but it will still be a chilly Halloween evening. The day will start off mainly sunny, but as the Arctic ridge slides off to our east and another low pressure system begins approaching from the west, more cloud will begin pushing in from the west. The temperature will climb to around 4°C by the afternoon and, thanks to the increasing cloud, gradually cool off through the evening.
Preliminary temperature & wind forecast for Halloween evening.
Alongside the increasing cloud coverage will come gradually increasing winds. While early in the evening they’ll be only around 15-20km/h, the wind will gradually increase to 30 gusting 50km/h by mid-evening and then further increasing to 40 gusting 60km/h by late in the evening. The temperature will drop to around -2°C overnight. The wind will make it feel rather cool, despite the fairly seasonal temperatures expected.
Unsettled Weekend
The weekend looks somewhat unpleasant as warmer air tries to work its way back into the province. Saturday looks quite windy and fairly cloudy as temperatures climb into the upper single-digits. Sunday brings some uncertainty as a larger system develops in the northern United States and lifts northeastwards. Temperatures will remain slightly above normal, however it is possible that it ends up being a fairly rainy day. There’s significant disagreement with the models on the timing of this system, though; some bring rain in early on Sunday while others delay the rain until Monday. We’ll be sure to keep an eye on this system as it develops and we’ll take a closer look at it in Friday’s post!
Seasonal highs for late October in Winnipeg sit near 5°C. ↩
The GFS depicts an upper-level ridge building into our region early next week.
Winter-weary Winnipeggers can take solace in the fact that an end to the never-ending winter is in sight. There is increasing confidence that a large upper-level ridge will build into the Central U.S. and Southern Prairies early next week and finally bring some seasonal to slightly above seasonal temperatures to the region. First, though, we’ll have to make it through the rest of the week.
A Cold End to the Week
Cold temperatures will continue to persist through the remainder of the week with well below seasonal highs and lows expected. These cold temperatures are being caused by a large stationary trough of cold air over Hudson Bay that has locked the eastern Prairies into a northwesterly flow that has allowed cold Arctic air to spill southwards, dashing the warm-weather hopes of battered and beleaguered Manitobans.
Wednesday
-2°C / -17°C
A few clouds.
Thursday
0°C / -10°C
Partly cloudy. Slight chance of flurries.
Friday
5°C / 1°C
Late day cloudiness; warming up.
Tonight will be the coldest night for the remainder of the week in the Red River Valley thanks to another push of cold air on the back side of a low pressure system passing to our south. There will be a strong chance of another swath of record low temperatures broken – similar to Monday night – as overnight lows dip some 15-20°C below normal.
Thursday brings a similar high to today, around -2°C, however temperatures just off the ground will be a little bit cooler. This combination will result in stronger low-level instability and we could potentially see a few light flurries develop through the Red River Vally similar to what was seen on Monday afternoon. Overall the risk is very slight, though. Temperatures will drop to a more mild -10°C Thursday night as warmer air begins pushing eastwards.
Friday will be the warmest day so far this week. Temperatures look to climb above the freezing mark towards +4 or +5°C with only a bit of cloudiness to contend with. Winds will be a little breezy out of the southeast to around 20-30km/h, but overall it will be quite a pleasant day with plenty of sunshine. Some cloud will begin streaming in late in the day ahead of the next system pushing towards the region. The cloudier skies will help keep our overnight low fairly warm, with a chance we won’t even drop below 0°C. We may have to contend with some unpleasant weather through the overnight hours, though…
Big Shift on the Weekend
Precipitation amounts forecast on Friday night by the GDPS.
Models are all hinting towards some precipitation on Friday night into Saturday morning as a low pressure system lifts northeastwards through the Prairies. It’s still far too early to speak towards the system in much detail at all, other than saying the bulk of it looks to happen during the overnight period. Some models, such as the pictured output from the GDPS[1] really wind the system up and produce significant quantities of rain or snow while others lift the system much further north with little precipitation development. We’ll have more details on precipitation type and how much of what to expect later on in the week.
The bigger news is that this system marks a significant pattern shift as the upper level ridge we mentioned at the beginning of the article begins developing and pushing eastwards. As it does so, warmer air looks set to flood the Prairies, quickly launching our temperatures back towards seasonal to above-seasonal. Sunday will have temperatures close to normal[2] and we might see it get as warm as the low-to-mid teens on Monday, if we can manage to work past our snow cover.
Multiple days of near-to-just-above freezing temperatures coupled with the strong April sun should do quick work to melt the remaining snowpack across much of the Red River Valley. Melt will be minimal until the weekend, but even one or two days with temperatures in the 5-10°C range will do quick work with much of the remaining snow. Once we can eliminate the snow pack, extremely abnormal cold will be much harder to come by and it will be much easier to see seasonal temperatures.
Global Deterministic Prediction System – Canada’s long-term forecast model. ↩
Seasonal temperatures for Winnipeg currently are around 11°C for a daytime high and 0°C for an overnight low. ↩
This week will see one last wintry blast in southern Manitoba before spring finally arrives for good.
A surface ridge of high pressure will bring cold weather to southern Manitoba to start the week
Monday
Monday
-7°C / -18°C
Mainly sunny. Chance of flurries.
Today will likely be the coldest day of the week. High temperatures will be in the upper minus single digits, with a chance of flurries. This chance of flurries will arise from low-level instability that will develop as the surface warms during the day. To top it all off, there will be a breezy north-west wind – great!
Tuesday
Tuesday
-5°C / -15°C
Increasing cloudiness. Slight chance of flurries.
A low pressure system will pass to our south on Tuesday, allowing a cool north-easterly flow to remain established over southern Manitoba. Luckily, that system should remain far enough south to prevent us from seeing any more snow, although a couple of flurries can’t be ruled out.
Wednesday
Wednesday
-4°C / -17°C
Mix of sun and cloud. Chance of flurries.
A brisk northerly flow will remain in southern Manitoba on Wednesday, making for another cold day. High temperatures will be in the mid minus single digits, and there will once again be a chance of flurries.
Record Cold?
With the cold weather that’s expected this week, we will be challenging some cold weather records. The table below shows the record values for the next several days:
Record Cold Minimum and Maximum Temperatures
Date
Record Low
Record Cold High
Monday April 14
-16.7°C (1893)
-7.8°C (1880)
Tuesday April 15
-16.7°C (1893)
-6.7°C (1875)
Wednesday April 16
-16.7°C (1875)
-4.4°C (1910)
Thursday April 17
-13.3°C (1953)
-3.3°C (1953)
It looks like we will come close to setting new records on each of the days listed in the table. Stay tuned to see if we manage to actually break any records!
Long Range
The long range forecast calls for increasing temperatures as we move into the weekend. We’ll likely see seasonal temperatures (i.e. low teens) return by the weekend into next week. There is currently no strong prospective of above-normal weather, but we’ll probably see at least a couple seasonably warm days before the month is out.
Record Low Temperatures Broken
A large swath of record low temperatures were set on the morning of April 15, 2014 across the province of Manitoba thanks to a strong Arctic ridge of high pressure sprawled over the region. Overnight lows were 10-20°C below normal throughout the province. Winnipeg did not set a new record low, however some other locations in the Red River Valley did.
Record Low Temperatures set on April 15, 2014
Site
New Record
Old Record (Year)
Berens River
–23.8°C
–19.6 (1997)
Carberry
–14.2°C
–12.9 C (2000)
Carman
–15 C
–11.4 C (2000)
Fisher Branch
–20.4 C
–11.8 C (2000)
Flin Flon
–20.5 C
–16 (1997)
George Island
–19.5 C
–16.8 C (1997)
Grand Rapids
–24.4 C
–13 (1997)
Island Lake
–20.7 C
–20.6 C (2000)
McCreary
–13.7 C
–12 (2000)
Oak Point Marine
–19.7 C
–11.9 (1997)
Pinawa
–21 C
–12 (2000)
Roblin
–11.4 C
–11.3 C (1997)
Shoal Lake
–11.5 C
–10.2 C (2000)
Sprague
–16 C
–10.8 C (2000)
The Pas
–20.5 C
–18 C (1986)
Thompson
–27.3 C
–23.4 C (1985)
Victoria Beach
–20 C
–11 C (2000)
Wasagaming
–15.5 C
–15 C (1978)
More record lows will be at the risk of being broken as the week progresses.
