After being inundated with disturbance after disturbance and many areas in the province seeing a fresh 10-20cm of snow, a ridge of high pressure is building into the region and will bring a benign break from the snow at the cost of slightly cooler temperatures.
Friday
-10°C / -22°C
Clearing early & breezy.
Saturday
-9°C / ⇑ -7°C
Mainly sunny.
Sunday
+1°C / -5°C ⇑
Partly cloudy.
Skies will clear early this morning as breezing northwesterly winds – at 30-40km/h – draw in cooler air to the Red River Valley. Here in Winnipeg we’ll see a high around -9°C. Temperatures will drop into the -20’s tonight as we sit under that ridge of high pressure mentioned above. Saturday will bring mainly sunny skies with a high near -8°C and winds around 15-20km/h shifting to be out of the southwest.
Saturday night will drop to only around -10°C early in the night and then warm up to around -7°C as warmer air starts pushing into Manitoba from the west. We’ll enjoy a warm day with cloudy periods on Sunday as temperatures climb above the freezing mark to +1°C. Temperatures will fall only around -5°C thanks to cloudy skies overnight.
Those cloudy skies Sunday night will be the result of low pressure system pushing across the Prairies. It will bring the potential for some shower or flurry activity to Winnipeg on Monday, however the bulk of precipitation looks to remain further north.
Overall, a nice weekend ahead! Get out there and enjoy it!
March will be coming in like a lion as one of the coldest winters in our lifetimes continues on with no end in sight. Some of the coldest temperatures of the season are poised to return as yet another reinforcing blast of Arctic air slumps southwards over the region.
Friday
-19°C / -35°C
Flurries ending midday then clearing and windy.
Saturday
-25°C / -32°C
Sunny & cold.
Sunday
-22°C / -30°C
Sunny.
Flurries Give Way to Deep Freeze
A weak inverted trough moving through Southern Manitoba this morning is spreading flurries across the entire region. The remainder of the snow and cloud will clear out midday as we head to a daytime high of -19°C. Unfortunately, the clearing skies are symptomatic of a brutal blast of Arctic air slumping southwards that will bring us yet another night with overnight lows dipping towards the -35°C range.
850mb temperatures show the next lobe of very cold air slumping into the Southern Prairies.
As we move onto the backside of the inverted trough this afternoon, strong northerly winds will move into the region – increasing to 30-40km/h with gusts to 60km/h – and produce localized blowing snow throughout the entire Red River Valley. The situation will resemble the clearing and strong winds we received on Wednesday, however today won’t be as intense as that event.
Winds will taper off this evening alongside our plummeting temperatures as another Arctic ridge of high pressure makes its way into the region. This ridge of high pressure will be driven by a lobe of extremely cold air aloft rotating southwards over the Prairies. Temperatures at 700mb through the core of the cold air is forecast to be in the -35 to -40°C range which puts it as the coldest air in the entirety of the northern hemisphere. This extremely cold air will push our overnight low to around -35°C and combine with winds that will remain around 15km/h to produce extreme wind chill values in the -45 to -50 range.
Sunny and Cold Weekend
Conditions through the rest of the weekend will be benign and cold. Mainly sunny skies will dominate with winds generally between 15-25km/h. Saturday’s daytime high of -25°C will be some 20°C below the seasonal daytime high for this time of year. Sunday will warm to around -21 or -22°C for a daytime high, still well below normal. Overnight lows will dip just below -30°C both nights.
Cold Weather Continues
Unseasonably cold weather will continue through the next week as temperatures very slowly warm. By the end of next week temperatures look to climb back to around -10°C with the chance for a couple of shots of snow through the second half of the week.
The NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook
It does look like this miserable pattern begins to break down next weekend into the following week, allowing more seasonal air to push back into our region. The NAEFS 8-14 day temperature outlook is also picking up on the pattern change and finally showing a return to seasonal temperatures.
So be brave; we only need to make it one more week and what is almost surely the last extreme cold snap of the season will be past. This winter has been brutal and will easily sit in the top 3 coldest winters of the last 100 years. Lets all hope that we can shift into a steadier mild pattern through mid-March and start getting rid of this snow.
A deep trough of cold air anchored over Hudson Bay will lock Southern Manitoba into a strong northerly flow that will keep us stuck in abnormally cold weather well into March. This latest blast of cold weather will ensure that the winter of 2013/2014 ends up as the coldest in 35 years[1] and as one of the 15 coldest winters on record[2].
Wednesday
-17°C / -34°C
Chance of morning flurries, then very windy w/blowing snow.
Thursday
-21°C / -26°C
Sunny. Increasing cloud & flurries overnight.
Friday
-21°C / -34°C
Flurries ending midday then clearing.
The Red River Valley is in for a rude return to the deep freeze today as a cold front rips through the Red River Valley bringing very strong winds with it. There’s a very slight chance of some light flurries in this morning’s cloud but it’s likely any precipitation that might develop will remain north or east of the valley. The bigger story is the cold front that will push through around lunch time today.
A deep unstable layer will develop this afternoon in the wake of the cold front.
The passage of the cold front will clear out the skies but bring with it very strong winds, increasing out of the north/northwest to 50km/h. A deep layer of instability, shown on the right in the forecast sounding, will work in two ways:
It will promote gusty winds which will mean in addition to the sustained winds at 40-50km/h, it’s quite likely we’ll see gusts in the 60-70km/h range.
The instability will help “loft” ice crystals and snow which is helpful in generating blowing snow.
Other than making it feel miserably cold, the wind will work together with the relatively dry snowpack in the area to produce blowing snow. I’m unsure of exactly what the snowpack surface’s nature is right now, but I think it’s safe to say that with winds as strong as we’ll see, some blowing snow is inevitable. I don’t foresee a full-scale blizzard or anything of the sort, but localized white-out conditions are certainly possible. If you’re travelling on area highways this afternoon, be aware of the potential for poor driving conditions.
The winds will ease off through the night as an Arctic ridge of high pressure pushes into the region. Temperatures will plummet close to -35°C through the Red River Valley by tomorrow morning as we become entrenched in bitterly cold air once again.
Tomorrow will bring mainly sunny skies, relatively light winds and a high near -21°C. A weak inverted trough will begin pushing into Southern Manitoba late late in the day and will spread cloud and light flurries into Winnipeg and the Red River Valley overnight. Temperatures will drop only to around -25 or -26°C overnight thanks to the cloud cover.
Friday morning will see the light flurry activity tapering off with clearing skies towards midday as the trough pushes off to the east. With the sunshine will come wind once again, with north/northwesterly winds at 30-40km/h picking up through the afternoon. We’ll climb once again to around -21°C as a high
Entrenched
The NAEFS 8-14 day temperature outlook.
Buckle up for the long haul; the cold air will be settling into the region for an extended stay. All long-range outlooks – including the NAEFS above – are forecasting below-normal temperatures into the second week of March. Of note is how far below-normal we’ll be this week. The seasonal high for this time of year is around -6°C, and with forecast highs of -21°C, we’ll be some 15°C below normal.
So keep the long johns out, plug in the car and keep warm!
This week will feature some of the warmest weather we’ve seen in a long time – it’s about time!
A warming trend will occur across southern Manitoba on Monday
Early Week
Monday
-2°C / -10°C
Mainly Sunny
Tuesday
0°C / -14°C
Mainly Sunny
Wednesday
-1°C / -7°C
Increasing Cloudiness. Chance of Flurries Late.
Today will see temperatures climb up towards the freezing mark in southern Manitoba. That will make for messy roads, but that’s the price you have to pay for warmer weather. The wind will be light and from the west to south-east, making for a great day.
Tuesday will be very similar to Monday, with temperatures once again near zero. There will be a breezy west wind, but otherwise it will be a very nice day.
Wednesday looks to remain seasonably warm, with high temperatures once again, you guessed it, near zero. However, a low pressure system will move towards the region on Wednesday, bringing increasing clouds and a chance for flurries by late in the day. Thankfully, major snow accumulations are not currently expected with this system.
Long Range
That low pressure system from Wednesday will pull down another cold airmass for the late week period. As a result, long-range models suggest we’ll see a colder pattern lasting at least through next weekend.
