Tag: Flurries

Mixed Bag Ahead

Brad Leave a comment

A bit of a grab bag of unexceptional weather is on it’s way for Winnipeg and the Red River Valley as the cold air’s grip loosens ever so slightly before returning to the region, bringing flurries with it.

Wednesday
-18°C / -25°C
Mixed skies; chance of flurries.

Thursday
-12°C / -20°C
Warmer; cloudy end to the day with some flurries.

Friday
-14°C / -23°C
Mixed skies; chance of flurries.

We’ll see mixed skies today as patchy low cloud continues to stream southwards out of the Arctic across the Prairies. Any of this cloud has the slight chance of producing some fairly insignificant flurries. Our temperature will remain cool today with a high of around -18°C and will drop to around -25°C tonight.

Tomorrow will bring warmer weather as a fairly strong low pressure system moving over Southampton Island manages to push some slightly milder air through the Northern Prairies and southeastwards into Southern Manitoba. We’ll see temperatures climb up to a near-normal high of -12°C or so with mixed skies before the clouds thicken up through the afternoon and some flurries slide into the Red River Valley and southeastern Manitoba. No significant accumulations are expected.

Friday will bring mixed skies once again with a chance of scattered light flurries. Temperatures will only cool off slightly thanks to the cloud cover and we’ll see a high of around -15 or -14°C. Temperatures will drop off to around -23°C or so overnight under mainly clear skies.

Continued Below-Normal Temperatures

The NAEFS 8-14 day temperature outlook is beginning to show signs of near-normal temperatures returning.
The NAEFS 8-14 day temperature outlook is beginning to show signs of near-normal temperatures returning.

Unfortunately, it’s still looking like below-normal temperatures[1] will persist through Southern Manitoba for at least the next week or two. A persistent northerly/northwesterly flow is showing no signs at all of breaking down and will continually reinforce the Arctic air in our region, maintaining the cool weather. While we may see short-lived near-normal breaks, the overall trend will be decidedly cool through the next two weeks. No significant snowfall events are expected through the next week.

Once we hit the 1.5 to 2 week mark, though, things are starting to look like they might begin to moderate a little bit and we might climb a lot closer to normal for mid-February. Any warm-up would likely mean a return to snowier weather as well, so we may see a stormier end to the month than we’ll see through the first half.

  1. The normal daytime high at this time of year in Winnipeg is -10°C. The normal overnight low is -21°C.  ↩

Extreme Cold on The Way Out

Brad Leave a comment

A clipper system tracking through Southern Manitoba today will bring near-normal temperatures and a very slight chance of a flurry through the early afternoon. Once the system passes through, we’re going to settle into a fairly stable pattern as a dome of cold air settles over Hudson Bay, keeping us in a benign but cool pattern for the remainder of the week.

Wednesday
-11°C / -25°C
Cloudy; a marginal chance of midday flurries. Clearing later in the day.

Thursday
-20°C / -25°C
Mainly sunny.

Friday
-18°C / -22°C
A few clouds.

Today will bring relatively mild weather as temperatures climb up to -11°C or so thanks to a weak clipper system tracking through Central Manitoba that is dragging some warmer air with it as it pushes through. We’ll see mainly cloudy conditions through the morning and early afternoon with clouds then clearing out late in the afternoon or early this evening. There’s a very slight chance of a flurry or two starting midday and through the early afternoon, but the risk is very slight at that. Any organized snowfall should remain to our north and to our east, but even there only around 2cm is expected. By mid-afternoon there will be essentially no threat of snow and the clearing will begin.

This 700mb temperature chart for Saturday evening shows the dome of cold Arctic air set to settle over Hudson Bay.
This 700mb temperature chart for Saturday evening shows the dome of cold Arctic air set to settle over Hudson Bay.

As the clipper system pushes off into Ontario, cooler air will begin filtering into Manitoba. We’ll see temperatures drop to around -25°C tonight with a modest recovery to around -20°C tomorrow under mainly sunny skies. The temperature will drop to around -25°C once again tomorrow night under clear skies. Friday looks to climb a little bit warmer to around -18°C with some afternoon clouds as a very weak disturbance whips across the province. Slightly warmer air aloft will bump up our overnight low a few degrees to around -22°C or so under clear skies once again.

More of the same (perhaps cooling off a little) is in store for the weekend. No significant snowfall events[1], in Winnipeg or the Red River Valley, are expected right through to the end of next week.

  1. “Significant” in this case meaning 2cm or more.  ↩

Cold, Cold, Cold

Brad Leave a comment

This week will see a return to frigid weather, the likes of which we haven’t seen consistently since early this month.

Monday will be very cold as an arctic air mass remains entrenched over southern Manitoba

Monday will be very cold as an arctic air mass remains entrenched over southern Manitoba

Monday

Monday
-25°C / -33°C
Mainly Sunny

Monday will feature extreme cold weather. High temperatures in Southern Manitoba will be in the mid minus twenties, with wind chill values in the upper minus thirties or lower minus forties for much of the day. Temperatures will plunge on Monday night, as will wind chills – don’t forget to plug in your car!

Tuesday

Tuesday
-21°C / -25°C
Mainly Sunny

Wake-up temperatures on Tuesday will be brutal. Air temperatures will be in the low to mid minus thirties, with wind chills making it feel more like the mid minus forties. However, it appears that we will warm up a fair bit during the day on Tuesday. It won’t be warm by any means, but temperatures should climb close to -20C by late afternoon. A southerly flow will develop on Tuesday night, preventing another night of extreme cold.

Wednesday

Wednesday
-11°C / -25°C
Mainly Cloudy. Chance of Flurries.

Wednesday should be the warmest day of the week, as that southerly flow temporarily brings some relief to this cold snap. Daytime highs on Wednesday look to be in the low minus teens, which will make it feel like relatively warm day. Unfortunately, another cold front will blow through Southern Manitoba during the day on Wednesday, bringing a renewed push of arctic air. We may see a bit of snow on Wednesday due to a passing weather system, but amounts will be small.

Long Range

The NAEFS model suggests that we're in for a prolonged cold snap.

The NAEFS model suggests that we’re in for a prolonged cold snap.

The long range forecast looks really bad. For the first time since the beginning of this month there are strong indications of another prolonged cold snap. Long range models suggest this cold weather will last into the beginning of February for sure, but perhaps longer than that. We’ll just have to hope the models are wrong.

Mild Weekend Welcome, But A Mixed Bag Otherwise

Brad Leave a comment

Temperatures over the next few days will be positively balmy for early January in Winnipeg as daytime highs near -5°C over the next few days keep us well over the normal high of around -13°C for this time of year. The warm temperatures are a welcome reprieve from the bitter cold that has gripped the province over the last month, but the other aspects of the weather will be a bit of a mixed bag over the next few days as multiple low pressure systems move through the region.

Friday
-5°C / -15°C
Cloudy with flurries beginning midday. Clearing overnight.
Saturday
-7°C / -12°C
Mixed skies and a bit cooler.
Sunday
-3°C / -15°C
Mixed skies with a chance of flurries in the morning and evening.

Today will be a pleasant day with fairly light winds and a high of around -5°C. Skies will remain cloudy through the day and we’ll likely see some scattered flurries develop through the Red River Valley midday as a very weak low pressure system pushes through. This evening will see any remaining flurries push off to our east with clouds scattering out overnight as we drop to a low of around -15°C.

Saturday will be a slightly cooler, thanks to a weak ridge passing over the Red River Valley, but nice day with a mixed sky and a high near -7°. We’ll drop only to around -12°C Saturday night as a warm front moves through the area associated with an incoming clipper system from Alberta. A band of light snow should push through the Red River Valley overnight into early Sunday morning with no real significant accumulations other than perhaps a couple centimetres here or there; the bulk of the snowfall will remain in the Interlake where around 2-5cm of snow is expected. Perhaps the bigger impact of the system will be the strong winds that move into the region on Saturday night; we’ll see them increase out of the south to 40 gusting 60km/h which will likely produce some blowing snow on highways throughout the Red River Valley.

After things clear out on Sunday morning we’ll actually be in for quite a nice day with a high near -3°C. Skies will be mixed for much of the day before more cloud moves into the area in the evening hours as a cold front slumps southwards towards the Red River Valley. The chance for some light flurry activity will re-emerge on Sunday evening with the passage of the cold front but as with the rest of the features this weekend, no significant amounts are expected.

Warmer weather is expected to continue through much of next week. A storm system is currently forecast to move through on Wednesday night, which could bring blizzard conditions to the Red River Valley thanks to very strong northwesterly winds, will likely bring cooler weather for the week’s end. We’re no longer in a relatively static upper-level pattern, though, so the cold air will continue trundling off to the east fairly quickly instead of sitting around here for a prolonged period.