Tag: Flurries

The Deep Freeze Loosens Its Grip

Brad Leave a comment

After suffering through the 6th coldest December on record and a January that has seen all but one night drop below –30°C, a reprieve from winter’s icy grip is on the horizon as the upper air pattern finally shifts and allows some warmer air to spill eastwards into Manitoba.

Wednesday

-23°C / ↗ -16°C
Mainly sunny. Light snow with strong winds overnight.
Thursday

-8°C / -10°C
Light snow and strong winds tapering off in the morning then cloudy.
Friday

-3°C / -9°C
Mixed skies with chance of flurries in the evening.

Wednesday

Today will be the last sub-minus 20 day we’ll see this week! Our temperature will climb from our overnight low around –32°C up to around –23°C this afternoon under mainly sunny skies. We’ll see increasing cloud late in the afternoon or through the early evening as a warm front approaches from Saskatchewan. Temperatures will continue to rise overnight as the warmer air pushes into the province; we should rise to around –15°C by tomorrow morning.

In addition to the warmer air, we’ll also likely see some light snow move in with the cloud. The light snow will start overnight and taper off through Thursday morning. Amounts will be fairly minimal; here in Winnipeg we might see as much as a whopping 1–2cm while the southern Red River Valley will likely just see a few flurries with no significant accumulation.

Models are forecasting a very strong inversion over Winnipeg on Thursday morning; the large temperature contrast will produce very strong southerly winds.
Models are forecasting a very strong inversion over Winnipeg on Thursday morning; the large temperature contrast will produce very strong southerly winds.

The other significant weather tonight will be the increasing southerly winds. As the warm front approaches from the west, very warm air aloft will push into the Red River Valley. Temperatures at 850mb are expected to rise from around –15°C on Wednesday evening to close to 0°C by Thursday morning. With dense, cold Arctic air still in the Red River Valley, this strong temperature inversion will induce stronger winds than just the pressure gradient would imply. It’s difficult to pin down, but I think that we’ll see the winds pick up through Wednesday evening to 40–50km/h by Thursday morning with gusts as high as 60–70km/h. If things are able to completely decouple or the Arctic air is miraculously expedited out of the Valley very quickly, then we might see the winds remain calmer, somewhere between 20–30km/h; I don’t think this is particularly likely, though.

Thursday & Friday

We’ll see light snow slowly taper off on Thursday morning and then mainly cloudy skies thereafter. The winds will taper off through the morning to around 15–20km/h and remain there for the remainder of the day. Skies will remain mainly cloudy and we’ll see our temperature climb to a comparatively balmy (and warmer than normal) –8°C. Clouds will scatter out a bit on Thursday evening leaving us with partly cloudy skies and a low near –10°C.

More warm air pushes into the region on Friday as a low pressure system tracking through Central Manitoba drags another shot of warm air eastwards. Our temperature should climb to around –4 or –3°C under increasingly cloudy skies. Winds will be fairly light as well which will make it quite a pleasant day. Some light flurry activity is possible Friday evening and overnight into Saturday as we drop to a low near –10°C once again.

The Weekend

More warm weather is ahead for the weekend with daytime highs near –5°C on Saturday and possibly breaking 0°C on Sunday as a low pressure system winds up over the region, bringing potentially an inch or two of snow and a slight risk of some freezing rain. Mild temperatures continue into next week, so enjoy a nice break from the cold!

Santa Delivers A Break From the Deep Freeze

Brad Leave a comment

Merry Christmas!

All of us here at A Weather Moment would like to take just a moment to wish you and your families a very Merry Christmas! It’s been a wonderful year here at A Weather Moment and I want to thank you for dropping by — whether this is the first time you’ve ever been to the site or come here regularly — to see what we have to say about the weather. I hope that you find (or continue to find!) what we do here of value and continue to stop by for your weather forecasts, summaries and news!

Holiday Forecast

At the risk of sounding like a broken record that simply utters the phrase “deep freeze” over and over again, I’m glad to let everyone know that we all get perhaps the most wonderful Christmas gift that could be given to us this year: a break from the deep freeze. The next few days will bring temperatures near-then-surpassing our normal temperatures for this year as warmer air floods eastwards across the Prairies.

Christmas Day

-15°C / -25°C
Mixed skies with a chance of afternoon flurries.
Boxing Day

-11°C / ⇒ -10°C
Cloudy periods with seasonal temperatures. Chance of flurries in the morning.
Friday

-4°C / -17°C
Mixed skies and warm. Slight chance of light, isolated flurries.

We’ll see mixed skies today with a daytime high of around –15°C and a chance of some afternoon flurry activity as a weak upper disturbance makes it’s way over our area. No significant accumulations are expected. Winds will be a fairly steady 20km/h or so out of the northwest. We’ll continue to see mixed skies through the overnight period as the temperature drops to around –25°C.

Tomorrow will bring cloudy periods with fairly seasonal temperatures as the mercury climbs to around –11°C. A few flurries are possible in the morning as a weak upper-level warm front pushes eastwards over the Red River Valley. Winds will be fairly light out of the south at only around 15–20km/h. Overcast conditions are expected on Thursday night as a warm front pushes eastwards through the region. Little-to-no precipitation is expected with it as it manages to keep our temperature steady near around –10°C.

Friday will again bring mixed skies, although we do have a chance at becoming mainly sunny for a decent amount of time sometime between the late morning and mid-afternoon period. There’s a slight chance of an isolated flurry or two, but nothing worth going into any detail about. The temperature will climb to a balmy –4°C or so thanks to westerly winds bringing in much milder air.

GDPS precipitation accumluations from Friday evening to Saturday evening show a swath of 10-20cm of snow just north of Winnipeg.
GDPS precipitation accumluations from Friday evening to Saturday evening show a swath of 10–20cm of snow just north of Winnipeg.

Snow will push in overnight as a powerful Alberta Clipper moves into the region. It’s still too early to make any precise predictions, but it appears that the track of the system will bring the heaviest band of snow through the Southern Interlake region with anywhere from 10–20cm of new snow on the ground by the end of Saturday. Amounts drop off to 2–5cm in the Southern Red River Valley. Here in Winnipeg it could end up being a major snowfall; cold air has a tendency to be a bit of a bigger bully than the models let it be and shift storm tracks further south. It wouldn’t take too much shifting for that 10–20cm band to move right over Winnipeg. It’s all too early to tell specifics at the moment, though; it’s fairly likely we’ll see accumulating snow Friday night/Saturday morning, the only question is will it be a little or a lot? We’ll have more details on the system in Friday’s post once things have a chance to develop more.

The Weekend

Things go downhill from there, unfortunately. Another shot of bitterly cold Arctic air[1] will push into the Prairies which will push our daytime highs back into the –20’s and overnight lows to near or below –30°C. Unfortunately, it also looks like it’s going to stick around until at least the middle of next week, if not longer.

So enjoy your Christmas present of a pretty nice 3 days and get out there while you can! From all of us here at A Weather Moment, we wish you and your families a very Merry Christmas and all the best in the coming year!

  1. Have we used this phrase enough to be able to ™ it yet?  ↩

Cold Weekend Ahead

Brad Leave a comment

Cold temperatures will dominate as Arctic air once again finds itself entrenched over Southern Manitoba. Snow will make an early weekend appearance as a weak disturbance pushes across the province on Saturday, but it won’t be a significant weather-maker.

Friday

-17°C / -24°C
A Mix of Sun and Clouds
Saturday

-20°C / -26°C
Mostly cloudy; scattered flurries likely.
Sunday

-20°C / -24°C
A few clouds.

Temperatures are going to remain fairly steady through the next few days with daytime highs near –20°C and overnight lows dipping to around –25°C. Today we’ll see a mix of sun and cloud as the next disturbance set to track through our region begins taking shape over the western Prairies. Skies will cloud over completely overnight with a chance of flurries.

The light grey shading depicts areas across Southern Manitoba that will likely see some light flurries on Saturday
The light grey shading depicts areas across Southern Manitoba that will likely see some light flurries on Saturday.

Saturday will bring mostly cloudy skies although a few sunny breaks are possible. Scattered flurries are fairly likely throughout most areas along and south of the Trans-Canada Highway in Southern Manitoba. At this point it seems like accumulations will be practically non-existent; there’s a slight place some places may see a cm so, but a significant snow-maker this system is not. The light snow will taper off in the evening as the system moves off and the clouds begin to break up.

Behind this system we’ll see another Arctic high push into Southern Manitoba. This will clear out the cloud, but once again bring cold temperatures with a high of only –21 or –20°C. The mercury will drop to –25°C or so overnight. There may be a very slight chance we may see some flurries thanks to another system passing to our southwest, but at this point I have a feeling that “cold air is king” and it will be restricted to southwest Manitoba. Keep it in mind, but even if it did happen, it would once again be just a few non-accumulating light flurries.

Looking Towards Christmas

Next week will start off with some slightly milder temperatures as a powerful low pressure moving along north of 60 drags warmer air eastwards across the Prairies with it. At this point it looks like we’ll see warmest temperatures on Christmas Eve with snow moving in through the day and a snow Christmas Eve night. Christmas Day is looking like a snowy start will give way to clear skies and cold temperatures. We’ll have the full forecast for the holidays on Monday!

A Brief Reprieve From the Deep Freeze

Brad Leave a comment

After a record cold morning on Sunday, we’ll see a dramatic warm-up to start the week.

Temperatures Will be Warming Up on Monday

Temperatures Will be Warming Up on Monday

Monday

Monday

Chance of Flurries in the Morning, then Clearing
-5°C / -14°C

Today will be the warmest day of the week with temperatures climbing into the minus single digits. There may be a few flurries in the morning, before skies clear later in the day. It will be a windy day too, as westerly winds help to bring in that warmer air. Winds will be 20-30km/h gusting to 40-50km/h.

Tuesday

Tuesday

Mainly Sunny
-13°C / -15°C

Temperatures will cool down a bit for Tuesday, with highs in the low minus teens. It will not be as windy as Monday though, so conditions will remain fairly pleasant.

Wednesday

Wednesday

Mainly cloudy. Chance of flurries.
-8°C / -24°C

A low pressure system is expected to pass through Manitoba on Wednesday, signalling the beginning of the end of this little warm spell. At this point it appears that this system will pass far enough to our north that we won’t see much, if any, snow with it – although that may change. Temperatures on Wednesday look to be around -10C with fairly light winds. A cold front associated with this low will move through Southern Manitoba on Wednesday afternoon and evening, allowing another arctic airmass to surge into the region.

Long Range

Models suggest we will continue to see arctic air dominate our weather until Christmas. There may be the odd break in the deep freeze here and there, but in general there are no lengthly warm-ups currently in our future.