Tag: Flurries

Warming Up, Then Cooling Down

Brad Leave a comment

After a snowy, but mild weekend, we’ll see some warmer weather return – but it will be short-lived.

A southerly flow will bring slightly warmer air to Southern Manitoba on Monday

Monday

Monday

Mix of Sun and Cloud. Chance of flurries/showers
-1°C / -4°C

A southerly flow will develop through Southern Manitoba on Monday, bringing some slightly warmer weather along with it. There may be a few flurries on Monday, but no significant precipitation is expected. The wind will be relatively light and from the south.

Tuesday

Tuesday

Mainly cloudy.
3°C / 0°C

Tuesday will be warmer than Monday, as a developing low pressure system ramps up that southerly flow from Monday. Hopefully Tuesday’s warm conditions will allow some of the weekend’s snowfall to melt. The wind won’t be much stronger than on Monday, but the direction will shift to be more from the south-east.

Wednesday

Wednesday

Decreasing Cloudiness. Temperature Falling.
-6°C / -14°C

The low pressure system that brought the warmer weather to Southern Manitoba on Tuesday will move into the region on Wednesday. It appears that this system will generate an area of moderate snowfall to the north of its track, but no precipitation to the south of its track. At this point it appears the system will track in a fashion that results in no snowfall for most of Southern Manitoba, save for perhaps some parts of Western Manitoba. Regardless of whether or not this system brings us snowfall, it will bring us colder weather. A strong cold front associated with this low will bring down another arctic airmass, dropping temperatures well below zero for Wednesday and Thursday.

Long Range

The long range forecast currently looks on the cold side. Following the passage of that cold front on Wednesday models don’t hint at any immediate return to warmer conditions. Bear in mind that we are quickly moving into late November, so warm weather will being harder and harder to come by. On the bright side there is still no significant snow in the forecast, so we’re not in a true winter pattern quite yet!

One Warm Day Before Flurries

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Southern Manitoba will bask in temperatures well above-normal today before a cold front slumping southwards across the Prairies pushes through on Thursday, bringing seasonal weather back to the region.

Wednesday

9°C / -2°C
Warm and windy under a mixed sky.
Thursday

0°C / -6°C
Cloudy with flurries.
Friday

5°C / -4°C
Warming up with under a mixed sky.

Today

We’ll see a beautiful – albeit windy – day today as warm air washes over the Red River Valley. We’ll see winds out of the west at 30–50km/h as our temperature soars almost a whole 10°C above normal for this time of year to a daytime high of 8 or 9°C. We’ll see a mixed sky, but no precipitation is expected and this will almost certainly be the warmest temperatures in the area for the next long while.

Thursday

Our warm weather will be relatively short-lived, however, as a cold front dipping southwards across the Prairies pushes through on Thursday morning. With it’s passage, we’ll see much cooler daytime highs of only around 0°C under cloudy skies. The wind will be out of the northwest at 20–40km/h. We’ll also see flurries through the day, but no accumulations are expected. The flurries will taper off overnight as we drop to around –6°C.

Friday

Friday will see the return of warmer air as a rapidly deepening low pressure system north of 60 draws warmer air northwards over the Eastern Prairies. We’ll see our temperature here in Winnipeg climb to around 5°C with south/southwesterly winds developing through the day to 20–40km/h.

All in all not a bad few days to have in mid-November. We may see our first significant accumulating snow this weekend if a complex of low pressure systems align properly, but at this point there’s far too much uncertainty to say that much of a risk yet. We’ll see how things develop through the week and report back on Friday!

Snow On The Way

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A low pressure system pushing eastwards across the Southern Prairies and the Northern Plains will spread snow and rain into Southern Manitoba today.  Amounts are not expected to be significant in the Red River Valley – especially in areas near the international border – but it will be one of the first “snowy” days of the year.


Total forecast precipitation (liquid-eqivalent) from Friday morning to Saturday morning.
Total forecast precipitation (liquid-eqivalent) from Friday morning to Saturday morning.

Today

Friday

2°C / -2°C
Cloudy with light snow beginning this afternoon.

Precipitation will begin pushing into the southern Red River Valley later this morning and into the northern half of the valley, including Winnipeg, this afternoon as the low pressure system begins working it’s way into the region.  Precipitation will fall mainly as snow through the northern half of the Red River Valley while in the southern half of the valley some light rain will be more likely. Naturally there will be a transition zone somewhere in the central RRV where amounts will not be too significant with only a cm or two falling here in Winnipeg at most.  Further south, up to a 3–4mm of rain could fall.  Light snow will taper off in the evening leaving behind a chance of some flurry activity through the overnight hours.  We’ll see a low dipping just below 0°C.

The Weekend

Saturday

2°C / -6°C
Mainly cloudy; chance of flurries.

Saturday will be a mainly cloudy day with a slight chance of flurries throughout as cool, somewhat unstable air continues to push south behind the low.  No significant accumulations are expected and we’ll climb to a high of around 2°C.  The winds will be a somewhat gusty 30km/h out of the northwest through the day.  Through the overnight things will be mainly cloudy, although a few breaks in the cloud are expected, as we dip to a low of about –6°C.

Sunday

-2°C / -13°C
Mixed skies; slight chance of isolated morning flurries.

On Sunday skies will improve while temperatures do not.  We’ll see a mixed sky with a high of only –1 or –2°C.  A few light flurries may be possible in Winnipeg in the morning as we may be just grazed by a weak system passing through the Interlake.  Cooler air will continue to filter southwards through the day and drop us to a very chilly –12 or –13°C on Sunday night under mainly clear skies.

After that, a fairly sunny, cool and quiet week is ahead next week as a large arctic ridge dominates the weather over the Eastern Prairies.

Cool & Quiet; Light Snow To End the Week?

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We’ll stay the course with cool, benign weather through the remainder of the week as weather systems stay well to our north and south.

Wednesday

1°C / -8°C
Cool; mixed skies.
Thursday

1°C / -7°C
Mainly sunny.
Friday

1°C / -5°C
Cloudy; chance of snow in the afternoon.

Today and tomorrow with both bring a high near 1°C, albeit with mixed skies today and mainly sunny skies tomorrow.  Tonight and tomorrow will both drop down into the low minus single digits.

Friday will bring the next chance for snow to our area as a low pressure system pushes across the Southern Prairies.  Skies will cloud up early in the morning and temperatures will climb to 1 or 2°C.  By the afternoon, the chance for some light snow will push into Winnipeg and the Red River Valley.  The chance for light snow looks to last through Friday night and into Saturday morning, perhaps even into Saturday afternoon.  The snow potential for Friday and Friday night looks the best with the chance for some stronger bands, while on Saturday it seems like there’s just a slight risk for some light flurry activity.  That being said, it still only looks like perhaps a cm or two at most would fall over the region, if any at all.

The main uncertainty with the snow for Friday centres around the fact that as the system approaches Southern Manitoba, a second low is forecast to develop through the Dakotas which will consolidate the heavier snow down towards it. At this point, it looks like the heaviest snowfall (perhaps as much as 1-1.5 inches) will fall through North Dakota. If the Dakota low ends up tracking a little further north, it’s possible that we’ll see some accumulating snowfall in areas close to the US border. We’ll keep an eye on this system and have an in depth look in Friday’s post.

After that things look like we’ll be settling back into a benign pattern with little activity expected until mid-week and cool temperatures with highs near 0°C.