This week will remain on the cool side, but temperatures won’t be far from normal.
Today will be mainly cloudy with temperatures near the freezing mark. The main weather feature in the short-term will be a low pressure system passing to our south today. This system is expected to spread some light snow throughout southern Manitoba this afternoon into this evening. Accumulations in the Winnipeg region aren’t expected to be more than one or two centimetres, but areas closer to the U.S. border could see somewhat larger amounts. Winds will be from the east at 20-30 km/h.
A low pressure system passing to our south will bring a chance of flurries today
Skies are expected to gradually clear on Tuesday as a dry north-easterly flow develops over southern Manitoba. Temperatures are expected to be just below zero in most areas, which is slightly below seasonal for this time of year. Winds will be north-easterly at 20-30 km/h.
Wednesday will be mainly sunny, with temperatures again just below the freezing mark. A surface high pressure system is expecting to reside over southern Manitoba, allowing for those sunnier skies and light winds.
Long Range
The long range forecast shows generally seasonal to below-seasonal weather through the end of March. There are no large warm-ups currently in the forecast.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 1°C while the seasonal overnight low is -9°C.
The shift back to closer-to-seasonal weather will feel like quite an abrupt change given the marked warmth that’s been in place much of March so far. Fortunately, even with the cooler weather, daytime highs will remain above the freezing mark, and with little snow left and not too much expected to fall, it gets harder and harder for the cold air to stick around[1] as the sun continues to increase in strength.
The low pressure that brought yesterday’s rainfall to the Red River Valley will dominate the weather for two more days before things gradually shift to a more neutral set-up.
Some say what goes up must come down, and while not typically true about the weather, today we’ll see the area of precipitation that pushed northwards into Central Manitoba slump back southwards throughout the day as an inverted trough extending west-northwestward a from the main low pressure system in NW Ontario rotates southwards around the low. This will result in some showers and cooler air pushing into the Red River Valley through the day. As the precipitation moves in from the northeast, the rain will—at some point—switch over to snow. The flurries will continue through the evening and overnight before tapering off on Thursday morning.
12hour preciptation accumulations forecasted for Wednesday afternoon & evening from the RDPS.
Temperatures will climb to around 3-4°C this afternoon and then drop with the cooler air to a low near -3°C tonight. Winds will fairly breezy today out of the northwest at around 30 km/h with gusts up to 50km/h or so. To the southwest of Winnipeg, winds will likely be a bit stronger at 40 gusting 60 km/h. The winds will ease tonight as the axis of the inverted trough moves into the region.
Thursday will be an unexciting day compared to the past week. Any lingering flurries will taper off early in the morning and leave Winnipeg with mainly cloudy skies and temperatures gradually climbing towards a high of 2°C. Winds will be out of the north at 20-30km/h. Skies will remain cloudy tonight as temperatures dip to a low near -3°C with winds slowly easing off.
Friday will once again bring mainly cloudy skies and a high temperature near 3°C. Winds will be light and no precipitation is expected. Skies will remain fairly cloudy on Friday night as the temperature drops to a low near -2°C.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -1°C while the seasonal overnight low is -11°C.
Long Range: Continuing Cloudy, Chance of Flurries
Heading into the weekend, it looks like we’ll likely continue to see a fair amount of cloud as a weak trough remains in the region. While Winnipeg won’t likely see any snow, there is a very slight chance of some flurry activity through the region. Should any snow develop, amounts are expected to be minimal and in most cases likely won’t even accumulate. Temperatures are expected to remain slightly above seasonal.
The weather will turn more active next week as a zonal flow develops aloft and multiple shortwaves ripple across the Prairies. Multiple storm systems are forecast to track through next week, each bringing a mix of wintery precipitation. Temperatures will remain slightly warmer than seasonal through the period.
Snow is so effective at keeping temperatures cool due to its white colour. Snow can reflect much of the sun’s energy, limiting the ability for temperatures to warm up. Once the snow cover is reduced or eliminated, the darker ground absorbs more sun and helps temperatures warm up more quickly. ↩
Above-seasonal temperatures will continue through to the end of the weekend in Winnipeg and the Red River Valley thanks to a continued flow of mild air sourced from the Pacific. Some light snow will be possible Saturday night and into Sunday as a low pressure system moves through the region and brings cooler temperatures to start off next week.
Sunny skies will help temperatures climb to a balmy +1°C this afternoon as mild air spreads eastwards across the province. Winds will remain relatively light out of the southwest at 10-20 km/h. Other than that, there isn’t much to say about today! Enjoy it!
Temperatures will remain mild tonight with southwest winds gradually tapering off and temperatures dipping to just -4°C[1].
Saturday will be another mild day with a daytime high near 0°C. Winds will be very light through much of the day before gradually picking up out of the north later in the afternoon through the evening. The day will start off mainly sunny, but through the afternoon cloud cover will spread southwards as the northerly winds pick up. As the cloud moves in, there will be a slight chance of some flurries, but more organized snowfall will not likely move into the region until the evening.
A low pressure system will bring snow across Mantioba on Saturday night
Snow will fall through much of Saturday night, although accumulations aren’t expected to be particularly significant; 2-3 cm are possible in Winnipeg & the northern Red River Valley, while less than 2 cm is expected through most areas in the Red River Valley south of the Trans-Canada Highway. Temperatures will dip to an overnight low near -12°C with those north winds blowing at 20-30 km/h.
Sunday will be a cloudy day with the northerly winds tapering off and a high near -5°C[2]. A chance of flurries will persist through Winnipeg & the Red River Valley for much of Sunday.
A second chance for more organized snow will return on Sunday night as the next low pressure system moves across the province ahead of another push of cooler air. This system will bring the chance for 2-4 cm of snow across much of the Red River Valley, alongside gusty northerly winds and plummeting temperatures. As the snow moves through, temperatures will fall towards an overnight low near -17°C.
Long Range: Another Brief Cold Snap
Monday will see any remaining snow clear out of Manitoba. Temperatures are a little tricky; depending on the exact timing of Sunday night’s system, temperatures will either see a high in mid-minus teens or fall through the day. Either way, colder air is on the way in and below-normal temperatures are expected for Monday and Tuesday in the wake of Sunday night’s low.
NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid March 4 to March 11, 2016
Heading into mid-week, though, it appears temperatures will quickly trend back towards seasonal values. Little-to-no precipitation is expected through this period. By the end of the week, above normal temperatures are likely to be back in place. Overall, as shown in the NAEFS forecast above, that our below and above normal temperatures next week will lead to an overall near-seasonal temperature regime for the long-range.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -6°C while the seasonal overnight low is -16°C.
A low of -4°C is still 2°C above the seasonal daytime high for this time of year! ↩
There’s some disagreement between models on the positioning of the incoming air mass behind Saturday’s system. There’s a chance that Sunday could be colder with daytime highs closer to -10°C. ↩
Mild weather will continue through the remainder of the week with daytime highs generally 3-6°C above normal for the latter half of February. With limited snow and some sunshine expected, it’s shaping up to be a fairly pleasant few days.
Cloudy skies will be in place over the Red River Valley today as a weak low pressure system slides across the region. Alongside the cloud will be some light flurry activity that’s just enough to be noticeable, but hardly enough to actually leave much of a mark. Winds will be fairly light out of the north-northwest at just 10-15 km/h with temperatures climbing to a high of -2°C. Skies will clear overnight as a weak cold front slumps through Southern Manitoba; temperatures will dip down to around the -11°C mark for the overnight low.
Thursday will be a slightly cooler day as a weak ridge of high pressure moves through the province behind Wednesday’s cold front. It will be a pleasant day, though, with a high temperature near -7°C, light winds and partly cloudy skies. Clouds will thicken up over the Red River Valley by Thursday night as a low pressure system approaches from the northwest.
The GDPS is forecasting near-0°C temperatures for Southern Manitoba on Friday.
Friday’s weather will be very mild as a low pressure system crossing central Manitoba spreads mild air eastwards over the southern half of the province. Westerly winds of 15-25 km/h will push temperatures up to the -2 to 0°C range here in the Red River Valley. Skies will be mainly cloudy with no precipitation expected through the day. A cold front will slump through the region on Friday evening, bringing some scattered flurries and cooler temperatures. Overnight winds will shift out of the north to 20-30 km/h and temperatures will dip to about -9°C by Saturday morning.
Long Range: Cooler & Unsettled
Heading into the weekend, there’s positive agreement that we’ll be heading for cooler temperatures as Arctic air filters southwards. A few flurries may stick around for Saturday morning before the skies clear out. How cold it gets will be largely determined by how a system expected to track through on Sunday develops; some models bring it through Manitoba, keeping temperatures closer to seasonal values and spreading some light snow across the province, while others keep it to the south, giving us clear, cool weather.
NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid March 2 to March 9, 2016
After that it looks like the weather will be relatively quiet with a gradual return towards seasonal temperatures. This is reflected in the NAEFS 8-14 day outlook which shows the above-seasonal temperatures collapsed westwards towards the more prominent west coast upper ridge. Manitoba’s pattern is forecast to be generally northwest, but with multiple shortwaves moving through over the 6-12 day time-frame. This would translate to variable temperatures as we see warmer than normal temperatures as disturbances roll through and then cooler than normal temperatures behind these systems.
All in all, much like we’ve been seeing lately! We’ve hit the point now, though, where we can be happy with near-normal temperatures since normal daytime highs continue to gradually march towards 0°C!
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -6°C while the seasonal overnight low is -16°C.
