Tag: Flurries

Flurries Bring More Cold Weather

Brad Leave a comment

A disturbance passing through southwestern Manitoba today will spread a few flurries into the Red River Valley through the day today, while snow giving accumulations remains to our west where a further 2-4 cm of snow is expected to fall. Another blast of Arctic air will plunge southwards behind this system, plunging temperatures 10-15°C below normal by the end of the week.

A few flurries will be in place throughout Winnipeg and the Red River Valley today as a low pressure system passes through southwestern Manitoba. West of the Valley, through Parkland & southwest Manitoba, the snowfall will be more organized, with between 2 to 4 cm piling up by the end of the day.

Amounts diminish quickly to the east, however, with only a dusting in the Red River Valley. The flurries will taper off by the evening, leaving us with mostly cloudy skies.

Temperature wise, today will be the best day of the week. Daytime highs should climb to around -14°C in Winnipeg today with winds out of the southeast between 10-20 km/h. Temperatures will be cool tonight, but the cloud cover will help moderate things ever so slightly. The overnight low in Winnipeg will fall to near -23°C with light northwesterly winds.

The story for the remainder of the work week is simple: Arctic air building in. Behind Wednesday’s low, an Arctic ridge will build southeastwards, ushering in colder air that will result in temperatures near 10°C below normal by Friday.

GDPS 850mb Temperature Anomaly valid 18Z Friday February 12, 2016
The GDPS is showing 850mb temperatures nearly 10°C below normal for Winnipeg on Friday.

Thursday will be fairly cloudy as we remain relatively close to a strong frontal boundary to our west. As a result, temperatures will be similar to Wednesday but just a degree or two colder. That means in Winnipeg I expect to see a high near -15°C with winds remaining fairly light out of the west to northwest. Some cloud will begin breaking up on Thursday night as the ridge begins pushing into the southern Prairies, and the overnight low will dip to around -25 or -26°C under light northerly winds.

Friday will see clearing as the Arctic ridge moves over Southern Manitoba. This will be the coldest day of the week with high temperatures struggling to climb above -20°C. Friday night will be the coldest night of the week, with temperatures dipping precariously close to the -30°C mark, if not below it. Throughout the whole time, winds will remain light.

Long Range: Big-Time Warm-Up In The Cards?

While the cold weather will likely persist into the weekend, all signs point towards a dramatic warm-up for the beginning of next week and potentially persisting well through the week.

The first of several Pacific-sourced systems is expected to track across the Prairies on Monday, spreading warmer air eastwards as the Polar Vortex begins shifting eastwards. This system is forecast to be followed up by a much, much stronger system that is showing the potential of bringing significant amounts of warm air to the eastern Prairies. The potential for daytime highs above 0°C returns for the second half of next week.

Of course, along with any big warm-up, the potential exists for some particularly uncomfortable days with strong southerly winds and it’s currently unclear on where exactly precipitation associated with these systems will fall. More on that later this week!

The normal daytime high for Winnipeg is currently -9°C and the normal overnight low is -20°C.

Seasonal Temperatures & Occasional Snow

Brad Leave a comment

Near-seasonal temperatures are on the way for Winnipeg through the remainder of this week with multiple chances for light snow as several weak disturbances slide across the region.

Today’s weather will be dictated by a weak low pressure system moving through the region that will spread more cloud and snow across Southern Manitoba. Although the snow will be widespread as it gradually pushes eastwards across the province, it will also be quite light. The grand-total for around 4-6 hours of snow will be just 1-2 cm, with some areas that see little-to-no accumulation. Here in Winnipeg, we’ll see some sun through the morning, then increasing cloud with some light snow starting late in the afternoon. It will be pleasant for early February, however, with daytime highs around -11°C and light winds. Expect temperatures to dip to around -15°C tonight under mainly cloudy skies.

RDPS-based precipitation forecast valid from 18Z - 06Z February 3/4, 2016
RDPS-based precipitation forecast showing snow over Manitoba through Wednesday afternoon & evening

Thursday will be a benign day with mainly cloudy skies, daytime highs once again near -11°C for Winnipeg, and light winds. There’s a very slight chance of some flurries thanks to the temperature profiles through the lower atmosphere, but if they do develop, they will be quite weak. Temperatures will drop to about -14°C on Thursday night with cloudy skies as the next low pressure system moves in from the west.

Friday will be another cloudy day with daytime highs climbing a couple degrees higher to around -9°C. There’s a decent chance of some flurry activity through the Red River Valley as the next low pressure system tracks through the region. Temperatures will dip to around -14°C on Friday night under cloudy skies.

Long Range

The long-range outlook shows a fairly significant pattern change next week, but not before things turn a little more unsettled.

Through the weekend and into the first half of next week, the weather looks to turn more unsettled as the storm track shifts over Manitoba. No major snowfalls are expected at this point, but several relatively strong lows will likely move through the region, at least bringing a little more variability to the temperature and some windy conditions at times.

GFS-based forecast of 850mb temperature anomalies for the end of next week
GFS-based forecast of 850mb temperature anomalies for the end of next week

A major large-scale pattern change begins early next week as the polar vortex slumps southwards into Northern Ontario as large scale upper-level ridging takes place over the west coast of North America. This combination will shift winds at all levels over Manitoba to northerlies straight out of the Arctic, and a surge of colder air will blast southwards in response. This will likely happen in multiple stages with a weaker shot mid-week and then a stronger surge at the end of the week. The image above shows the GFS forecasting 850mb temperatures [1] over 10°C below normal for next Friday.

If this forecast comes to fruition, then through the latter half of next week daytime highs would fall into the -15 to -20°C range.

The colder air doesn’t appear to be likely to stick around for too long, though, with seasonal temperatures building back in by the end of the weekend.

Seasonal daytime highs in Winnipeg for early February are -10°C while seasonal the overnight lows are -21°C.

  1. 850mb is approximately 1.5km above the ground.  ↩

Seasonal Conditions Early This Week

Scott Leave a comment

This week will start out with near seasonal conditions as temperatures stick near the -10C mark.

Today will see temperatures around or just above -10C. Skies will be mainly cloudy with a chance of flurries as a weak system passes to our south. Given the slack pressure gradient over southern Manitoba, winds will remain light and variable.

Tuesday will be slightly cooler than Monday, with temperatures around or just below -10C. An arctic air mass to the north will continue gradually sliding southward, allowing slightly colder weather to prevail. The drying associated with this colder air mass is expected to help clear skies a bit, although it looks like we won’t see completely sunny skies, but rather a mix of sun and cloud. Winds will be north-westerly at about 20km/h.

RDPS Temperature Forecast valid Monday afternoon
Forecast temperatures mid-afternoon across the Prairies on Monday

Wednesday will remain near seasonal, with temperatures once again just below -10C. Skies will become cloudy again as an upper-level impulse moves through the region. This impulse may bring a few flurries to southern Manitoba, but nothing significant. Winds will shift to southerly at around 20km/h.

Long Range

Models still aren’t showing a strong signal for what the long range forecast may entail. Based on the trends in the guidance, it looks more probable that February will cooler than normal than warmer than normal, but that is just an educated guess at this point.

A Stretch of Above-Seasonal Temperatures

Scott Leave a comment

The weather this week will remain well above seasonal with high temperatures generally in the minus single digits.

Today will be mainly cloudy with a good chance of flurries as a strong upper-level disturbance passes through southern Manitoba. No significant accumulations of snow are expected. Temperatures will be in the mid minus single digits with north-westerly winds at 20-30km/h.

Skies should clear on Tuesday as a drying north-west flow persists over the region. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than Monday, but still in the minus single digits. Winds will generally be light and variable.

A strong low pressure system will be the focus of Wednesday’s weather in southern Manitoba. A warm front will pass through during the day, bringing with it a small, but heavy band of snowfall. Given the warmth of the air associated with this front, there is a chance of some mixed phase precipitation in some areas, but it’s too early to discuss those details. It appears that 2-4 cm of snow is probable with this system, but again that total should be revisited closer to the event.

Long Range

CPC 6-10 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast
The CPC’s 6-10 day temperature anomaly forecast shows a strong return to El Nino winter conditions.

In the longer range it appears we’ll see above-seasonal weather last for the rest of the week before more normal weather returns next week. Long range models aren’t showing a clear signal for February’s weather at this time, which suggests fluctuations between above and below normal conditions.