Cloudy conditions return to Winnipeg as temperatures finally climb back towards seasonal values for a couple days.
Seasonal temperatures will finally return to Winnipeg today as warmer air spreads eastwards across southern Manitoba. The city will see temperatures climb to a high near 0°C with southerly winds near 30 km/h. Some sunshine may appear through the morning hours, but the cloud cover should thicken up this afternoon. Skies will remain mixed to mostly cloudy overnight with temperatures dipping to a low near -4°C.
Thursday will be a slightly more active day as an upper-level disturbance ripples southeastwards through the province. As it moves into the region in the morning, it will spread light snow with a risk of freezing rain across the Red River Valley. Temperatures will be climbing towards a high near 0°C, so if freezing rain materializes there may be a few hours in the morning where untreated surfaces become quite slippery. The risk for freezing rain should end by lunchtime as cooler air begins pushing in from the north. Light snow will continue through much of the afternoon, then taper off in the evening. This band of precipitation will likely leave behind 2 to 4 cm of snow in its wake.
Where exactly this activity moves through is uncertain, though. Forecast models have been varying the position of the band of snow from Winnipeg to as far south as North Dakota. The general consensus at this point is that most of the precipitation will likely pass south of Winnipeg, closer to the American border. This outcome would leave Winnipeg with just mostly cloudy skies for the day.
A narrow band of snow and/or freezing rain will move through Manitoba on Thursday, likely passing south of Winnipeg either through the southern Red River Valley or across northern North Dakota.
Winds will start off calm in the morning and slowly pick up out of the northwest to around 20 km/h. Expect a mostly cloudy night with a continued chance of flurries and a low near -9°C.
Friday will bring much cooler temperatures back to the region as an Arctic air mass plunges southwards behind Thursday’s system. Winnipeg’s temperature will barely recover, reaching just -6°C. Winds will persist out of the northwest at 20 to 30 km/h and skies will remain mostly cloudy. There will be a continued chance for flurries through the day. Temperatures will head to a cold overnight low near -15°C on Friday night with mixed skies.
Long Range Outlook
Generally dry conditions are forecast through the weekend into the first half of next week, but temperatures will remain well below seasonal values. Some indications are that temperatures may moderate in the middle of next week, but the jury is still out on how believable that optimism may be.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -1°C while the seasonal overnight low is -9°C.
Winnipeg will finally get prolonged relief from the bitter cold as significantly warmer temperatures will be in place for the next 5-7 days.
Winnipeg will likely see the “best all-around” day of the next week today, as clear skies combine with relatively light west-southwest winds of 15-25 km/h and a high near -2°C to make for simply gorgeous January conditions. Cloud over tonight with a good chance for a bit of light snow to move through but no accumulations are expected. Temperatures will dip to a low near -11°C.
Thursday will bring slightly cooler temperatures to Winnipeg with a daytime high near -4°C and light southerly winds. Skies will remain mostly cloudy for the day, so it’ll end up a bit of a sloppier, dreary day particularly when compared to Wednesday’s bright sunny skies. The cloud will thicken up on Thursday night as a low pressure system races eastwards out of northern Alberta. Temperatures will actually rise to around -1°C by Friday morning as that Alberta low pushes warmer air into the region overnight.
Significantly milder air will spread across southern Manitoba on Thursday night
Friday morning may bring a complication to the morning commute: the potential for freezing rain. As the low pressure system passes through the Interlake, it is expected to develop an area of showers over the Red River Valley.1 The biggest uncertainty is when exactly the showers move in, as temperatures should climb above 0°C by mid-morning. With the day starting near -1°C, it’s likely that treated roads won’t have too much trouble if the rain begins before it climbs above freezing, but extra caution should be taken on side streets and bridges.
The forecast sounding for Friday morning shows moisture streaming in above a prominent above-freezing layer with sub-freezing surface temperatures
The chance of showers should taper off by afternoon, and temperatures will climb to a high near +2°C with winds out of the west-southwest at 10 to 20 km/h. Friday night may bring a bit of clearing as temperatures head to a low near -8°C.
Long Range Outlook
The weekend will continue to bring above-seasonal temperatures, but not quite as significantly as during the week. Daytime highs of -5 to -8°C are expected on Saturday and Sunday with overnight lows both nights near -13°C. Plenty of cloud will remain in place for the weekend. Fortunately, winds will remain light so all in all it should be easy to get outside and enjoy some winter activities!
Temperatures are then expected to return to near-seasonal values next week with daytime highs in the -10 to -15°C range and overnight lows approaching -20°C.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -13°C while the seasonal overnight low is -23°C.
At this point, it looks like the showers will develop along the upper-level jet that will run from southeastern Montana northeastwards into the Red River Valley then arc straight eastwards into Ontario, roughly aligning along the cold front, across the triple point, and down the warm front associated with the Interlake low. ↩
A winter storm rapidly developing over North Dakota will spread snow, freezing rain and showers into Manitoba today, along with increasingly strong northwesterly winds. Conditions will deteriorate rapidly this morning over western Manitoba, while the Red River Valley and southeastern Manitoba see conditions deteriorate later this afternoon when temperatures begin to drop and any showers change over to snow.
Winnipeg Forecast
Warm air will be reinforced over the Red River Valley ahead of this low pressure system as east to southeasterly winds increase to around 30 gusting 50 km/h develop, keeping temperatures mild with highs near 3°C today. An area of showers will develop as the main low centre lifts into the province out of North Dakota a bit later in the morning, spreading northwards through the afternoon. Rainfall totals throughout the Red River Valley will be variable thanks to the showery nature of the rain, but in general between 2-10mm seems most likely. If some more intense showers develop, there may be a chance for isolated accumulations of 10-20 mm.
Winds will taper off late this afternoon into the early evening as the centre of the low passes through the region. As it moves off to the northeast, winds will then abruptly strengthen out of the west to northwest at 40-50 km/h with gusts up to 70 km/h. Temperatures will quickly drop below zero as some wrap-around snow moves into the Red River Valley.
While some earlier forecasts were showing significant snowfall in the Red River Valley, it looks like the bulk of the snow with this storm will fall over western and northern Manitoba. Here in the valley, the best current indications are that we’ll see a couple centimetres of snow. There are a few outlier models that suggest a secondary shortwave could produce heavy snow over the region in the second half of the night, but I don’t have a lot of confidence in that. I’ll be providing updates via our Facebook and Twitter pages tomorrow night.
RDPS Snowfall Forecast valid Monday Night (00-12Z Tuesday March 7, 2016)
GFS Snowfall Forecast valid Monday Night (00-12Z Tuesday March 7, 2016)
NAM Snowfall Forecast valid Monday Night (00-12Z Tuesday March 7, 2016)
The strong winds will persist all night, which when combined with a couple centimetres of new snow may be enough to create local areas of poor visibilities in blowing snow. Temperatures will drop to a low near -10°C.
Tuesday will bring more periods of snow to the Red River Valley with continuing strong winds out of the west. Temperatures will remain steady near around -11 or -12°C. Temperatures will drop to around -16°C on Tuesday night with more strong winds. Any remaining light snow should taper off overnight.
Wednesday will bring an end to the influence of this storm system. The clouds should break up a bit as the winds taper off through the day. Temperatures will remain cool with a high near -10°C. Expect some more clear breaks overnight as an Arctic ridge pushes into the region. Temperatures will fall well below normal with a low near -19°C.
The Big Picture
Rainfall
Rainfall will be the primary story for much of southern Manitoba today as an area of showers develops ahead of a warm front lifting northwards from the United States.
Areas in Manitoba that will see rainfall today.
The biggest unknown is exactly how much rain will fall, which will depend on how intense the area of showers can manage to develop. At the moment it looks like most areas will see 2-5 mm, however there is the potential for higher widespread amounts of 10-15 mm further north in the Interlake. Should any potent convective cells develop, which may happen anywhere in the rain area today, they may be capable of producing isolated accumulations of 10-20 mm.
The rain will move out of the province this evening, replaced by snow.
Freezing Rain
The risk of freezing rain will appear today through western Manitoba into the Interlake.
Freezing rain is possible over western Manitoba & the Interlake today and into tonight.
The threat for freezing rain will move into western Manitoba this morning and persist until midday. Accumulating freezing rain is possible, with the risk for several mm of ice accumulation. This threat will then lift into the Interlake for the afternoon and onwards into northern Manitoba tonight.
Snowfall
The major impact from this storm will the snowfall and associated winds.
A major snowfall event will occur over eastern Saskatchewan, western Manitoba and northern Manitboa with this winter storm.
The snow is already falling across eastern Saskatchewan and northern Manitoba and will spread eastwards into western Manitoba for the afternoon. Snowfall amounts will be major, with upwards of 40-50 cm expected to fall through the heaviest band in Northern Manitoba. Further south, a north-south swath of 10-30 cm will pile up by Tuesday morning. There will be a relatively sharp cut-off from the heavy snow to just minor accumulations on both the eastern/southeastern and western flanks.
This heavy snow will combine with strong northwest to westerly winds to produce an extended period of blizzard conditions, likely lasting over 24 hours. If you are in the areas that will see heavy snow move in today, it will be best to avoid all travel until conditions improve.
Long Range
Once everything finally calms down on Wednesday, we’ll move into an extended period of below-normal temperatures with daytime highs falling to the mid-minus teens and lows falling below -20°C. No precipitation is expected in the second half of the week.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -4°C while the seasonal overnight low is -14°C.
Very mild temperatures will spread into Southern Manitoba this week sending daytime highs soaring to over 10°C above normal for mid-January.
The week will start with one more day with seasonal temperatures in Winnipeg & the Red River Valley as mainly sunny skies combine with light winds as temperatures climb to a high near -6°C. Temperatures will dip to around -11°C tonight as winds begin to pick up from the south in advance of an incoming warm front.
Tuesday and Wednesday will bring the arrival of warmer weather to the region as a warm front sweeps eastwards across the province. Tuesday will see winds increasing out of the south to around 30-40 km/h while temperatures climb to a high near -3°C late in the day. The winds will diminish in the evening and temperatures will dip to a low near -5 or -6°C. On Wednesday, the warm air will push even further east, sending daytime highs to the 0°C mark in the Red River Valley with fairly light winds. Expect temperatures to dip down to around -2 or -3°C on Wednesday night.
The forecast 850mb temperatures show clearly the push of mild air across the Prairies through mid-week.
Both Tuesday and Wednesday have some uncertainty as to how much cloud will move in. At best, we could expect mixed skies, however I think it will lean towards the cloudier side than the sunnier side. Having fairly cloudy conditions as we warm up to the freezing mark in January would not exactly be uncommon for this area.
Long Range
The second half of the week will continue to bring mild temperatures with daytime highs near the freezing mark and variable cloudiness. Heading into the weekend, it begins to appear that the weather will begin to get a bit busier as the storm track shifts towards our region. It looks like, at this point, Saturday may bring a chance of rain or freezing rain, but amounts would be fairly light. The remainder of the weekend looks cloudy and mild.
Heading into the start of next week, models are beginning to converge on the development of another Colorado Low that would impact our region. It’s still very early, so as usual plenty can change between now and then, but at the moment it appears that this system could bring snow into Winnipeg & the Red River Valley sometime Monday and persist through Tuesday. Forecast storm total amounts are generally in the 10-20 cm right now. We’ll be keeping an eye on this system as we get closer and things begin to shape up more.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -13°C while the seasonal overnight low is -24°C.
