After last week’s record breaking heat and overall sunny conditions, our soggy April has quickly turned into a dry May. This week should finally feature some much needed rain, although how much remains to be seen.

Today will be our last hot, sunny day before cooler and greyer conditions build in for the rest of the week. Temperatures are expected to reach the mid twenties over southern Manitoba with a breezy south wind. Skies will likely remain somewhat hazy as smoke from the forest fires over Northern Alberta continues to linger. Enjoy what could be the last hot day for awhile!

Tuesday will remain mild, but some rainfall is expected as a strong low pressure system pushes up from the south. Showery rains are expected throughout the day, although it will be hard to make an accurate forecast for how much rain will fall. At this point it appears that 2-6 mm is a reasonable range, although some areas may see no rain, while others see more than 6 mm. Winds will be south-easterly at 30 km/h gusting to 50 km/h, while temperatures sit in the upper teens.

Wednesday will see the low pressure system from Tuesday continue to stick around and bring more rain to southern Manitoba. Accumulations of 2-6 mm will be possible once again on Wednesday, with the same caveat that amounts will vary on a localized basis. Temperatures will remain in the upper teens, with southerly winds of 20-30 km/h.

Long Range

It appears that the rest of this week will be on the cooler side as we experience a brisk northerly flow behind the low pressure system that brought us the rainfall. Models suggest that the remainder of the first half of May will stay normal to below normal in terms of temperature, before warmer conditions return again for the second half of May. Most long range/seasonal guidance suggests that this summer will generally be warmer than normal, although it is notoriously difficult to predict summer weather in the long range!