A clipper-like system ejecting from the Rockies and set to race eastwards across the Prairies will merge with a low pressure system stalled over Southern Manitoba produce widespread snow over the region Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Cloud cover will increase late this afternoon as the incoming low pushes into southern Manitoba, with an area of precipitation spreading eastwards across the region. Initial phases of precipitation will likely be rain or freeing rain before switching over to snow in the second half of the night. Temperatures will hover near the 0°C mark for much of the night, bottoming out at just –1 or –2°C.

Freezing rain potential exists, but overall it looks like actual amounts would be fairly limited, with just 1–2mm in the worst-hit areas. This will still be enough to make roads quite slippery, though, so if you’re driving tonight, be sure to take extra care.

Snowfall will be limited south of the Trans-Canada highway and likely more characterized by a passing band of snow, then a pause before wrap-around snow pushes in on the back-side of this system. Further north, somewhere near the Trans-Canada highway, a west to east band of snow will set up along the northern edge of the low track and will produce the most snow, with general amounts of 5–10cm expected. There will be the risk of amounts in the 10–20cm range for localized areas of upslope flow along the eastern slopes of the Riding Mountains.

The snow will continue falling through much of Thursday here in Winnipeg and the Red River Valley before tapering off in the evening. The snow will be accompanied by gusty northerly winds of 30 gusting 50km/h. Expect the winds to taper off and skies to clear on Thursday night with temperatures dropping to about –6°C.

Friday will be a relatively nice day, however we’ll be stuck between a low pressure system passing to our south and an Arctic ridge to our north. This will keep temperatures limited to around –3°C for a daytime high and bring a chance of some flurry activity through the afternoon as mixed skies develop over the region. Fortunately, winds won’t be too much of an issue. Clouds will likely hang around on Friday night as we head to a low near –7°C.

Long Range

While the cooler temperatures in the forecast may be disappointing to some who have been enjoying this stretch of incredible early-winter warmth, there’s not too much room for complaining as the overnight lows this week are just dipping towards what the normal daytime high is for this time of year.

There’s some uncertainty as to what the weekend will bring, but overall it should be a fairly quiet weekend with seasonal to slightly above seasonal temperatures. Little to no snow is expected.

Over the next week, no additional snow is expected, and again, above-seasonal temperatures are expected to build back into the region. The fresh snowpack that will develop after tonight’s snow will likely preclude significant stretches of above–0°C weather, but with daytime highs dropping by the day, it’s nice that the –30°C deep freeze isn’t anywhere to be seen.